As per Zogby, Bush is in a big trouble.

[Shira]

Zogby has been recently sharply criticized on his methodology.
Remember however, that his 2000 predictions were very good.
Secondly, if the methodology is bad, why should it consistently be biased to the Dems ?
The guy is a professional pollster and would not jeopardize his reputation by involving his personal political views (which I don’t know what they are)  

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[Blue Rectangle]

Zogby's behavior at the DNC

Hardly a chilling indictment, but he does seem to be crossing a line.  Also, if his opinion that "Bush is in big trouble" relies on AZ being a swing state, then I'm not very worried.

[agcatter]

Yes, Zogby says in the article that Bush's base has eroded in the South.  Rolling my eyes.  Of course, according to Zogby, Bush is behind in Tennessee.  It's going to be a tough, close election without listening to nonsense like this.

[Shira]

Zogby's behavior at the DNC

Hardly a chilling indictment, but he does seem to be crossing a line.  Also, if his opinion that "Bush is in big trouble" relies on AZ being a swing state, then I'm not very worried.

As to AZ, better don't be so confident. In 2000 Bush ( + Buchanan ) got there 51.75%. Since 1988 the GOP in AZ is constantly declining by 0.37% per year. If this trend continues, then in 2004 they are going to get 50.2% which is on verge of a defeat.

[agcatter]

This is the same Zogby who says Bush is behind in Tennessee.  Nuff said.

[Lunar]

Zogby got ninth best in 2000, not really that amazing.

He consistantly gets absurd results that bounce all over the place, and his polling of races from 2002 on prove this.  He should be getting results outside the margin of error 1 out of every 20 times, not getting results INSIDE that often.

And Zogby is a Democrat.

[MarkDel]

As I've said in several posts on this subject, you have to treat Zogby and his polling as two distinct eras...pre 9/11 and post 9/11. Early in his career, he was totally objective and never let his own left wing bias enter into the equation. But after 9/11, he has allowed his anti-Bush sentiments to grow stronger and stronger almost by the month, hence his incredibly inaccurate predictions in 2002 that ALL overestimated support for Democratic candidates. You have to remember that Zogby is fiercely pro-Muslim because of his Arab-American heritage, and he has expressed his hatred of Bush's Middle East policies on many occasions over the past few years. Essentially, nothing he says can be trusted anymore...it would be like Newt Gingrich running a polling service that always seemed to overestimate Republican strength...Zogby REALLY is that useless at this point in practical terms. However, he does serve a major purpose because of his once esteemed role in polling. When he comes out with a poll, the media reports it as huge information no matter how ridiculous that poll may seem. For example, his latest poll shows Bush leading Kerry by just 2% in THE SOUTH...how can anyone take anything he says seriously again???

[The Duke]

Shira,

As Lunar showed, Zogby has not been very accurate recently.

I'll Dig up the chart where Vorlon contrasts Zogby's accuracy to Gallup's.

[agcatter]

Agree completely with how Zogby polled prior to 9-11 and after.  He and his brother have a definite agenda.

[ATFFL]

I'll repost my analysis on what has happened to Zogby this year.


In the primaries he was the first person to notice the shift in Iowa.  He applied his filters to get to the likely voters and came out with numbers that were near exact.  He got a ton of media play for his accuracy and everyone looked to see if he could repeat it in New Hampshire.

NH comes and he has numbers showing an increasingly tight race.  At the last minute he decides one day of bad polling is throwing him off and revamps his final numbers.  Results come in and he is again nearly exact.

At this point I think he stopped think his polls were an accurate reflection of reality/the electorate and started believing that reality/the electorate changed to represent his polls.  Further good polling in the primaries reinforced this belief.

So Kerry is the presumptive nominee and Zogby personally supports him and believes that his polls create reality.  He then comes out with an analysis that has no solid basis in reality that Bush cannot win the election and Kerry would have to lose it.

To his surprise the electorate does not change to reflect this.

So he starts releasing some bad national polling data which paints a far worse picture of the President than concurrent polls from other companies.

Again the electorate does not change to reflect his polls.

He is now a delusional man who cannot understand why reality is not changing to suit him like it did a few months earlier.  People who praised his polls in February are now openly mocking him on the air, including people who want to believe in his polls.

At this point he starts his Interactive Polling.  TO get attention back on him he needs either a wildly swinging race that only he can accurately predict and/or controversial data that only he supplies.  The Interactive Polls do both of these.

Several battle ground states swing wildly from one to the other with seemingly no stability.  Nevada, Ohio and Florida fit this description.

In the surprise data he has Tennessee.  TN goes from Bush up nearly 19% to dead even in 2 weeks, then Kerry gets a slight lead.  His is the only poll to reflect this.

He also needs Kerry to be up, but create the impression of an "anything can happen" race.  SO each update has wild swings in EV totals, with Kerry almost always on top.

He still gets no media play.  His credibility is in the toilet.  His Interactive Poll methodology links to his telephone polls methodology in a blatant misdirection to try and get some credibility.

His telephone polls, which were his last bastion of credibility, are also sinking fast.  He is nearly left with nothing.  He has gone from the top of the polling world after New Hampshire to next to nothing.

I shudder to think what he will do when he has nothing left.