TN-4: Davis Announces Early for Tennessee Governor

[Adlai Stevenson]

Although the election to replace term-limited Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) won’t be until 2010, Rep. Lincoln Davis (D-TN) has already announced his intention to run for the seat, according to the Memphis Commercial Appeal.

Davis likely announced early to preempt popular former Congressman and current leader of the DLC Harold Ford from running for the governorship -- a position in which he has expressed considerable interest. The two are close, with Davis having served as campaign chair for Ford’s unsuccessful 2006 senate bid. Davis explained, “I would imagine that if I’m in the race, he’ll step aside."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/09/davis_announces_early_for_tennessee_governor.html

This means TN-4 will probably be an open-seat in the 2010 midterms, and I would imagine the GOP might already be viewing it as a pickup given the elections are likely to occur in the second year of a Democratic Presidency.

TN-4 voted 58%-41% for George W. Bush in 2004, after giving him a 50%-49% victory in 2000.

[TheresNoMoney]

I imagine this will be a Republican pickup, especially if a Democrat wins the presidency.

[MarkWarner08]

What a dick.

Announcing three years before the election didn't used to happen, did it?

Didn't  Jay Nixon do the same thing in MO?

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know why Davis would do this to Democrats.  They would almost certainly lose this seat without him running. 

[AndrewTX]

What I hate about that is that the people of the 4th are going to re-elect him in 2008 anyways, just so that he can spend those next two years spending most of his time getting ready to campaign for Governor.
 

[Brittain33]

I don't know why Davis would do this to Democrats.  They would almost certainly lose this seat without him running. 

Why are you so sure? He won it from a departing Republican in 2002, hardly a good year for Democrats in Tennessee or anywhere. Democrats still have quite a bench in the state.

[Jake]

In the district is what matters. Don't want to run in a Republican leaning district with the carpetbagger tag.

[Brittain33]

In the district is what matters. Don't want to run in a Republican leaning district with the carpetbagger tag.

Do we have any reason to believe there aren't Democrats in this district in the state legislature? This isn't South Carolina or Texas, middle Tennessee still (to the best of my knowledge) still elects plenty of Democrats. Yes, it's tough to make the transition from state to federal, but Lincoln Davis did it in modern times. This district was drawn to be competitive for Democrats vs. the 1990s edition.

[Jake]

"quite a bench" is now random state legislators?

[Brittain33]

"quite a bench" is now random state legislators?

For a seat in the House of Representatives? Absolutely, it is. Where do you think most Representatives come from, and what is the biggest obstacle to electing Republicans in Massachusetts or Democrats in Florida?

Remember, I was responding to the argument that this district is a certain loss for the Democrats if Davis leaves. The existence of state legislators (which, I grant, is hypothetical right now because I'm not going to the TN web site) means that Democrats have people they can run there.

[Speed of Sound]

Does anybody really believe this is going to stop Ford from running?

Ford knows he doesnt have many more chances, and this is a great opportunity. Expect him to come into this race pretty early, and win.

[Jake]

"quite a bench" is now random state legislators?

For a seat in the House of Representatives? Absolutely, it is. Where do you think most Representatives come from, and what is the biggest obstacle to electing Republicans in Massachusetts or Democrats in Florida?

Remember, I was responding to the argument that this district is a certain loss for the Democrats if Davis leaves. The existence of state legislators (which, I grant, is hypothetical right now because I'm not going to the TN web site) means that Democrats have people they can run there.

Quite a bench is a number of candidates with both personal popularity and some political skill, money doesn't hurt either. If their bench consists of a few ho-hum state legislators who are party line political hacks, at least they have some bench.

This guy might be a likely candidate:
32nd District - Dennis Ferguson (49 in 2010) - Majority Floor Leader

[Brittain33]

Quite a bench is a number of candidates with both personal popularity and some political skill, money doesn't hurt either. If their bench consists of a few ho-hum state legislators who are party line political hacks, at least they have some bench.

Fair enough!