New Mexico Senate 2008: Survey USA Polls
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Adlai Stevenson
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« on: October 09, 2007, 09:25:43 AM »

10 Possible Head-to-Head U.S. Senate Pairings Tested for Domenici NM Seat: When 5 possible New Mexico Democrats are paired-off against 2 possible New Mexico Republicans, in the contest to replace U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, who announced 10/04/07 his decision to retire from the Senate, Republicans win 5 match-ups and hold the seat, Democrats win 4 match-ups and take-away the seat, and one pairing is a tie, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV. Starting with Republican candidate  Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District: Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall  by 18 points, loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points, defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points, defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points, and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points. Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce), loses to  Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce), defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce), effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce), and defeats  Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce). Said the opposite way: Richardson and Udall defeat either Republican, and take-away the seat for Democrats. Wiviott is defeated by either Republican. Chavez and Madrid both are competitive against Wilson. All of the above is true today, 10/08/07, 56 weeks to the General Election on 11/04/08, but much can and will change as the contest begins to take shape.

SurveyUSA has been tracking Senator Domenici's Job Approval monthly for 29 consecutive months. On 09/25/07, SurveyUSA reported that Domenici's Job Approval had fallen to 41%, the first time in 29 months that the Senator's Disapproval number, 54%, had been higher than his approval number. 9 days later, Domenici announced his intention to retire. In interviews conducted over the 3 days immediately following Domenici's announcement to step down, approval of Domenici shoots back up to 59%, higher than it has been in 8 months. This may be in sympathy for a medical condition that the Senator revealed, or it may be a reflection of constituents approving of the Senator's decision to step down. By contrast, and as a control on Domenici's numbers, U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman's Job Approval went up (a statistically insignificant) 1 point from 09/25/07 to today, while Domenici's Approval went up 18 points. Additional tracking in future months will put today's Job Approval numbers into perspective.
 
U.S. Senator Pete Domenici announced 10/04/07 his decision to not seek re-election to a 7th term in the U.S. Senate. 625 New Mexico adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA on the next 3 days, 10/05/07 through 10/07/07. Adults were asked to rate both sitting New Mexico Senators. Of the 625 adults, 514 were registered to vote in New Mexico. The registered voters only were asked about the head-to-head candidate pairings. As this survey was going into the field on 10/05/07, Tom Udall announced that he was not a candidate to replace Domenici. Because of the potential for learning, SurveyUSA elected to leave Udall's name in the rotation of candidate pairings.

NEW MEXICO SENATE -
37% (R) Pearce
55% (D) Udall


36% (R) Pearce
60% (D) Richardson


56% (R) Pearce
35% (D) Chavez


54% (R) Pearce
38% (D) Madrid


58% (R) Pearce
23% (D) Wiviott


38% (R) Wilson
56% (D) Udall


35% (R) Wilson
62% (D) Richardson


48% (R) Wilson
44% (D) Chavez


46% (R) Wilson
45% (D) Madrid


51% (R) Wilson
34% (D) Wiviott


APPROVALS:
Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) 59%-33%

Senator Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) 59%-30%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0c284bce-cac2-4c56-88c2-3f35c6b617bf
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2007, 10:33:22 AM »

So Pearce, the more Conservative Republican, is a stronger candidate than Wilson, the Republican more closely associated with the Bush administration. And Chavez, for all his moderatism, isn't a particularly strong candidate. (Maybe the rural parts of the state, Dem or Rep, don't want to vote for the mayor of Albuquerque?)
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2007, 02:21:34 PM »

I hope Pearce wins the nomination he is the weaker opponent.
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Padfoot
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« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2007, 12:06:01 AM »

So Pearce, the more Conservative Republican, is a stronger candidate than Wilson, the Republican more closely associated with the Bush administration. And Chavez, for all his moderatism, isn't a particularly strong candidate. (Maybe the rural parts of the state, Dem or Rep, don't want to vote for the mayor of Albuquerque?)

Chavez has less statewide name recognition which is essentially all this very early poll shows about him.  The telling results are the Udall pairings in which he stomps the other well known Republicans.  Basically, all this poll is saying is that Democrats are more popular than Republicans.
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