2008 Swing State Analysis

[Tender Branson]

Giuliani vs. Clinton


As of October 2007 there are:

Toss-Up: 11 states (132 EV)

Lean Clinton: 14 states (220 EV)

Lean Giuliani: 8 states (96 EV)

Not yet polled: 17 states + DC (90 EV)


Explanation:

I´m using the latest Giuliani vs. Clinton poll in each state. A lead of 5% or less is considered a "Toss-Up", a lead of 5% or more is considered as "Lean".

Other candidates are not included, because A) there are not enough state polls for other matchups and B) Clinton and Giuliani already have about 100% name recognition, whereas a Clinton vs. Romney map would look freakishly red.


Map:

[Gustaf]

Adding the other states based on 2004 gives this:

[Tender Branson]

Adding the other states based on 2004 gives this:

If you look at this SurveyUSA KY tracking chart of Clinton vs. Giuliani and the fact that we have not seen any IN poll, we can assume that the whole northeast will be competetive with Giuliani as nominee. Kerry never lead in any KY, TN, WV and VA poll and he just led once by a single point in AR (where Clinton is currently leading by 20%) and by 3% in a single Zogby poll (where we have also seen a Clinton lead so far in the latest Rasmussen poll.)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Hillary Clinton: 267
Rudy Giuliani: 160
Tossup: 111

[Gustaf]

I don't quite follow your reasoning...what does Kentucky has to do with the Northeast? My reasoning on the Northeast is that New Hampshire and New Jersey, in that order, were the two states where Bush came closest in 2004. In fact, those two were the only ones that one can say were competitive. Hence, I think Clinton would win the rest, even if Guliani performs better than Bush did in the Northeast. He may cut the margins down some in places like Connecticut or Maine but I doubt it will be enough to put them seriously in play.