PA-06: Safe GOP?

[MarkWarner08]

Chuck Todd and other political experts have pointed to Jim Gerlach's 2006 reelection campaign as the best-run reelection campaign of the cycle. Despite a $3 million onslaught from the DCCC, the landslide wins of Democratic Governor Rendell and Bob Casey and the unpopularity of President Bush, Gerlach prevailed with 50.6% the vote.

Could Mr. 51% survive 2008 without a serious challenge? If Andy Dinniman, who hails from Ches. Co (a Gerlach stronghold) decides not run, expect Gerlach to breeze to victory.

[Speed of Sound]

Oh for sure. Even with Dinniman running, I wouldnt place $5 on a 100 to 1 odds. (or 1 to 100, whichever means I make lots of money ).


If the house didnt fall over in the hurricane, a little shower isnt going to do much. Granted, he will probably still gain 51%.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think he will ever be safe in that Dem trending district, but he is definately favored. 

[Speed of Sound]

I don't think he will ever be safe in that Dem trending district, but he is definately favored. 

Actually, I think he is getting safer with each election, as the Democratic excitement and passion is being sucked out of my next door neighbors in the 6th faster than Ive ever seen every time that 49% pops up in thier column.

[Sam Spade]

If Gerlach doesn't get a serious opponent, it would be hard to beat him in 2008, because I find it hard to believe that PA could be any worse for Republicans in 2008 than it was in 2006.  Other than New Hampshire, and (maybe) Ohio and New York, Pennsylvania was at the real center of the 2006 wave.

[Conan]

Gerlach will be just as vulnerable next year.

[Democratic Hawk]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach will be just as vulnerable next year.

Sure. But who will beat him?

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

[Sam Spade]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

He might have had to in the past, but nowadays I doubt that would happen.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

Has Baron Hill?

[MatthewVA]

I think Gerlach should become more vulnerable in a presidential election year in his Democratic-leaning district.

[Jake]

Well, look at the numbers:

2002 - 51.4 to 48.6
2004 - 51.0 to 49.0
2006 - 50.6 to 49.4

Presidential year doesn't really matter much, what matters is he is able to get out 51% of voters in any given year.

[MatthewVA]

Well, look at the numbers:

2002 - 51.4 to 48.6
2004 - 51.0 to 49.0
2006 - 50.6 to 49.4

Presidential year doesn't really matter much, what matters is he is able to get out 51% of voters in any given year.

Don't think so.  Turnout matters.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Gerlach's numbers have also been steadily decreasing. 

[Jake]

Gerlach's numbers have also been steadily decreasing. 

In line with the perception of the GOP in the country.

Don't think so.  Turnout matters.

Mattered 0.4% worth in 2004 as turnout increased, and somehow he lost another 0.4% as turnout decreased in 2006. That's not supposed to happen for a Republican incumbent.

[MatthewVA]

There are many factors, turnout is a major one.  You can't always use past results to predict future elections. 

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

Who would have thought that Gerlach would survive and Anne Northup would be defeated based on the 2004 results?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gerlach's numbers have also been steadily decreasing. 

Which is what you should expect: 2002 was a terrific year for Republicans, 2004 was a decent year, 2006 was a terrible year.

[MarkWarner08]

Gerlach is one of the better Republicans

Dave

Is Gerlach really a moderate, or does he just vote the district?

 He votes with the Democrats on environmental and social issues when the margin on the bill is lopsided or when his vote doesn't matter. Has he ever cast the deciding vote on an important bill against the wishes of the leadership?

Has Baron Hill?

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/congress/107/house/2/votes/264/

Baron Hill cast the deciding vote in favor of the renewal of the Andean Trade Preference Act, which was opposed by the Democratic leadership and Big Labor.

Jim Gerlach, on the other hand, has not cast a deciding vote on an important issue against the leadership's position. When Tom DeLay needed Jim Gerlach's vote to pass the Medicare bill and CAFTA, two of the most substantive pieces of legislation passed by the 108th and the 109th Congress, Jim Gerlach voted yes.

The bottom line: Baron Hill stood up to his party's leadership, while Jim Gerlach acquiesced to his party's leadership.

[Sam Spade]

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

That's just simply wrong.  KY-03 is a historically Democratic area, PA-06 is a historically Republican area.  Not to mention party registration probably matches that analysis.  Your analysis would be more correct if you compared, say KY-03 with NM-01, for example.

[MarkWarner08]

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

That's just simply wrong.  KY-03 is a historically Democratic area, PA-06 is a historically Republican area.  Not to mention party registration probably matches that analysis.  Your analysis would be more correct if you compared, say KY-03 with NM-01, for example.

Furthermore, PA-06 is really an amalgamation of non-connected communities with divergent political beliefs. It includes the Main Line, home to country club Republicans and pro-choice suburban women, rural areas with blue-collar Democrats, exurbs teeming with church-going Republicans and minority-majority precincts in Mont. Co. It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

[Brittain33]

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

That's just simply wrong.  KY-03 is a historically Democratic area, PA-06 is a historically Republican area.  Not to mention party registration probably matches that analysis.  Your analysis would be more correct if you compared, say KY-03 with NM-01, for example.

Perhaps CT-5 is a better analogue for PA-6. A mix of small cities and Republican suburbs and rural areas that is fairly evenly divided for President, leans Republican in state and local races. Here are some maps that don't show congressional district lines:

http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/4113/779/1600/273116/state%20senate2006.png
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/4113/779/1600/147391/houseofreps2006png.png

Map of the district:

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4113/779/1600/2006%205thCDpng.png

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

No. It's a cross-section of something for sure, but isn't representative of Pennsylvania much; isn't working class enough.

[Sam Spade]

It's kind of a cross-section of Pennsylvania itself.

No. It's a cross-section of something for sure, but isn't representative of Pennsylvania much; isn't working class enough.

Yep.  That's the reason why I should have made the comment earlier that the vote for CAFTA would probably be supported in the CD (if they understand what CAFTA was) - free trade support tends to be strongest in upper-income suburban areas.

[Mr.Phips]

Take KY-3 and PA-6, which have similar partisan makeups.

That's just simply wrong.  KY-03 is a historically Democratic area, PA-06 is a historically Republican area.  Not to mention party registration probably matches that analysis.  Your analysis would be more correct if you compared, say KY-03 with NM-01, for example.

KY-03 is way more Democratic at its roots than NM-01 is.  There are almost no Republican elected officials in KY-03 and 66% of voters are Democrats.