NJ State Senate 02: Whelan/McCullough a dead heat
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  NJ State Senate 02: Whelan/McCullough a dead heat
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Author Topic: NJ State Senate 02: Whelan/McCullough a dead heat  (Read 2315 times)
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« on: October 17, 2007, 05:53:55 PM »

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My take: It's a GOP poll, so McCullough is still fighting for his life and behind by single digits.  Still, even given the GOP bias, this looks a lot closer than you'd expect.  I still expect Whelan to win this one.

On the Assembly side, this confirms what I had thought—Amodeo is a exceptionally strong candidate.  I'd be surprised if he didn't take one of the two slots (defending a must-defend seat for Assembly Republicans), and the simple mechanics of an Assembly gives the GOP a better-than-average shot at picking up Whelan's Assembly seat.

Overall, I expect the GOP to lose ground in the Senate, but this poll shows some darn good news for the Assembly GOP—they may actually have a chance to gain one or two seats:

  • In District 1, Republicans have a strong chance to pick up the open Van Drew Assembly seat, and possibly knock off coattail-rider Nelson Albano, even as they seem likely to lose the State Senate seat there.
  • In District 2, Amodeo looks to be in strong shape to defend the retiring Blee (R) seat.  The open Whelan (D) seat looks to be a "tossup."
  • In District 7, Republicans have a terrific set of candidates, but few resources to pick it up.  Still, with Diane Allen on the ballot turning out her voters, it remains an outside shot for an upset.
  • In District 8, a heavily Republican Burlco district, Bodine's party switch and Senate bid almost guarantees the GOP a pick-up.  It's a "paper victory," but with the GOP at a 50-30 disadvantage in the Assembly, they can use all the paper victories they can get.
  • In District 12, Republicans have to defend an open seat, while Democrats merely have to defend an incumbent.  That's tough for the GOP, but its the type of district that tends to prefer a generic Republican over a generic Democrat.  My money's on this district continuing to be split 1-1 going into the new session, but Democrats could pick this up if Karcher rolls to victory.
  • In District 14, it's been Republican newcomer Adam Bushman attracting lots of headlines, endorsements (not just the Home News Tribune, but trade unions too), and attention.  Tom Goodwin (R) looks like a strong candidate, if only by virtue of his hometown.  Incumbent Linda Greenstein (D) doesn't look exceptionally vulnerable, but her running mate doesn't look like he'll be in the State House much in 2008 without a visitor's pass.  I'd be surprised if Republicans couldn't defend Baroni's open seat here—this district, perhaps more than most others, is incredibly thoughtful when it comes to picking candidates based on experience, issues, and hard work.
  • In District 39, you've got a set of longtime GOP legislators targeted by the Bergen Dems in a lean-GOP district.  I think you've got to give this one to the GOP based on incumbency and GOP advantage.  Still, never rule out the Bergen County Dems.

At this point, I think it's D+2 in the Senate; R+1 in the Assembly.
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2007, 08:02:56 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2007, 10:47:26 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.
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MAS117
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2007, 06:03:24 PM »

I agree with your analysis on the D-2 Senate race. It is very very close but I expect both Whelan in 2 and Van Drew in 1 to come out on top.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2007, 07:09:25 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?
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Conan
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2007, 07:38:51 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?
You should check out their cash on hands. These are big bucks. I'll find the pdf of their finances.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2007, 09:35:52 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?

Because politics in New Jersey, more so than in California, is all about personal enrichment.  State and county contracts, all that good stuff.  It's legalized bribery, really, with terrible campaign finance laws.

The record was set in 2005, when a combined $4.2 million was spent in the Atlantic City based Assembly district to defeat incumbent Republicans Kirk Conover and Francis Blee.  Blee won, but Whelan (now running for Senate) knocked off Conover.

The same strategy plays itself out every year—Camden County Democrats pick one or two seats to play in, flood the district with obscene amounts of cash (often times taking out loans), win seats, and rake in cash hand over fist as contracts flood to Democrat-friendly companies, law firms, insurance companies, and financial institutions.
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2007, 09:37:07 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?

Part of it's media market; NJ is the most expensive state to campaign in because of how pricey both Philly and NYC's media markets are. Part of it is available money; NJ's one of the richest states in the country. Part of it I can't explain.
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MAS117
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2007, 10:19:44 PM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?

Because politics in New Jersey, more so than in California, is all about personal enrichment.  State and county contracts, all that good stuff.  It's legalized bribery, really, with terrible campaign finance laws.

The record was set in 2005, when a combined $4.2 million was spent in the Atlantic City based Assembly district to defeat incumbent Republicans Kirk Conover and Francis Blee.  Blee won, but Whelan (now running for Senate) knocked off Conover.

The same strategy plays itself out every year—Camden County Democrats pick one or two seats to play in, flood the district with obscene amounts of cash (often times taking out loans), win seats, and rake in cash hand over fist as contracts flood to Democrat-friendly companies, law firms, insurance companies, and financial institutions.

Was Conover and Blee more expensive then Fred and Geist?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2007, 12:10:35 AM »

This is the first time I've ever seen a poll for a state legislative race.

More money will probably be spent on this race than 95% of the US House races in the country.  Two to four million per candidate.

For a State Assembly race? Why? That's more than what's spent on competitive State Senate races in California, which is the world's seventh largest economy. What's wrong with the Garden State?

Because politics in New Jersey, more so than in California, is all about personal enrichment.  State and county contracts, all that good stuff.  It's legalized bribery, really, with terrible campaign finance laws.

The record was set in 2005, when a combined $4.2 million was spent in the Atlantic City based Assembly district to defeat incumbent Republicans Kirk Conover and Francis Blee.  Blee won, but Whelan (now running for Senate) knocked off Conover.

The same strategy plays itself out every year—Camden County Democrats pick one or two seats to play in, flood the district with obscene amounts of cash (often times taking out loans), win seats, and rake in cash hand over fist as contracts flood to Democrat-friendly companies, law firms, insurance companies, and financial institutions.

Was Conover and Blee more expensive then Fred and Geist?

No.  Conover/Blee was the most expensive State Assembly race ever.

The most expensive State Senate race is still Geist/Madden.  George Geist spent $1.3 million to try and hold his seat; Fred Madden dropped $4.4 million to take it from him by a 63 vote margin.  That works out to $5.7 million for one seat.  (Note to out-of-staters: neither self funded.)
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2007, 05:26:39 AM »

Poll Finds Almost Half of New Jersey Adults Want to Move Out of State

"New Jersey already is suffering from an image problem and bears the brunt of jokes because of its corruption and pollution problems. But 58 percent of those residents polled said the heavy financial burden of just living in the state is no laughing matter, and that's why they want to leave."

Poll: Many in state ready to move out

"In the Monmouth/Gannett poll, nearly 60 percent of those who said they wanted to leave New Jersey cited financial issues: property taxes, high cost-of-living, state taxes or housing costs."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2007, 08:53:49 AM »

"Poll: New Jersey residents hate state, selves" is another "Dog bites man."
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