Mississippi Results

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's a 42% improvement, not insignificant.

[memphis]

That's a 42% improvement, not insignificant.

42% over whites for John Kerry in MS. It still doesn't make much difference. Anyhow, it's not really fair to compare presidential and gubernatorial races. The Democrat just landslided Kentucky. It's not like we're going to see that in 08.

[Rob]

Wow! A few blacks with Barbour signs? That's real evidence Barbour massively improved among blacks.

Former congressman (and Clinton Cabinet member) Mike Espy, a black Democrat, endorsed Barbour and called him his "homeboy." Barbour worked hard for a higher share of the black vote, featuring an African-American doctor in one ad praising tort reform; he also bragged about the federal funds he directed toward black families displaced by Katrina.

So it's not too unlikely that Barbour significantly increased his support among blacks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I suppose the best measure of if there was any drop in black turnout would be to compare the ratio of votes cast in mostly white counties in 2007 to 2004 and then look at the ratio in mostly black counties, to see if the drop percentage wise was worse.

Too lazy to do that now though. Maybe later.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK, I did do 4 counties for now:

White:
Madison - turnout was 67.2% of 2004
Rankin - turnout was 63.19% of 2004

Black:
Claiborne - turnout was 62.55% of 2004
Holmes - turnout was 59.6% of 2004

So there was a greater drop in black turnout from these examples. Whether that happened across the entire state and was the only factor needs to be determined later.