VA-GOP opts for convention; Davis likely to drop out

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-10-13-0212.html

[Verily]

Unsurprising. He probably would have dropped out eventually anyway. It's rather sad that one former Governor running against another is really a sacrificial lamb against a political juggernaut.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This all doesn't matter.  Warner is going to demolish any GOP opponent.  The one sad thing is now Davis will be reelected in the House, denying us the opportunity to pick up a House seat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

This all doesn't matter.  Warner is going to demolish any GOP opponent.  The one sad thing is now Davis will be reelected in the House, denying us the opportunity to pick up a House seat.

The DCCC may still target the seat and the Democratic Presidential nominee will almost certainly carry it.  However, Davis is obviously favoured to win re-election. 

[Frodo]

So it's Gilmore vs. Warner.  I call this race 55 to 45 percent, in favor of Mark Warner. 

[MatthewVA]

59/41 Warner.

[Padfoot]

This all doesn't matter.  Warner is going to demolish any GOP opponent.  The one sad thing is now Davis will be reelected in the House, denying us the opportunity to pick up a House seat.

The DCCC may still target the seat and the Democratic Presidential nominee will almost certainly target it.  However, Davis is obviously favoured to win re-election. 

I agree.  I think Virginia is going to be a big battleground in 2008 and if the Democrats campaign strongly there all the way up and down the ticket then Davis may very well lose his House seat anyways.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why would Davis be in any danger next year? He won easily enough in 2006.

[WalterMitty]

i never thought id see the day when a republican for an open seat in virginia would be a sacrificial  lamb.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why would Davis be in any danger next year? He won easily enough in 2006.

He won with the lowest percentage of his career since he defeated Leslie Byrne in 1994, and his opponent only had 1/10th of the cash he had. If Leslie Byrne or Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, runs, they will be fully funded, and the Democratic Presidential nominee will more than likely carry the district in 2008 (Kerry lost it by less than one percent). All this in an environment that's not looking like it will be much, if any, better for the Republicans than 2006 was.

It will also be a blow to his image if his wife loses her State Senate seat this year, which is looking more and more likely. He's been campaigning for her constantly, and she's recently dropped $750,000 in last-minute TV ads -- this for a State Senate district that will probably have a turnout of under 50,000 voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He won with the lowest percentage of his career since he defeated Leslie Byrne in 1994,

He won by 11pts. Smaller than the majorities he's been used to in the decade or so between those elections, but not even close.

That his margin was the lowest since his first win should hardly be a surprise when you consider the electoral climate of 2006.

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At best the above is only slightly relevant.

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The electoral environment would have to be significantly worse than 2006 for Davis to lose (unless he gets mired in scandal).

If you can't be objective (and if you live in the general area I can understand why you might not be), at least try to be realistic.

[MatthewVA]

is definitely a sign of vulnerability.  His district gets more Democratic by the day so the DCCC would be stupid not to play in that district whether he runs or not.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

is definitely a sign of vulnerability.

1. Not so. Especially not in an election that saw a huge swing to the other party.

2. I would hardly call an incumbent of twelve years a "long term incumbent"... long term is decades, surely.

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Ah. Falling back on the tRenDINg dEMoCArTT thesis...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.

Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.

Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.

No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.

Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.

Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.

No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.

At what point did I deny that the DC suburbs have been swinging towards the Democratic Party? That they have been is clearly true.

It is, however, also true that 11pts is not close and is, in fact, not even marginal. Will the Democrats have a good shot when Davis retires? Of course. Will they before then? Despite all the bluster, no.

[Adlai Stevenson]

So it's Gilmore vs. Warner.  I call this race 55 to 45 percent, in favor of Mark Warner. 

I agree with that.  Warner's ceiling so far in polls has been around the mid-fifties percentage wise.  He will obviously win and may well win 59%-40% or something similar, but it is not going to be a 2-1 for blowout or even over 60%.  Virginia is still a nominally Republican state and any respectable GOP nominee running for the Senate in a Presidential year will get over 40% of the vote.  I imagine that Warner will continually lead by big margins until the final weeks of the campaign when Republicans start coming home.  It will probably be a similar situation to Harris vs. Nelson race in Florida in 2006. 

[MarkWarner08]

Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.

Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.

Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.

No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.

At what point did I deny that the DC suburbs have been swinging towards the Democratic Party? That they have been is clearly true.

It is, however, also true that 11pts is not close and is, in fact, not even marginal. Will the Democrats have a good shot when Davis retires? Of course. Will they before then? Despite all the bluster, no.

Exactly. Tom Davis is a well-liked incumbent who plays to his district's suburban base on livability issues. Defeating him would be a task as difficult as upsetting Chet Edwards or Jim Matheson, two other examples of astute Congressman who have bucked their district's political dynamics.

The notion that the all-mighty DCCC will make a play in this district is absurd.  Chris Van Hollen and co have to defend at least 10 vulnerable freshman and they have nine GOP open seats and 15 Republican incumbents who are higher on their target list than Tom Davis.


Republican incumbents who are more vulnerable than Davis:
Robin Hayes
Dave Reichert
Randy Kuhl
Jim Walsh
Sam Graves
Shelley Moore Capito
Joe Knollenberg
Tim Walberg
Jon Porter
John Doolittle
Chris Shays
Mark Kirk
Mike Ferguson
Phil English
Don Young


In Davis’ vulnerability range:
Michelle Bachmann
Thelma Drake
Jim Saxton
Tom Reynolds
Ric Keller
Steve Chabot
Thad McCotter
C.W. Young
Tim Murphy
Barbara Cubin
Jean Schmidt
Marilyn Musgrave
Tim Murphy
Charlie Dent
Jim Gerlach

[Smash255]

Kerry won 45.5% statewide in 2004, and won 49.2% in the 11th district, performing 3.7% better.

Kaine won 51.7% statewide in 2005, and won 55.7% in the 11th, performing 4.0% better.

Webb won 49.6% statewide in 2006, and won 54.7% in the 11th, performing 5.1% better.

No, there's absolutely no indication that the 11th is trending Democratic.

At what point did I deny that the DC suburbs have been swinging towards the Democratic Party? That they have been is clearly true.

It is, however, also true that 11pts is not close and is, in fact, not even marginal. Will the Democrats have a good shot when Davis retires? Of course. Will they before then? Despite all the bluster, no.

davis had a HUGE $$ advantage.  He outspent Hirsch by 9-1 in 06.  The higher turnout that comes in a Pres election, the continued Democratic trend of the district as well as a $$ race thats even remotely close could leave Davis in a whole ton of trouble.

[MatthewVA]

VA-11 was not a DCCC target and really wasn't on the national radar at all.  His opponent was heavily outspent and still Davis only won by 11.   The DCCC has zero hope of expanding the Democratic majority if they don't play in districts like VA-11.

Btw, 6 terms is definitely a long-term incumbent.

[WalterMitty]

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

[MarkWarner08]

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

VA-09 and VA-11 are both likely to flip parties once the seats are vacated.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

Your argument is irrefutable. I yield.

[MatthewVA]

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

Different situation.

[WalterMitty]

OMGZ.

va-09 is trending gop. 

watch out boucher!

Your argument is irrefutable. I yield.

all of this trending stuff is stupid.

use 'trended'...past tense. 

i guess you werent around in 2004 when shira was posting everyday how kerry was going to win florida  comfortably because it was trending democrat.  just look at 1988-2000!

[MatthewVA]

If there weren't some value to Northern Virginia trends, we'd have a Governor Kilgore and reelected Senator Allen.  Looking at trends can be overdone, but it's not pointless or stupid.