NJ Elections : Poll - Dems have edge going into election --- More on Elections

[Conan]

http://www.politicsnj.com/eagleton-poll-coming-tomorrow-13179

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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/nyregion/24jersey.html?ref=nyregion
"South Jersey Democrats Poised to Shake Things Up "

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.politicsnj.com/eagleton-poll-coming-tomorrow-13179

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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/24/nyregion/24jersey.html?ref=nyregion
"South Jersey Democrats Poised to Shake Things Up "

Since the poll crosses the entire state, it's what I'd expect.  What really matters is how well Republicans are doing in about five or six state legislative districts across the state, almost all of which have a natural preference for the GOP: LD 1, 2, 8, 12, 14, and 39.

Sadly, the poll is useless.  I'd have much rather seen something like FDU did in 2003—polls of individual districts.

[MAS117]

I think Dems have a great chance to pick up seats in D1, 2, and 8. I think Baroni will win in 14 and that Karcher's seat is too close to call.

[Conan]

I am betting that Van Drew, Whelan, and Karcher will win. I have doubts of Bodine. Baroni will win in what ought to be a landslide.

I think Dems will increase in Senate for sure and that they will probably either break even or add to the assembly.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think Dems have a great chance to pick up seats in D1, 2, and 8. I think Baroni will win in 14 and that Karcher's seat is too close to call.

I agree on 1, 2, 12, and 14.  I think Democrats will ultimately fall short in District 8, but may have a shot at some Burlco Freeholder seats.

I am betting that Van Drew, Whelan, and Karcher will win. I have doubts of Bodine. Baroni will win in what ought to be a landslide.

I think Dems will increase in Senate for sure and that they will probably either break even or add to the assembly.

Dems gaining seats in the Senate is a no brainer, but I'm not sure the math is there to favor Democrats picking up seats in the Assembly.  Right off the bat, Republicans are strongly favored to pick up the Bodine seat in LD8 even if Bodine does win on top of the ballot, so that's R+1 to start.

Democrats are playing pure defense in LD1, and again, without Van Drew on the Assembly ticket (Albano who?), Republicans have a decent shot at picking up one or two seats there—especially the open Van Drew seat.  (I think Albano is narrowly favored for re-election.)

In LD2, Amodeo looks like a strong bet to hold the Blee (open) seat—he's definitely running far ahead of his competition.  I don't know if Republicans can pick up the open Whelan seat (the government shutdown puts a big question mark on the way this district will react to boosting a Democratic majority).  And if Amodeo runs huge numbers, Democrats are going to have problems with the 2nd seat simply because coattails are HUGE factors in two-seat Assembly races.

LD7 is a underfunded longshot (Diane Allen usually has coattails, so who knows).  I don't think the GOP will seriously pick up either Assembly seat, but since both are held by Democrats, the GOP has a free shot here.

The real action in LD8 is for Senate.  It's only in play because of Bodine's name and connections.  Democrats seem unlikely to win an Assembly seat here.

In LD12, Declan O'Scanlon seems to be the most likely replacement for Jen Beck—after all, he lost to Panter within the margin of error in 2005.  I don't think Panter will go down, but that's not needed for the GOP to boost their majority.  If Democrats are going to pad their Assembly numbers, they NEED to pick up a seat here.  It's just not going to happen in LD2.

The Clean Elections law totally screws the Democrats over in LD14—they can't follow the usual path to victory, which is to spend Republicans into the ground.  Baroni is a clear winner—like, 60+% of the vote winner—and this seems likely to keep his Assembly seat in Republican hands.  I don't think Greenstein will be a victim in all of this...she's weak in Trenton but strong at the ballot box.  My guess is that Goodwin takes a very narrow 2nd behind Greenstein based on his strength in Hamilton, with Bushman just out of contention in third.  (Further, I'd say Republicans come very close to knocking off Gilmore.)

In LD39, Bergen Dems are pretty strongly playing, but I think they'll come up short.  It's still a pretty Republican chunk of the county.

So, to sum things up, Republicans are way better than 50-50 to pick up the Bodine seat, and at least slightly better than 50-50 to hold all their open seats.  Or, at least, to replace lost seats with a picked up seat in LD1 or 2.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

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And one more.

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There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PoliticsNJ is reporting that Dick Codey is pulling out of the 39th Senate race, essentially ceding the district to the incumbent Republicans.

[MAS117]

PoliticsNJ is reporting that Dick Codey is pulling out of the 39th Senate race, essentially ceding the district to the incumbent Republicans.

As he should Cardinale will be reelected.

[MAS117]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

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And one more.

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There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

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And, what else is going on?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And one more.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.

[Conan]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And, what else is going on?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And one more.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

[MAS117]

I'm very hesitant to share news from the subscription-only Politifax, but the stuff in here is already floating around New Jersey's political circles, so...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And, what else is going on?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And one more.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There's a lot more good stuff in there............but if you want to know what, fork over some cash and subscribe.

This is what sucks about not being home in NJ! I don't get to read the very over charged Politifax!

Well, I guess the reason why Nick has to overcharge is because bastards like me spread around the news for free.  Seriously though, if you've got a job in the political field, its well worth its price.

True, I used to get it at work.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actually, according to PoliticsNJ today, Jen Beck is solidly in the lead.

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I'm moving this out of my own personal "toss-up" category to "lean Republican."  Probably means Panter is sweating a bit, too.

I anticipate Republicans will be going in to the next session with a 23-17 deficit in the State Senate, and a 48-32 deficit in the State Assembly.  This election cycle so far has not been going as well for Democrats as I expected—especially considering how poorly Republicans did in the recruiting game.

[Brittain33]

If the voters of New Jersey are stupid enough to increase the Democratic legislative majority, they will pay a very serious price; both monetary and in their quality of life.

New Jersey had a decade of all-Republican government and is only mid-way through a comparable amount of time with the Democrats. Property taxes went up under both administrations, and I defy anyone to explain how a Republican Trenton is going to improve quality of life in New Jersey, which seems driven by traffic, high housing costs, and continued development in a state that is already the most densely populated in the country. They can't, because these problems don't have easy solutions.

Perhaps in another few years Republicans can count on a "throw the bums out" election that gives them a chance to feed at the trough without resolving any of these problems and piling up more debt than usual because of tax cuts without any changes in spending, but in the Bush era, New Jersey seems comfortable with the Democratic bums.

[HardRCafé]

I anticipate Republicans will be going in to the next session with a 23-17 deficit in the State Senate, and a 48-32 deficit in the State Assembly.

What are the standings this session?

[Verily]

I anticipate Republicans will be going in to the next session with a 23-17 deficit in the State Senate, and a 48-32 deficit in the State Assembly.

What are the standings this session?

22-18 and 50-30 (both Democratic majorities)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If the voters of New Jersey are stupid enough to increase the Democratic legislative majority, they will pay a very serious price; both monetary and in their quality of life.

New Jersey had a decade of all-Republican government and is only mid-way through a comparable amount of time with the Democrats. Property taxes went up under both administrations, and I defy anyone to explain how a Republican Trenton is going to improve quality of life in New Jersey, which seems driven by traffic, high housing costs, and continued development in a state that is already the most densely populated in the country. They can't, because these problems don't have easy solutions.

Perhaps in another few years Republicans can count on a "throw the bums out" election that gives them a chance to feed at the trough without resolving any of these problems and piling up more debt than usual because of tax cuts without any changes in spending, but in the Bush era, New Jersey seems comfortable with the Democratic bums.

Trust me, New Jersey is not "comfortable with the Democratic bums."  New Jersey is very unhappy with its government (look at the numbers).  Problem for Republicans is that New Jersey is even less comfortable with Republicans.  (Fortunately for Republicans this cycle, all the battlegrounds are on GOP turf.)

Personally, I'd just like to see enough New Jersey Republicans in either house to put at least some kind of check on an all-Democratic government.  The State Senate is the logical place, where the GOP would have a say on judges and contracts.

The only thing I worry about is that Republicans and Democrats might actually work together as a team, and instead of 22 Senators working as a team to pass sweetheart contracts, we'd have 40 Senators working as a team.

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

If the voters of New Jersey are stupid enough to increase the Democratic legislative majority, they will pay a very serious price; both monetary and in their quality of life.

New Jersey had a decade of all-Republican government and is only mid-way through a comparable amount of time with the Democrats. Property taxes went up under both administrations, and I defy anyone to explain how a Republican Trenton is going to improve quality of life in New Jersey, which seems driven by traffic, high housing costs, and continued development in a state that is already the most densely populated in the country. They can't, because these problems don't have easy solutions.

Perhaps in another few years Republicans can count on a "throw the bums out" election that gives them a chance to feed at the trough without resolving any of these problems and piling up more debt than usual because of tax cuts without any changes in spending, but in the Bush era, New Jersey seems comfortable with the Democratic bums.

Trust me, New Jersey is not "comfortable with the Democratic bums."  New Jersey is very unhappy with its government (look at the numbers).  Problem for Republicans is that New Jersey is even less comfortable with Republicans.  (Fortunately for Republicans this cycle, all the battlegrounds are on GOP turf.)

Personally, I'd just like to see enough New Jersey Republicans in either house to put at least some kind of check on an all-Democratic government.  The State Senate is the logical place, where the GOP would have a say on judges and contracts.

The only thing I worry about is that Republicans and Democrats might actually work together as a team, and instead of 22 Senators working as a team to pass sweetheart contracts, we'd have 40 Senators working as a team.

I think you have to live in NJ to say "trust me" about anything that has to do with us. You don't live here anymore. I can't say how Arkansans or Floridians feel about there politicians based on polls. Polling for NJ, in my opinion, has been hard to do for poll firms, anyway.

Also, the republicans and dems in Trenton, are a team. There is minimal difference between them for the most part. It all goes back to where they get there support and money.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For those interested, PoliticsNJ updated their Prall Report a couple days back.

http://www.politicsnj.com/files/prall102507.pdf

They're calling the Senate at 22D, 17R, 1 toss-up (currently 22D, 18R).  In the State Assembly, it's 45D, 29R, with 6 toss-ups (currently 50D, 30R).

They're calling for three takeovers so far: In the State Senate, Sen. Ellen Karcher (D-12) and Sen. Nick Asselta (R-01) are in undeniable trouble; Republicans are favored to pick up the open seat in Assembly 08 vacated by party-switcher Fran Bodine (R-turned-D).

[Conan]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think I've read everything politifax said on PNJ except about Beck being up by 3. I don't buy that. She's a terrible campaigner.

It is clearly a Republican leaning district on most levels.  Further, Beck has a very strong base in Red Bank, a town Democrats could have otherwise hoped to win with landslide levels in.  For someone who won so convincingly over a pair of incumbents in 2005, you simply can NOT write her off as a terrible campaigner.

Because terrible campaigners don't win races like that after being outspent by infinity-to-one.

That has nothing to do with her campaign. She really isnt that great of a politician or campaigner. If she does win, she will win because we have a legislature that does for the most part deserve to be kicked out.

It's funny you're deriding Beck as a poor campaigner, since the universal complaint about Ellen Karcher is what a piss poor campaign she's been waging!  PoliticsNJ has moved the race out of the toss-up category and into the "leans Republican" category.

She won because of ethics in 2003, and may wind up losing, in part, because she wasn't as squeaky clean as voters thought she'd be.  The Asbury Park Press elected her, and four years later, it's working to throw her out.

Ellen Karcher's campaign has nothing to do with the quality of Beck's. I never said Karcher was running a good, bad, or bland campaign. We all know how she first won the seat, too. It was a great coup.  If Beck wins, it's because of a piss-poor campaign by Karcher in an already GOP district in what should have been an anti-Dem mood statewide.

I'm somewhat curious: What about Jen Beck's campaign seems to strike you as "poor"?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some more polling bits and pieces today, from assorted sources:

Why Codey pulling his financial backing out of District 39:

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In the District 2 Assembly races, Republicans are slightly favored to win both seats.  The district is currently split 1D, 1R; both are open seats.

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[HardRCafé]

We all know how she first won the seat, too.

Really?  I thought your contention was that only people still living in New Jersey knew anything.