The Independent vote.

[George W. Bush]

This is how the Independents in each state voted. Montana was 50-50

[Redefeatbush04]

Nebraskas Independents went for kerry? Hmm.....

[George W. Bush]

yea i know, Its strange.

[Joe Republic]

I notice that two of the important swing states (OH and FL) that went for Bush had more independent votes for Kerry.

I take it therefore that Republican voter registration/turnout was higher than Democratic equivalents AND the majority of independent voters combined in those states?  I don't know the numbers exactly and I'm too lazy right now to find out myself.

Oh, by the way, good work!

[Sheliak5]

Were it not for Nebraska and to a lesser extent Nevada, the map would make perfect sense.

Very interesting.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

EDIT: Corrected first map to reflect inversion of Wyoming numbers.

[A18]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

"Extremist" is another term for "Republican".

[Democratic Hawk]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

The fact that a liberal like Kerry won the support of most moderates nationally and on a state-by-state basis, this should bode well for us Democrats in the event of selecting a bona fide moderate Democratic candidate (i.e. one who the GOP can't stigmatise as a liberal) in 2008

Dave

[KEmperor]

The so called "moderates" are self-described.  I find that suspect.  How many people go around calling themselves extremists?

[angus]

what is a moderate?  and what is an independent?  I assume the post by phillip was a joke, but I'm curious.  How are they defined here?  However they're defined, it seems as though Kerry did better among both groups.  Given the three-million plus vote difference, that together with the fact that Kerry seems to have won most of the swing vote, then I'd say that just about makes Rove a maestro.  You boys need to find a brain like his.  level the playing field a bit.  keep things interesting.

[George W. Bush]

Very interesting! Your data is a bit inaccurate, though, according to CNN's site - mostly tiny, insignificant map-shading errors. I corrected it, shaded it, and also did a map for the moderates:

Independents


Moderates


Montana was tied at >40% for the first map.

Also, here is a map of the independent vs. moderate vote:




In red-marked states, Kerry did better among independents than he did among moderates. Nevada was a tie.

You are right about Nevada, Kerry won that in the Independent vote, But not Wyoming.

[kwab]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

"Extremist" is another term for "Republican".

Anyways....

[So the Heroes Fall]

The so called "moderates" are self-described.  I find that suspect.  How many people go around calling themselves extremists?

*raises hand*

[YRABNNRM]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

That's perhaps the most stupid thing you have said.

[Hitchabrut]

Democrats consider Bill Clinton a moderate and Joe Lieberman a conservative. Therefore, Democrats believe that if they aren't socialist, then they must be moderate.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Democrats consider Bill Clinton a moderate and Joe Lieberman a conservative. Therefore, Democrats believe that if they aren't socialist, then they must be moderate.

Lieberman isn't a conservative, just a left-leaning populist. Clinton is, too, for that matter.

[Platypus]

If you had the Australian system of compulsory preferential voting, Gore would've won in 2000 and presuming for some reason he didn't, Kerry would have won in 2004 :p

[opebo]

"Moderate" is another term for "Democrat." People don't seem to understand this.

Certainly it is true that a majority of self-described moderates will vote Democrat - the Democrat Party is much more moderate than the Republican.  It is a moderate center-right party as opposed to the extreme right Republicans.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Opebo, by U.S. standards, people consider "moderate" to be inbetween the two political parties, no matter how much you'd like to pretend people see the Democrats as center-right.

I do not think moderates are per se Democrats. I just feel that Bush brought out the Republicans and managed to make "liberal" into a dirty word. This resulted in an increase in the number of self-indentified conservatives and an increase in the number of center-left Democrats identifying themselves as moderates instead of liberals.

I do not have numbers to support this; it is rather just a suspicion.

[Colin]

If you had the Australian system of compulsory preferential voting, Gore would've won in 2000 and presuming for some reason he didn't, Kerry would have won in 2004 :p

But your also forgetting that under a IRV system more people would vote for third parties and might have their vote go towards a person who has views that are very different from theirs.

[Platypus]

Their preferences would still have flowed to kerry and Bush or Gore and Bush in these last two elections. What would be really interesting is 1992, with compulsory preferential voting.