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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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| |-+  2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
| | |-+  LA: Jindal far ahead of others, but below 50%
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Author Topic: LA: Jindal far ahead of others, but below 50%  (Read 13019 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 11, 2007, 07:17:34 am »

Jindal: 46%
Boasso: 10%
Georges: 9%
Campbell: 6%

Undecided: 29%

The poll of 641 registered voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 6 by the Southeastern Social Science Research Center at Southeastern in Hammond. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

In 2003, the university released a poll showing Jindal and then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco were neck and neck less than a week before the runoff election. Blanco, a Democrat, won by four percentage points.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/10446687.html
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2007, 02:15:50 pm »
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sigh, all these polls on the two blowout races, and not 1 on the closest of the 3 Sad
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« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2007, 02:24:59 pm »
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sigh, all these polls on the two blowout races, and not 1 on the closest of the 3 Sad

If there's been no polls, how do you know that the election in your state is the closest?
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« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2007, 03:16:20 pm »
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sigh, all these polls on the two blowout races, and not 1 on the closest of the 3 Sad

If there's been no polls, how do you know that the election in your state is the closest?

Because clearly, the Eaves-mentum is palapable.

Jindal need not worry he's under 50% here.  He's close enough to need only around one out of every eight or nine undecideds.
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« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2007, 02:22:24 am »
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If there's been no polls, how do you know that the election in your state is the closest?

You must not have been paying attention.  Eaves is totally going to upset Barbour with 125% of the black vote and 50% of the white vote for a total of 175%.
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« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2007, 03:11:07 pm »
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sigh, all these polls on the two blowout races, and not 1 on the closest of the 3 Sad

If there's been no polls, how do you know that the election in your state is the closest?
Polls on Louisiana, wishful thinking on Kentucky, and historical voting trends in Mississippi that make it pretty much technically impossible for the race not to be closer than Lousiana will be and he hopes Kentucky will be. It's actually not that unreasonable.
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« Reply #6 on: October 13, 2007, 03:20:17 pm »
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Jindal: 46%
Boasso: 10%
Georges: 9%
Campbell: 6%

Undecided: 29%

The poll of 641 registered voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 6 by the Southeastern Social Science Research Center at Southeastern in Hammond. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

In 2003, the university released a poll showing Jindal and then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco were neck and neck less than a week before the runoff election. Blanco, a Democrat, won by four percentage points.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/10446687.html

Honestly, how can they truly call this accurate when thats all they poll in a state of millions?  It makes no sense to me
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« Reply #7 on: October 13, 2007, 06:34:49 pm »
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Honestly, how can they truly call this accurate when thats all they poll in a state of millions?  It makes no sense to me

They call it accurate within whatever the Margin of Error is at the 95% confidence rate.  It's mathematically pretty sound.  After a while, it gets to the point of diminishing returns.
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2007, 06:40:53 pm »
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Jindal: 46%
Boasso: 10%
Georges: 9%
Campbell: 6%

Undecided: 29%

The poll of 641 registered voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 6 by the Southeastern Social Science Research Center at Southeastern in Hammond. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

In 2003, the university released a poll showing Jindal and then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco were neck and neck less than a week before the runoff election. Blanco, a Democrat, won by four percentage points.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/10446687.html

Honestly, how can they truly call this accurate when thats all they poll in a state of millions?  It makes no sense to me

Here's a quick primer.  It's all math—basic statistics and probability.
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2007, 10:46:16 pm »
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Jindal: 46%
Boasso: 10%
Georges: 9%
Campbell: 6%

Undecided: 29%

The poll of 641 registered voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 6 by the Southeastern Social Science Research Center at Southeastern in Hammond. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

In 2003, the university released a poll showing Jindal and then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco were neck and neck less than a week before the runoff election. Blanco, a Democrat, won by four percentage points.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/10446687.html

Honestly, how can they truly call this accurate when thats all they poll in a state of millions?  It makes no sense to me

As long as you have a truly random sample, there is a 95 percent proability that the race is within the stated margin of error.

The trick with getting a good poll is getting a truly random sample, and ensuring that every voter has an exactly equal chance of being polled. Obviously it's impossible to get a 100 percent random sample in reality, but firms such as Mason Dixon are obviously coming quite close given how accurate they tend to be.
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2007, 12:13:10 am »
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Jindal: 46%
Boasso: 10%
Georges: 9%
Campbell: 6%

Undecided: 29%

The poll of 641 registered voters was conducted Oct. 1 to Oct. 6 by the Southeastern Social Science Research Center at Southeastern in Hammond. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

In 2003, the university released a poll showing Jindal and then Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco were neck and neck less than a week before the runoff election. Blanco, a Democrat, won by four percentage points.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/politics/10446687.html

Honestly, how can they truly call this accurate when thats all they poll in a state of millions?  It makes no sense to me

Take a statistics class.
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« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2007, 03:11:34 pm »
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Take a statistics class.

Yeah, not exactly all 17-year-olds can just run out and take a statistics class solely so they can understand polling, Zach.
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« Reply #12 on: October 15, 2007, 03:17:14 pm »
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Take a statistics class.

Yeah, not exactly all 17-year-olds can just run out and take a statistics class solely so they can understand polling, Zach.

High schoolers?  Most high schools have a statistics class.
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« Reply #13 on: October 15, 2007, 03:42:49 pm »
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Take a statistics class.

Yeah, not exactly all 17-year-olds can just run out and take a statistics class solely so they can understand polling, Zach.

High schoolers?  Most high schools have a statistics class.

Some can, yes, but it's not exactly like he can run off and start a statistics class immediately.  Tongue

It's much easier to just explain the math behind it than tell him that.
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« Reply #14 on: October 15, 2007, 04:05:35 pm »
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As someone who currently makes a living, in part, editing math textbooks, I can assure you that the concepts of "polling" and "probability" are covered the sixth and seventh grades.

(And as someone who actually writes questions for inclusion in math textbooks, I can assure you that sixth grade kids learning math in California this year will be answering a multi-part question about Chris Shays on one of their book's "chapter tests.")
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« Reply #15 on: October 15, 2007, 04:06:45 pm »
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(And as someone who actually writes questions for inclusion in math textbooks, I can assure you that sixth grade kids learning math in California this year will be answering a multi-part question about Chris Shays on one of their book's "chapter tests.")

Political indoctrination in our schools!
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2007, 04:28:11 pm »
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As someone who currently makes a living, in part, editing math textbooks, I can assure you that the concepts of "polling" and "probability" are covered the sixth and seventh grades.

(And as someone who actually writes questions for inclusion in math textbooks, I can assure you that sixth grade kids learning math in California this year will be answering a multi-part question about Chris Shays on one of their book's "chapter tests.")

I never learned about it (in school), but I went to a private school, but we still had standard Math textbooks.
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« Reply #17 on: October 15, 2007, 07:34:20 pm »
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(And as someone who actually writes questions for inclusion in math textbooks, I can assure you that sixth grade kids learning math in California this year will be answering a multi-part question about Chris Shays on one of their book's "chapter tests.")

Political indoctrination in our schools!

Haha.  It was actually my favorite question that I got to write.  I used a poll that showed Farrell ahead, and had the students show the result as a circle graph.  Then, they had to identify what kind of sampling it was based on the description of who was polled (random).

From there, the actual results were given, and students had to graph that.  They were then asked to give a possible reason why the poll was inaccurate.

If you ask me, real world examples beat the hell out of "Seven students prefer puppies.  Nine prefer kitties.  Show in graph, plz."

I never learned about it (in school), but I went to a private school, but we still had standard Math textbooks.

It's required learning under No Child Left Behind, so a lot of this may be new.
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« Reply #18 on: October 16, 2007, 03:00:12 am »
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High schoolers?  Most high schools have a statistics class.

I can't figure out how you live somewhere large enough high schools offer Statistics, yet small enough B'nai B'rith is unheard of.  Must be a Michigan thing.
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« Reply #19 on: October 16, 2007, 07:07:36 am »
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If you ask me, real world examples beat the hell out of "Seven students prefer puppies.  Nine prefer kitties.  Show in graph, plz."


Agreed. I have enough of their so called "Real World Examples" with trains, cookies, and NaCl solutions.
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« Reply #20 on: October 16, 2007, 08:08:10 am »
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If you ask me, real world examples beat the hell out of "Seven students prefer puppies.  Nine prefer kitties.  Show in graph, plz."


Agreed. I have enough of their so called "Real World Examples" with trains, cookies, and NaCl solutions.

Oh, we're not allowed to use cookies, because they might set a bad nutritional example for the children.

I'm serious.  We're seriously not allowed to use cookies, or ice cream, or cake, or french fries.  Technically, we're not even supposed to use pizza to demonstrate fractions.  But there seems to be some kind of laziness exemption that always passes the censors.

The worst of it, though, is that we are not allowed to use the word "dice," "die," or imagery showing a traditional die with pips to teach probability.  Because that promotes gambling.  Even though the reason kids learn probability is because the state and federal standards demand that children learn how to "avoid unfair games of chance."

We can, however, use the term "number cube," with numbers instead of pips.  Cause kids are retards and will never make the connection between the two.

(And now, back to Bobby J.)
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« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2007, 02:48:39 pm »
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If you ask me, real world examples beat the hell out of "Seven students prefer puppies.  Nine prefer kitties.  Show in graph, plz."


Agreed. I have enough of their so called "Real World Examples" with trains, cookies, and NaCl solutions.

Oh, we're not allowed to use cookies, because they might set a bad nutritional example for the children.

I'm serious.  We're seriously not allowed to use cookies, or ice cream, or cake, or french fries.  Technically, we're not even supposed to use pizza to demonstrate fractions.  But there seems to be some kind of laziness exemption that always passes the censors.

The worst of it, though, is that we are not allowed to use the word "dice," "die," or imagery showing a traditional die with pips to teach probability.  Because that promotes gambling.  Even though the reason kids learn probability is because the state and federal standards demand that children learn how to "avoid unfair games of chance."

We can, however, use the term "number cube," with numbers instead of pips.  Cause kids are retards and will never make the connection between the two.

(And now, back to Bobby J.)

And you're not allowed to use red tape as an example, because then the students may realize that hte people who regulate their schoolbooks are really a waste of taxpayer money.
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« Reply #22 on: October 16, 2007, 03:43:16 pm »
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Math schoolbooks, especially my last two ones are utter failures.
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« Reply #23 on: October 16, 2007, 03:47:02 pm »
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If you ask me, real world examples beat the hell out of "Seven students prefer puppies.  Nine prefer kitties.  Show in graph, plz."


Agreed. I have enough of their so called "Real World Examples" with trains, cookies, and NaCl solutions.

Oh, we're not allowed to use cookies, because they might set a bad nutritional example for the children.

I'm serious.  We're seriously not allowed to use cookies, or ice cream, or cake, or french fries.  Technically, we're not even supposed to use pizza to demonstrate fractions.  But there seems to be some kind of laziness exemption that always passes the censors.

The worst of it, though, is that we are not allowed to use the word "dice," "die," or imagery showing a traditional die with pips to teach probability.  Because that promotes gambling.  Even though the reason kids learn probability is because the state and federal standards demand that children learn how to "avoid unfair games of chance."

We can, however, use the term "number cube," with numbers instead of pips.  Cause kids are retards and will never make the connection between the two.

(And now, back to Bobby J.)

Wow. This idiocy must be fairly recent, because that definitely wasn't the case in my math textbooks. Still idiocy.
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2007, 10:30:44 am »
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The worst of it, though, is that we are not allowed to use the word "dice," "die," or imagery showing a traditional die with pips to teach probability.  Because that promotes gambling.  Even though the reason kids learn probability is because the state and federal standards demand that children learn how to "avoid unfair games of chance."

If the state wanted children to avoid unfair games of chance, they would not have a lottery.
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