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| | |-+  KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam
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Author Topic: KY: Insider Advantage: Beshear Loses Some Steam  (Read 5086 times)
Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« on: September 30, 2007, 11:40:46 pm »
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New Poll: Kentucky Governor by Insider Advantage on 2007-09-25

Summary: D: 45%, R: 35%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Verily
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« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2007, 07:33:03 pm »
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Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2007, 03:18:06 pm »
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Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.
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Verily
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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2007, 03:27:04 pm »
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Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2007, 04:26:37 pm »
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Actually, he's gaining steam in this poll.

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=59733.0

That's July 11th; this is October 1st.

Yes, and that was the last Insider Advantage poll before this one. It had Beshear 3 points ahead; he is now 10 points ahead in their polls. Beshear has gained seven points in this poll.

OK, but there have been a lot of polls in between.  Overall, this poll had him losing steam.
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2007, 07:41:47 pm »
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Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.
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« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2007, 09:20:28 pm »
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Insider Advantage polls have ALWAYS shown Beshear up by less than all other polls, so this is another outlier from a crappy poll, and as Verily has pointed out, is actually a gain for him.

My guess is IA doesn't push leaners at all. Beshear is picking up in their poll because leaners are now moving toward him with the election coming closer.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2007, 09:21:53 pm »
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Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.
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« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2007, 09:41:44 pm »
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Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.
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Assemblyman & Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2007, 12:08:34 am »
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Verily's point is, you can't just look at it that way.  Look at it like this:

5/11 - Brown Analysis - D +6
5/12 - Smith Polling - D +9
5/13 - Jones Research - D +20
...
5/25 - Brown Analysis - R +8
5/26 - Smith Polling - R +9
5/27 - Jones Research - D +8

How are you going to look at it, overall - a Democratic surge, or a Republican one?  A Republican one, even though between the last two polls, it's a Democratic one.  This is generally useful in polls from crappy firms (which Insider Advantage pretty much is).

Extreme example, but I'm sure that you get the idea.

I get the idea, but you're talking about a difference in weeks at most.  We're talking 3 months here.

The point still stands...you need to also look at adjacent polls, which tell a markedly different story.

But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2007, 12:27:24 am »
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I'd argue you can't necessarily look at a trend anyway, especially when other polls are showing a much different result than this one.
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2007, 01:38:27 am »
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But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2007, 02:07:08 am »
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But you can't look at a trend when the polls are over 3 months apart.

His point is that you can't directly compare the results of two polls done by two polling organizations if one of them has a history of being slanted towards one side or the other compared to every other poll.  Was that one poll showing Casey only up 4 very near the November 2006 election an example of Casey "losing steam"?

Yes, exactly what I meant - and also when one poll is frequently slanted toward sucking.
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