I love starting this one. I really think Washington will surprise everyone this year. The GOP GOTV is amazing this time around and the governors race is starting to heat up. After 20 years of democratic dominance, the people are itching for change.
The poll average in WA is about Kerry +5% to +10% (depending on which polls you care to use and/or how far back you want to go). Of course, the polls aren't perfect and it's still only August 1st... but my point is, WA isn't really terribly close. Every one of the factors you mention would have to come up
huge in order for Bush to take WA or even make it close. Possible? Sure, it's not like Kerry's up by 15% there. Likely? No.
