IN-09: Battle #4 begins - Sodrel to challenge Hill again in 2008

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/Sodrel_announces_comeback_bid_against_Hill_.html

Gotta love blood feuds....

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I laughed when I heard about this. Everyone else did, right?

[minionofmidas]

-_-

[JohnnyLongtorso]

for comparison's sake, here's the last three elections in IN-9:

2006

Hill (D) - 110,454 (50.0%)
Sodrel (R) - 100,469 (45.5%)
Schansberg (L) - 9,893 (4.5%)

2004

Sodrel (R) - 142,197 (49.4%)
Hill (D) - 140,772 (49.0%)
Cox (L) - 4,541 (1.6%)

2002

Hill (D) - 96,654 (51.1%)
Sodrel (R) - 87,169 (46.1%)
Melton (write-in) - 2,745 (1.5%)
Cox (L) - 2,389 (1.3%)

the question is, can the Sodrel people come up with as catchy a slogan as "Bring Back Baron"?

[Mr.Phips]

Im skeptical as to whether Sodrel can beat Hill again.  The only reason he came to Congress in 2004 was because Bush won the district by 19 points and pulled him over the top.  I don't think any Republican nominee can win the district by as much as Bush won it in 2004. 

[Sam Spade]

Im skeptical as to whether Sodrel can beat Hill again.  The only reason he came to Congress in 2004 was because Bush won the district by 19 points and pulled him over the top.  I don't think any Republican nominee can win the district by as much as Bush won it in 2004. 

That could definitely be true, although I think both you and I would agree that out of the three CDs in Indiana the Republicans lost in 2006, this is the CD the Republicans have the best chance of picking up, by far.

[Mr.Phips]

Im skeptical as to whether Sodrel can beat Hill again.  The only reason he came to Congress in 2004 was because Bush won the district by 19 points and pulled him over the top.  I don't think any Republican nominee can win the district by as much as Bush won it in 2004. 

That could definitely be true, although I think both you and I would agree that out of the three CDs in Indiana the Republicans lost in 2006, this is the CD the Republicans have the best chance of picking up, by far.

Oh, without a doubt.  But I think Hill still has the edge due to incumbency and the fact that he has won two out of three of their previous matchups. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It seems to me that this would be the kind of district that would abhor having Hillary Clinton as President along with a Democratic congress.  That's going to be tough for Hill.

[Mr.Phips]

It seems to me that this would be the kind of district that would abhor having Hillary Clinton as President along with a Democratic congress.  That's going to be tough for Hill.

That's somewhat true, but the affect you are talking about would be more likely to happen in a midterm.  This is one district where the Democrat would be helped if Guiliani pulled well ahead of Clinton after the Republican convention, and it would look like Clinton wasn't going to win anyway.  This is what helped Democratic House candidates in 1988. 

[MarkWarner08]

It seems to me that this would be the kind of district that would abhor having Hillary Clinton as President along with a Democratic congress.  That's going to be tough for Hill.

Which Hill?

The other House seat with a recent history of such bitter and close rematches is MA-06.

Freshman GOP Rep. Peter Torkildsen won a 3% victory in 1994 over Democrat John Tierney. Two years later, Tierney narrowly upset Torkildsen by 360 votes. They reprised their enmity filled general election tussles in 1998; Tierney won that bout by double digits. If John Tierney had won a few hundred more votes in the 1992 Democratic primary, he might have matched the Hill-Sodrel feat of four straight matchups pairing the same opponents.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Just to make the rematch complete, 2006 Libertarian nominee Eric Schansberg also jumped in to ensure all three men enjoy a November 2008 ballot reunion. Expect a close race yet again, with Hill holding a slight advantage.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Democratic Hawk]

Hill's a decent, thoughtful, somewhat independent Democratic congressman; Sodrel was just some bum-on-a-seat who slavishly followed the Bush and GOP line

Dave

[Adlai Stevenson]

"There have been intense rivalries between candidates in many of the nation’s congressional districts, and rematches of closely contested races are not uncommon. But few one-on-one matchups have endured as long as that in Indiana’s 9th District, between Democratic Rep. Baron P. Hill and Republican former Rep. Mike Sodrel -- whose announcement that he is running again in the 2008 contest sets up a re-re-rematch between the two," CQ reports.

"Voters in the mostly conservative-leaning southeastern part of Indiana have to go back to the year 2000 for a House general election that wasn’t Hill vs. Sodrel. Hill, a centrist Democrat who was first elected to the House in 1998, won his first matchup with Sodrel -- the owner of a trucking, shipping and motor coach company -- by a 5 percentage-point margin in 2002. Sodrel then captured the seat for the GOP in 2004 by a margin of half a percentage point. But Hill rebounded to take the seat back, defeating Sodrel by fractionally less than 5 points in a campaign year marked by Republican setbacks nationwide."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/11/its_sodrel_vs_hill_again_in_in9.html

[Rococo4]

absurd

[Jaggerjack]

Haha.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hill is favored, since he can expect to do slightly better than in 2004, and he only has to do slightly better to win. Prior to that, the district last voted Republican in 1962.

[MarkWarner08]

Hill is favored, since he can expect to do slightly better than in 2004, and he only has to do slightly better to win. Prior to that, the district last voted Republican in 1962.

It nearly voted Republican in 1992 and 1996. It also sided with Bush in 2000. IN-09 is a true swing district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Hill is favored, since he can expect to do slightly better than in 2004, and he only has to do slightly better to win. Prior to that, the district last voted Republican in 1962.

It nearly voted Republican in 1992 and 1996. It also sided with Bush in 2000. IN-09 is a true swing district.

As much a "swing district" as an R+7 district can be, I suppose.