Kentucky county map predictions?
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Author Topic: Kentucky county map predictions?  (Read 4048 times)
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« on: October 24, 2007, 11:11:29 PM »

Here's mine:

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memphis
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2007, 11:34:48 PM »


For what race do you predict this overwhelming Democratic landslide?
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2007, 11:37:18 PM »

The gubernatorial one of course.
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memphis
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2007, 11:41:20 PM »


I hadn't been following this race at all but after consulting the all-knowing wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_gubernatorial_election%2C_2007), your prediction seems reasonable.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2007, 10:58:16 AM »

I think Fletcher will lose Bracken, Robertson, and Campbell, but he might win Grant. I think Fletcher may win Martin County also.

Campbell County endured so much grief from conservatism 20 years ago that I just can't imagine him winning it now.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2007, 12:28:07 PM »

I think Fletcher will lose Bracken, Robertson, and Campbell, but he might win Grant. I think Fletcher may win Martin County also.

Campbell County endured so much grief from conservatism 20 years ago that I just can't imagine him winning it now.

Is that before or after Diebold changes the numbers?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2007, 12:30:00 PM »

Is that before or after Diebold changes the numbers?

After.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2007, 11:30:53 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2007, 11:32:56 PM by Pumpkin Fortuyn »


How do you create your own map like that? Is there a way to do it on the Atlas or do you use another one?

Good call about Boone, Oldham and Spencer Counties. They are much more Republican than their neighbors for some reason.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2007, 11:31:35 PM »

I just use MS Paint.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2007, 07:38:17 AM »

Unless something very strange happens, Fletcher will do a lot worse in Eastern Kentucky than that. Not quite sure if he'll get as badly thrashed in his old district as that either.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2007, 11:31:08 AM »

Perry County shouldn't even be nearly as close as the first map had it.

Remember, Beshear has Dan Mongiardo on the ticket.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2007, 02:55:40 AM »


I tried using that, but it doesn't have the different colors for percentages (light blue or pink for 30-39%, darker blue or red for 40-49%, etc.)

I'm interested because I want to make a map for the Wyoming At Large House Race from Last November.
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2007, 06:54:49 AM »


I tried using that, but it doesn't have the different colors for percentages (light blue or pink for 30-39%, darker blue or red for 40-49%, etc.)

I'm interested because I want to make a map for the Wyoming At Large House Race from Last November.

Of course it doesn't, all election maps have blocks of percentages for each color, I don't think anybody has 100 different schemes of one colour.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2007, 09:06:26 AM »


I tried using that, but it doesn't have the different colors for percentages (light blue or pink for 30-39%, darker blue or red for 40-49%, etc.)

I'm interested because I want to make a map for the Wyoming At Large House Race from Last November.

Just copy the key and use the dropper (?) thing to get at the colour.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2007, 02:57:18 PM »


How do you create your own map like that? Is there a way to do it on the Atlas or do you use another one?

Good call about Boone, Oldham and Spencer Counties. They are much more Republican than their neighbors for some reason.

Suburbs. Duh.

And I do what Al said.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2007, 10:01:28 PM »

I tried using that, but it doesn't have the different colors for percentages (light blue or pink for 30-39%, darker blue or red for 40-49%, etc.)

I'm interested because I want to make a map for the Wyoming At Large House Race from Last November.

Just copy the key and use the dropper (?) thing to get at the colour.


Good call about Boone, Oldham and Spencer Counties. They are much more Republican than their neighbors for some reason.

Suburbs. Duh.

And I do what Al said.


I tried it and it sort of worked. But it won't let me copy the map key, so I have to copy other maps where the percentages I want are used, then fill in the counties with that color. I'm probably making this much harder than it should be. I try again later.

But Lexington's suburbs aren't as GOP dominated, and it is the same size as Louisville. There's something strange about those 3 counties. Maybe Bandit knows.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2007, 10:03:55 PM »

But Lexington's suburbs aren't as GOP dominated, and it is the same size as Louisville. There's something strange about those 3 counties. Maybe Bandit knows.

Lexington isn't really the same size as Louisville. It only is population-wise because it takes up the whole county. Louisville is far more urban, and has a far larger metro area. And Boone isn't even metro Louisville, it's metro Cincinnati. Go look at the rest of the suburban Cincinnati counties. Nothing strange there at all.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2007, 10:05:42 PM »

But Lexington's suburbs aren't as GOP dominated, and it is the same size as Louisville. There's something strange about those 3 counties. Maybe Bandit knows.

If you're talking about Boone, Oldham, and Spencer, it's because most of the settlement there is newer. These are where they put the new wealthy subdivisions where the real activist wingnuts tend to congregate. In some of the counties around Lexington, they can't do this as much, because the horse farms there are too valuable to replace with new subdivisions.
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Cubby
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2007, 12:32:02 AM »

But Lexington's suburbs aren't as GOP dominated, and it is the same size as Louisville. There's something strange about those 3 counties. Maybe Bandit knows.

If you're talking about Boone, Oldham, and Spencer, it's because most of the settlement there is newer. These are where they put the new wealthy subdivisions where the real activist wingnuts tend to congregate. In some of the counties around Lexington, they can't do this as much, because the horse farms there are too valuable to replace with new subdivisions.

Interesting.

Is Dearborn County, IN (Lawrenceburg) considered part of the Cinncinnati Metro area?


Lexington isn't really the same size as Louisville. It only is population-wise because it takes up the whole county. Louisville is far more urban, and has a far larger metro area. And Boone isn't even metro Louisville, it's metro Cincinnati. Go look at the rest of the suburban Cincinnati counties. Nothing strange there at all.

You're right. Its like 700,000 vs. 250,000. Those county-wide cities are deceiving. I thought Boone was more Republican, but looking at the 2004 numbers, its the same as Warren and Clermont, OH.

Boone is to Cincinnati as Carver is to Minneapolis (not just a Republican-leaning suburb, but hyper-Republican)

---------------------

Sorry to drift off topic
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2007, 12:41:11 AM »

More like Scott or Sherburne. Carver is a completely different beast even compared to the rest of the outer suburban counties.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2007, 01:17:01 AM »

More like Scott or Sherburne. Carver is a completely different beast even compared to the rest of the outer suburban counties.

How so? I thought it was the most Republican county in the state (not counting outliers like Otter Tail and Roseau)
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2007, 10:16:32 AM »

Is Dearborn County, IN (Lawrenceburg) considered part of the Cinncinnati Metro area?

Officially it is.

Dearborn County is also trending to the wingnuts thanks to new subdivisions.

As for Boone County, it's become so conservative that it banned Halloween festivities a few years ago because Halloween fell on a Sunday.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2007, 10:30:45 AM »

But Lexington's suburbs aren't as GOP dominated, and it is the same size as Louisville. There's something strange about those 3 counties. Maybe Bandit knows.

If you're talking about Boone, Oldham, and Spencer, it's because most of the settlement there is newer. These are where they put the new wealthy subdivisions where the real activist wingnuts tend to congregate. In some of the counties around Lexington, they can't do this as much, because the horse farms there are too valuable to replace with new subdivisions.
Ah, a more German-style suburban development then, with agricultural pockets in between everywhere. Smiley
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2007, 12:30:24 PM »

More like Scott or Sherburne. Carver is a completely different beast even compared to the rest of the outer suburban counties.

How so? I thought it was the most Republican county in the state (not counting outliers like Otter Tail and Roseau)

Carver has always been Republican, long before suburbanization. The last time it voted for a Democrat for President was 1932. Every other metro county has as recently as 1996.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2007, 11:28:06 PM »
« Edited: November 06, 2007, 11:38:39 PM by The Hated »




Pretty close actually. A bit too generous to Fletcher really.
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