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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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| |-+  2013 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Tender Branson)
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Author Topic: MS Polls  (Read 6824 times)
Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« on: October 15, 2007, 02:45:47 am »
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Are they planning on doing any before the election?  Has anybody heard rumors?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2007, 07:37:32 am »

I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ... Tongue
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2007, 03:16:26 pm »
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I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ... Tongue

Well, I know who I'm calling as the winner, but w/o even one poll, it's hard to make a percentage.
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2007, 04:20:41 pm »
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I haven´t seen any poll from MS either. Even in 2004 and 2006 there were hardly any polls from that state ... Tongue

Well, I know who I'm calling as the winner, but w/o even one poll, it's hard to make a percentage.

Well, you'll just have to start at the Bush/Kerry numbers, and adjust based on changes in the perceived African American turnout (I'd guess that moves the needle towards Barbour) and Eaves' conservatism (which may be a plus OR a negative, depending on how you look at things).

I'm expecting a very similar result to Bush/Kerry.
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Harry
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2007, 06:20:41 pm »
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Barbour 53, Eaves 47 would be my estimate.

The Clarion-Ledger did a Musgrove/Barbour poll near the last week of the '03 election, so we may get one in a couple weeks.
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2007, 07:26:52 pm »
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I'd expect a current poll to read something like...
Barbour: Low fifties
Eaves: Low thirties
Undecided: Mid teens
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2007, 10:55:35 pm »
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I'd expect a current poll to read something like...
Barbour: Low fifties
Eaves: Low thirties
Undecided: Mid teens

You're misunderestimating a few things:

--Kerry was a terrible candidate for Mississippi.  Eaves will do much better among whites in Mississippi than Kerry did.
--There is a black candidate, Gary Anderson, running for Insurance Commissioner who has a legit chance of winning.  He would be the first African-American to ever hold statewide office in Mississippi.  He's done a great job campaigning and ought to keep black turnout high, and could end up having some (small) coattails on the rest of the ticket.
--Barbour promised the fundies he'd never let casinos move onto land and then he did.  They have not forgiven him for that and many are buying into Eaves's pro-Jesus pro-family stances.  Eaves is putting together a bizarre coalition of liberals, blacks, and fundamentalist Christians that may not win, but will at least surprise some people across the country.
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2007, 02:56:46 am »
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Barbour 58%
Eaves 42%

Assuming a straight two-way race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2007, 08:49:15 am »

My prediction (slightly different than on my 2007 prediction page):

Barbour: 56-58%
Eaves: 42-44%
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2007, 05:20:25 pm »
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I think its gonna be Barbour by 54%-45%. 
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Gabu
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2007, 06:09:59 pm »
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I've currently got it at Barbour >50% on my prediction map, and that's as specific as I'm going to get. Tongue
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2007, 08:50:28 pm »
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I've currently got it at Barbour >50% on my prediction map, and that's as specific as I'm going to get. Tongue
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2007, 01:23:20 pm »
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Eaves 52, Barbour 48
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2007, 08:29:32 am »
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Hoping that Jake's right... but I predict Barbour 54.9%.
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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