VA Sen: Report says Davis (R) likely to drop out

[Sam Spade]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/1007/Tom_Davis_opts_against_running_for_the_Senate.html

Once again, no real surprise here.  The announcement may take a little while, however, as he may only announce after his wife's election (and likely loss) a couple of weeks from now.

The big question, of course, is will he run for re-election and take away a prime Democratic opportunity seat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), "who has been seen as a leading candidate to replace retiring Sen. John Warner (R-VA) in 2008, may now be just a day away from announcing his own retirement from Congress," according to Roll Call.

Recent reports suggested that Davis "is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman."

"Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat."

If Davis retires, the VA-11 seat is very much in play.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/24/davis_may_announce_retirement_in_va11.html

[auburntiger]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

[Padfoot]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

IF he retires.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

People seem to have the silly idea that he represents a seat that would be a Democratic stronghold without him as the Republican candidate. The seat would be extremely competitive if Davis were to retire in the current political climate o/c, but these two things are quite different.

[Sam Spade]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

People seem to have the silly idea that he represents a seat that would be a Democratic stronghold without him as the Republican candidate. The seat would be extremely competitive if Davis were to retire in the current political climate o/c, but these two things are quite different.

Al, please stop it with the rationality around here. 

It would definitely be the strongest Dem chance in Virginia last time I checked if he retired, because none of the other GOP Reps seem to be interested in retiring and Thelma Drake in VA-02 doesn't even have a challenger yet.

[Sam Spade]

Anyway, here's the full announcement "drop out" story.  He has stayed mum, at least in this article from talking about re-election or not.  I suspect he's waiting until his wife's state Senate race is over.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1026/p25s01-usmb.html

The guy is simply an brilliant political strategist, if nothing else.

[MarkWarner08]

Anyway, here's the full announcement "drop out" story.  He has stayed mum, at least in this article from talking about re-election or not.  I suspect he's waiting until his wife's state Senate race is over.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1026/p25s01-usmb.html

The guy is simply an brilliant political strategist, if nothing else.

Look at the NRCC's 2000 track record in open seats.  Davis masterminded the GOP's narrow wins in FL-08, MO-06,  MI-08, and IL-10. He also spotted the vulnerability of Democratic incumbents in CT-02 and MN-06.  His attention to detail and his penchant for modesty, the former  of which is shared by Karl Rove, the latter of which is not, are unparalleled among GOP strategists. If I were a Republican incumbent with a tough reelection challenge, I'd put Tom "Every election cycle is like 1992" on hold, and call Rep. Davis for advice.

[Smash255]

This seat in Virginia will be the easiet DEm pickup of them all

People seem to have the silly idea that he represents a seat that would be a Democratic stronghold without him as the Republican candidate. The seat would be extremely competitive if Davis were to retire in the current political climate o/c, but these two things are quite different.

Stronghold, probably not, however the Dems would be the strong favorite in an open seat.  Its a district in one of if not the heaviest Dem trending area in the entire country, basically assured to go Dem on the Presidential level.  And if the Dems win nationally by a few points would likely be a double digit Dem victory on the Pres level.  Its quite hard for someone to win an open seat in a district which went to the opposing party's Presidential candidate by double digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

[Smash255]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Its the most Democratic district of any seat held by the Republicans, also much like the rest of Fairfax County and the rest of the NOVA suburbs of D.C its trending heavily Democratic as well.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Congressman Tom Davis (R) on Thursday said rumors of his looming retirement were "greatly exaggerated." However, Davis said he had not decided yet whether to seek re-election next year and will actively continue fundraising for his re-election in order to keep his 2008 options open. Davis also used his remarks to bash his own party. He attacked the Virginia GOP leaders for deciding to select a US Senate nominee next year with a convention instead of a primary, calling that a process "behind closed doors." He then went on to attack the national Republican Party as being "at a fork in the road right now, and we’re standing still. In my opinion, if the Republicans want to be a national party, we’re going to have to change the way we do some things. To date, that isn’t happening." He called on his party to abandon the current “issue matrix” that emphasized cultural and social issues. Instead, Davis said the GOP must return to its roots as a more centrist party that focuses on economic issues. As for the open US Senate race, Davis said he plans to be "disengaged" from everything political except his own race decision -- but promised he would quietly support the GOP Senate nominee next year.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

[MatthewVA]

VA-11 is not a heavily Democratic district, but it has been carried handily by recent statewide Democratic candidates. 

If it opens, it will be a top priority for the DCCC.  Even if it doesn't, it will still be on the radar.

[Person Man]

All your Viriginia are Belong To Us. You have no chance to invade Iran. Make your Diebold.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

I'm surprised the Club for Growth (of Democrats) hasn't fielded an ultra-conservative primary challenger so that they can ensure a Democratic takeover of the VA Senate.

Maybe moderate Republicans need to stop trying to be conservative-lite and start acting like real moderates.  Moderate Republicans are the Republican wing of the Republican Party - the hardcore individuals like Davis who are fighting for the Party on the frontlines - not just wrangling in a stupid primary over which person most resembles Ronald Reagan's corpse.  RINO Power t-shirts anyone?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

All your Viriginia are Belong To Us. You have no chance to invade Iran. Make your Diebold.

I didn't know Virginia was invading Iran?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

So what's her district like?

And in what states are there actually polls for state legislative races? I've never seen one here. Are districts much larger? Here State Senate districts are only about 70,000 and State House ones half that.

[Smash255]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

So what's her district like?

And in what states are there actually polls for state legislative races? I've never seen one here. Are districts much larger? Here State Senate districts are only about 70,000 and State House ones half that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/02/AR2007100202235.html

Their are 40 State Senate seats in Virginia, based off the population the district had about 175,000 people in 2000, probably closer to 200,000 now with approx 120,000 with 117,000 active registered voters according to the Virginia board of elections.  The district is more liberal than Davis's Congressional district.  Davis's congressional district voted narrowly for the amendment banning same sex marriage (by about 4.3%) while his wife's senate district voted against it (though I don't know the percentages)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Why is his wife so likely to lose?

Because polls have shown it likely to be so?

Also, how many Republicans do you know are so eager to admit they're only 'Republicans in name only'?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2007-09-30-0169.html

So what's her district like?

And in what states are there actually polls for state legislative races? I've never seen one here. Are districts much larger? Here State Senate districts are only about 70,000 and State House ones half that.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/02/AR2007100202235.html

Their are 40 State Senate seats in Virginia, based off the population the district had about 175,000 people in 2000, probably closer to 200,000 now with approx 120,000 with 117,000 active registered voters according to the Virginia board of elections.  The district is more liberal than Davis's Congressional district.  Davis's congressional district voted narrowly for the amendment banning same sex marriage (by about 4.3%) while his wife's senate district voted against it (though I don't know the percentages)

These are the numbers for the district according to Not Larry Sabato:

Kerry - 51.8%
Kaine - 61.0%
Webb - 58.4%
No on Marriage - 54.9%

Not exactly a Republican stronghold.

[Sam Spade]

Anyway, here's the full announcement "drop out" story.  He has stayed mum, at least in this article from talking about re-election or not.  I suspect he's waiting until his wife's state Senate race is over.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1026/p25s01-usmb.html

The guy is simply an brilliant political strategist, if nothing else.

Look at the NRCC's 2002 track record in open seats.  Davis masterminded the GOP's narrow wins in FL-08, MO-06,  MI-08, and IL-10. He also spotted the vulnerability of Democratic incumbents in CT-02 and MN-06.  His attention to detail and his penchant for modesty, the former  of which is shared by Karl Rove, the latter of which is not, are unparalleled among GOP strategists. If I were a Republican incumbent with a tough reelection challenge, I'd put Tom "Every election cycle is like 1992" on hold, and call Rep. Davis for advice.

I really didn't feel like pointing it out earlier, but all those gains were made in 2000, not 2002.

Which actually makes it more impressive, when you think about it...

[MarkWarner08]

Anyway, here's the full announcement "drop out" story.  He has stayed mum, at least in this article from talking about re-election or not.  I suspect he's waiting until his wife's state Senate race is over.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1026/p25s01-usmb.html

The guy is simply an brilliant political strategist, if nothing else.

Look at the NRCC's 2002 track record in open seats.  Davis masterminded the GOP's narrow wins in FL-08, MO-06,  MI-08, and IL-10. He also spotted the vulnerability of Democratic incumbents in CT-02 and MN-06.  His attention to detail and his penchant for modesty, the former  of which is shared by Karl Rove, the latter of which is not, are unparalleled among GOP strategists. If I were a Republican incumbent with a tough reelection challenge, I'd put Tom "Every election cycle is like 1992" on hold, and call Rep. Davis for advice.

I really didn't feel like pointing it out earlier, but all those gains were made in 2000, not 2002.

Which actually makes it more impressive, when you think about it...

Darn typo.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The September 2007 poll for Devolites-Davis is here, though be warned:

(1) It is an internal Democratic poll,
(2) We don't know what kind of leading questions may have been asked before the poll question.

For those too lazy to look, it's Davis 36, Petersen 46.

[HardRCafé]

The new strategy among Virginia Republican incumbents is to do everything humanly possible to lose.

[Democratic Hawk]

GOP Faces More Bad News in Virginia

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/10/gop_faces_more_bad_news_in_vir.html

Dave