My analysis of the Colbert situation

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

From my blog (http://inkslwc.wordpress.com/2007/10/18/stephen-colbert-presidential-candidate/):

Well, I’m SURE by now you all have heard - Stephen Colbert wants to run for President, at least in South Carolina, his home state.  So, let’s analyze the possibilities with this:

Colbert runs in South Carolina - not largely affecting the Republicans, probably hurting McCain and Paul the most, due to their popularity with younger college students (mainly McCain).  In the Democratic primary, however, things could get a little spicier - he could take a large amount away from Obama, as well as Clinton.  From here we have 2 options:

He doesn’t win - story ends here.
He wins the SC Dem. primary.  From here - 2 more options:
  He quits.
  He continues, giving us 2 more options:
    He wins no to only a couple more states - and the nomination process goes  along basically normally.
    He wins quite a few states - placing him unofficially as winning the DNC - 2 more options:
      The delegates from the states don’t cast their votes for Colbert, so essentially the primaries were completely pointless, and whichever candidate has the most delegates at the convention wins.
      He pulls off the feat of getting the DNC nomination - 2 more options:
        He flat-out loses the election.
        He wins the election - giving us 2 options:
          The electors decide to follow the wishes of the voters - Colbert is our next President.
          The electors see that voting for a person who has never held political office would be a terrible idea.  Thus, they do what they were put in power to originally do, trump the stupid decision of voters, giving us our 2 final options:
            The Democratic electors fight it out between themselves - for each of their candidates, splitting the party, giving the win to the Republicans.
            The Democrats unite to chose a candidate - whoever has the most power convinces the others to vote with them in order to salvage the party and not split the votes which would give the Reps. a win.

Now - what do I think is most likely - he’ll probably win SC and quit there.  But still, the fact that America would vote for somebody who has no experience is scary (and I’ve already heard support for him).

If he came back in a few years  after being Governor, good  for him - but you can’t jump into the seat of President when you have no experience.

[Gabu]

...

Do you honestly not understand that Colbert is not running to win the presidency?  I don't think you try to get on both parties' ballots if you're a serious candidate.

Also, your analysis is kind of pointless.  You're basically saying "if he wins then he wins and if he loses then he loses."  No duh.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My analysis of the Colbert situation: IT'S A JOKE.

Because, you know, he's a comedian and makes the funnies.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

My analysis of the Colbert situation: IT'S A JOKE.

Because, you know, he's a comedian and makes the funnies.

I agree with Mr. Moderate. If he was really serious about running for the President of the God Damn United States, he wouldn't run in both primaries. Which could be a possiblity.

I would laugh if Colbert managed to win South Carolina, or any primary for that matter. It would be like that Robin Williams film Man of the Year except it would be funnier.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

...

Do you honestly not understand that Colbert is not running to win the presidency?  I don't think you try to get on both parties' ballots if you're a serious candidate.

Also, your analysis is kind of pointless.  You're basically saying "if he wins then he wins and if he loses then he loses."  No duh.

Clearly, he knows that he is as popular as California Governor Earl Warren in the 1946 election, and is trying to win both nominations at the same time.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

My analysis of the Colbert situation: IT'S A JOKE.

Because, you know, he's a comedian and makes the funnies.

I agree with Mr. Moderate. If he was really serious about running for the President of the God Damn United States, he wouldn't run in both primaries. Which could be a possiblity.

I would laugh if Colbert managed to win South Carolina, or any primary for that matter. It would be like that Robin Williams film Man of the Year except it would be funnier.

I think he'll stop after SC - but if he happens to actually win, he could get cocky - and  excited.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

He won't actually appear on the ballot anywhere.  He can't without running afoul of all sorts of FCC rules.

[Gabu]

I think he'll stop after SC - but if he happens to actually win, he could get cocky - and  excited.

Why are you so bound and determined to turn this into a serious presidential bid that merits critical analysis?

"hurrrr he is inexperienced and that makes him a bad politician hurrr he should go run for a governor and then run for president"

Sheesh.  He's running for kicks because he thought it would be funny for someone to run for both nominations at the same time.  That's it.  South Carolina happens to be the state he was raised in, so it made an obvious choice.  He's a comedian with a TV show and this will probably help ratings.

[Bacon King]

Inks, you take things waaaay too seriously.

[motomonkey]

This is an unoriginal lame gag to increase ratings, fame and sell books.  Personal gain at the expense of the democratic process.

Maybe some of you are old enough to remember many other comedians "running for president" to draw attention to themselves and attack policy and candidates.

Anybody remember comedian Pat Paulson?  Did comedy with the Smothers Brothers and Hippy Dippy Weatherman. 

It is a joke.  Not a very good one.

[Hash]

Coluche could've won over 15% and maybe gotten into the second round in 1981 in France. The Rhino Party won 1% federally in the 1980s and came second in Laurier (Montreal) in front of the PCs and NDP.

[MODU]

I think we can all see that this is a joke.  However, I have a question for you.  If Colbert does make it onto the ballot, would he have to have all of the candidates on his TV show at some point before the primary? 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Colbert is running as a joke. He probably won't even appear on the ballot. Even if he does, his affect on the election will probably be minimal as I really don't think anyone will take him seriously enough to vote for him.

[StateBoiler]

You're undestimating the will of twentysomethings and overestimating their opinions of the candidates in the race currently.

[Erc]

As for the FCC rules thing that everyone keeps bringing up...

Doesn't that only apply to network TV?  His show is on Comedy Central, on cable...does the 'equal time for candidates' even still apply on cable networks?

[Joe Republic]

You're undestimating the will of twentysomethings and overestimating their opinions of the candidates in the race currently.

You're damn right.  If I lived in South Carolina, I'd most definitely vote for him over the current crop of sanctimonious asses.

[Smash255]

As for the FCC rules thing that everyone keeps bringing up...

Doesn't that only apply to network TV?  His show is on Comedy Central, on cable...does the 'equal time for candidates' even still apply on cable networks?

Yes, which is why the Law & Order episodes featuring Thompson can't appear on NBC, but can appear on TNT

[Lief 🗽]

So he can run and keep his show? Nice.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm pretty sure he's serious about getting on the ballots, just not sure about the names on the ballots he wants

"Hillary Clobama" and
"Mitt Giuliani"

[Mr. Morden]

Even though being on cable means that the "equal time" rules don't apply, there's still the issue of whether Comedy Central allowing him to use his show to promote his candidacy could be considered an illegal corporate contribution:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1007/6450.html

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[SPC]

I have a feeling that Colbert will have a decent showing (i.e. 3-5%) in the Democratic primary. Then again, I also thought that Allen, Richardson, and Ogonowski would win their respective elections.

[M]

Now - what do I think is most likely - he’ll probably win SC.

Really? You think that is most likely?

[MODU]

As for the FCC rules thing that everyone keeps bringing up...

Doesn't that only apply to network TV?  His show is on Comedy Central, on cable...does the 'equal time for candidates' even still apply on cable networks?

I'm not sure, which is why I asked the question.