Louisiana Gubernatorial Primary - 20 October 2007

[Tender Branson]

FRANKLINTON, La., Oct. 17 — An Oxford-educated son of immigrants from India is virtually certain to become the leading candidate for Louisiana’s next governor in Saturday’s primary election. It would be an unlikely choice for a state that usually picks its leaders from deep in the rural hinterlands and has not had a nonwhite chief executive since Reconstruction.



But peculiar circumstances have combined to make Representative Bobby Jindal, a conservative two-term Republican, the overwhelming favorite. Analysts predict Mr. Jindal, 36, could get more than 50 percent of the vote in the open primary, thus avoiding a November runoff and becoming the nation’s first Indian-American governor. If he fails to win a majority, he would face the next-highest vote getter in the runoff.

Louisiana Democrats are demoralized, caught between the perception of post-hurricane incompetence surrounding their standard bearer, Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco, who is not running for re-election, and corruption allegations against senior elected officials like William J. Jefferson, the congressman from New Orleans.

Leading Democrats begged off the governor’s race, and Mr. Jindal’s opponents are from the second tier, trailing so badly in polls that Mr. Jindal has ignored most of the scheduled debates among candidates, leaving the challengers to take grumbling verbal shots at his empty chair.

The prize is not necessarily an enviable one: Louisiana is the nation’s poorest state, measured by per capita income; one of its unhealthiest; the worst in infant mortality; and the least educated. It is last in attracting new college-educated workers. Tens of thousands of people remain displaced by Hurricane Katrina, the police department in New Orleans still operates largely out of trailers, and neighborhoods are still trying to rebuild.

story continues ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/19/us/19louisiana.html

...

Any Predictions ?

[bgwah]

I'm just excited for an election!

I haven't been following the race much at all, though I would guess Jindal gets 45-49% in the primary and around 55-60% in the general. I'm just blindly guessing, so don't make fun of me when I'm wrong.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

Jindal: 56%

No other candidate will get more than 20% ...

[sethm0]

Jindal 55%
Boasso 22%
Campbell 11%
Georges 9%
Others 2%

 Or thereabouts.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Jindal wins it, becomes the new face of the GOP and is elected President in 2016. 

[Lief 🗽]

Jindal wins it, becomes the new face of the GOP and is elected President in 2016. 

No. Way too conservative.

[SPC]

My optimistic prediction:
Jindal 49%
Lee Horne 8%
Campbell 7.99%
Boasso 7.99%
Georges 7.99%
8 Others <2% each

My realistic prediction:
Jindal 55%
Boasso 25%
Georges 15%
10 Others <1% each

[HardRCafé]

The prize is not necessarily an enviable one: Louisiana is the nation’s poorest state, measured by per capita income; one of its unhealthiest; the worst in infant mortality; and the least educated. It is last in attracting new college-educated workers. Tens of thousands of people remain displaced by Hurricane Katrina, the police department in New Orleans still operates largely out of trailers, and neighborhoods are still trying to rebuild.

I love how they slip that in there.

[7,052,770]

The prize is not necessarily an enviable one: Louisiana is the nation’s poorest state, measured by per capita income; one of its unhealthiest; the worst in infant mortality; and the least educated. It is last in attracting new college-educated workers. Tens of thousands of people remain displaced by Hurricane Katrina, the police department in New Orleans still operates largely out of trailers, and neighborhoods are still trying to rebuild.

I love how they slip that in there.

Yeah, especially since they describe what Mississippi has become after 4 years under Barbour...

[HardRCafé]

A state overwhelmingly ready to re-elect him by a record margin?

[7,052,770]

A state overwhelmingly ready to re-elect him by a record margin?

I'll make a wager with you that Barbour gets less than 55.55% (the record margin)

[HardRCafé]

Blue avatar for you the rest of November if not?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, especially since they describe what Mississippi has become after 4 years under Barbour...

And Mississippi was such a utopia before Barbour came along! 

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I predict, sadly:

Jindal - 53
Boasso - 18
Georges - 15
Campbell - 9
Rest - 5

[StateBoiler]

Jindal wins it, becomes the new face of the GOP and is elected President in 2016. 

Why don't we let Mr. Jindal actually, I don't know, run the state for a little while first to see if he is competent.

[StateBoiler]

Blue avatar for you the rest of November if not?

No, make him have a Constitution or Libertarian Party avatar. That'll really bust his nut!

[Sam Spade]

Jindal 53%
Boasso 19%
Campbell 12%
Georges 11%
Other 5%

If Jindal were to pull over 55%, Landrieu should really watch out, imho.

[7,052,770]

Blue avatar for you the rest of November if not?

If you will wear a D-MS avatar if I'm right.

[RBH]

Considering that Jindal can't poll above 66% amongst white voters, and the polling is going to be totally off on African-Americans..

Jindal will recieve around 48 to 52 percent.

Boasso will win at least 3 parishes (St. Bernard, Plaquemines, Orleans is a possibility)

Georges will flop

[Brandon H]

I guessing Jindal getting 48%.

I watched two of the debates this week (one with and one without Jindal). Georges was the least impressive while Campbell was more impressive than I thought.

I'm sure I have already predicted Jindal running in 2016 on here.

Polls close in an hour or so.

[sethm0]

 In other LA races, I'm predicting Landrieu, Odom, and Dardenne winning re-election. Caldwell will win Attorney General. These are just guesses.

[sethm0]

 BTW, check out this map from the Louisiana SOS office: http://www.gcr1.com/electionscentral/.

 If it works it looks like it will be awesome.

[Brandon H]

Less than 1% reporting, but Campbell has 40,000 to Jindal's 18,000. Very early but a little odd. It won't last long.
Foti is in third place for Attorney General. The other statewide incumbents are looking good.

Jindal is now at 30,000 and Campbell hasn't went up much.

La SOS Site: http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=102007
That's starting to look more like what we were expecting.

[Alcon]

 BTW, check out this map from the Louisiana SOS office: http://www.gcr1.com/electionscentral/.

 If it works it looks like it will be awesome.

Damn, that's awesome!

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

4 New Orleans stations and at least one in Baton Rouge have live coverage. 
I've got WWL, WVUE, and WDSU on a Windows Media playlist to switch back and forth

Windows Media direct links:

WWL (CBS 4)
http://www.wwltv.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/makeASX.php?title=beloint_wwltv&live=1

WDSU (NBC 6)
http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38201.asx

WVUE (Fox
http://www.fox8live.com/www/Video/wvuehigh.asx