leading 2012 Democratic presidential candidates as of early 2009?--10/07 edition

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I did a poll that was similar to this back in March, and then another one in June.  This one's similar, but now that the '08 presidential race is further developed, people's opinions might have shifted.  I'll probably do another poll like this in February, once the '08 nominations have been clinched, and then again in late Summer '08 after the VP nominees have been chosen.

For the purpose of this poll, assume the Republicans win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a GOP victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~18 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

Unlike the previous iteration of this poll, you can now pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

My picks are: Obama, Warner, and....not sure on the third person

For fun, if you like, you can also offer your opinion on who the media will include in the very first 2012 Democratic primary poll, which would probably come as early as Nov. 2008.  In 2004, McLaughlin & Associates did a 2008 poll on election day, which included these names and results:

Clinton 27
Kerry 16
Edwards 7
Gore 4
Dean 4
Bayh 3
Clark 2
Obama 2
Harold Ford Jr. 1
Mark Warner 1

Their list of options included all three of the eventual 1st tier '08 candidates, along with a bunch of other people who didn't run.

Now I'm off to make the equivalent thread for the GOP......

[Mr. Morden]

These were the top choices from a similar poll here in March (when you were limited to two options, and the question was phrased a bit differently):

(name, followed by # of votes)

Obama 7
Warner 7
Spitzer 3
Bayh 2
Henry 2

and the top choices in June (when many more people voted):

Obama 16
Warner 11
Henry 6
Spitzer 5
Sebelius 4

[Frodo]

If Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, and she still doesn't win in 2008, I presume Democrats will likely go for someone a little less closely tied to the establishment. 

I am picking: Former governor and (soon-to-be) current Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, and Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma. 

[phk]

Mark Warner

[HappyWarrior]

Warner, Henry, and Sebelius.

[auburntiger]

Warner, Bayh, Strickland.

Warner is one Dem I like alot, actually.

[BushKenya]

I chose Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, but I also chose Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona.

She seems to me to be an up and coming Democrat, too, from a pretty red state federally.  If Brad Henry has a real good shot (which he does), Janet will, too.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

If the Republican Party wins in 2008 (with Mitt Romney), the leading Democratic Presidential candidates for 2012, as early as 2009 would be in my mind the following:

Brad Henry
Evan Bayh
Mark Warner
Eliot Spitzer
Barack Obama

[Secretary Polnut]

I chose Governor Brad Henry of Oklahoma, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, but I also chose Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona.

She seems to me to be an up and coming Democrat, too, from a pretty red state federally.  If Brad Henry has a real good shot (which he does), Janet will, too.

Napolitano has some... things which might make a national run difficult.

[Verily]

Obama, Sebelius and Strickland

I do not expect Mark Warner to be running for President only four years after entering the Senate. It's possible, but I doubt it.

[Chris B]

Unless he wins the nomination, but loses the general election, there isn't any doubt in my mind that Obama would be the clear frontrunner for 2012. I think Mark Warner would follow in second place, with Brad Henry either being tied with him or not being that far behind.

[Chris B]

I do not expect Mark Warner to be running for President only four years after entering the Senate. It's possible, but I doubt it.

If he's smart, then he should realize that he would be better off running when he wouldn't have much of a record to defend. So 2012 or 2016 would make sense.

[© Tweed the Younger]

voted Feingold, Obama, O'Malley

[big bad fab]

And what about Stephanie Herseth, SD ?

[big bad fab]

And what about Stephanie Herseth, SD ?

I mean, if Hillary loses...

[Mr. Morden]

I didn't include Herseth because she's just a House member who's not yet even running for governor or senator, and I haven't read any media discussion of her having an interest in national office.  I didn't bother to include House members in the list of choices unless there was a compelling reason to.  (I included Pence in the GOP poll because there were rumors suggesting he might run in 2008, so I figured he might end up trying in 2012.)

But if you can make a case for why Herseth might run for president in 2012, I could add her to the next poll like this that I do (probably in February).

[big bad fab]

Herseth: another political heiress, another good-looking face, another moderate Dem who can hold the center ground against GOP candidates pushed to the far too right side of the political scene. And reasonably young.
So, you can add her to your next list !

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Warner, Bayh and Strickland. People will do to Obama what peope did to Kerry if he loses at any point. He will just be seen as an incompetent quasi-socialist revivisionist, unless the dems win...then again, Reagan, right?

[HappyWarrior]

I'm hoping for O'Malley and Sebelius.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I like Webb's chances in 2012, but not 2016 b/c he is going to lose in 2012 imho.

I also like Bill Ritter a lot for the nomination as well as Brad Henry

After being out of power for 12 years, Dems are not going to gamble with some on the looney left

[Chris B]

Mr. Morden, you should add Sherrod Brown to you're next poll on this topic.

[Proud Paleoconservative]

btw Warner and Obama. I would like to see Schweitzer but he's to conservative to get the nod. how is Schweitzer on immigration?

[InsaneTrollLogic]

btw Warner and Obama. I would like to see Schweitzer but he's to conservative to get the nod. how is Schweitzer on immigration?

He's actually not that conservative. He could be the triangulator, however.

[pragmatic liberal]

Hillary Clinton may run again, although she may not as well -- her time was '04 (when she didn't run) and '08. If she doesn't get the nomination this year (which isn't looking likely) then she probably won't run again.

I could see Barack Obama running again, even if he is the losing nominee this year.

Besides them, Evan Bayh is a big possibility (although while I like Bayh, I'd rate his chances of success fairly low -- he doesn't excite the party base and he's not very dynamic). As will soon-to-be-Senator Mark Warner. Yes, he'd have just been elected in '08, but he previously served as governor and Obama's run might make people more receptive to a first-term senator running for president.

I'd also rate Eliot Spitzer, Deval Patrick and Martin O'Malley as potential picks, assuming they all (Spitzer, especially) extricate themselves from their current lows. Also Ted Strickland and maybe Bill Ritter.

A lot of people keep mentioning people like Brad Henry and Kathleen Sebelius. And they're possibilities, but keep a few things in mind: one, the parties are increasingly ideologically unified. It's true that another Republican victory might make Democrats look at a more centrist figure, but for them to pick someone as conservative as Henry would be awfully unlikely. Clinton in '92 was a centrist choice, but he ran to the left and was actually well to the left of most other Southern Dems (Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, etc.).

Moreover, the truth is that small-state governors typically aren't nominated or elected. Bill Clinton was the big exception, not the rule. And he may well not have been nominated had it not been for (a) the absence of major-name Democrats in the race, (b) his long period of service as governor (12 years) and his leadership of the DLC, (c) his charisma. Otherwise, governors that get nominated for president tend to lead a large state or a medium-sized eastern seaboard state.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Then again, if Macky C is popular in 2011 (more than an approval rating of 51%, and especially if it is in the 55-70 neighborhood), the party leaders might sit it out and nominate a small state governor to run. That's what happened in 1992. If there is no Republican Consensus by 2011-2012, expect the usual suspects to be in the running. Bayh and Warner.