leading 2012 Democratic presidential candidates as of early 2009?--10/07 edition

[Mr. Morden]

OK, I did a poll that was similar to this back in March, and then another one in June.  This one's similar, but now that the '08 presidential race is further developed, people's opinions might have shifted.  I'll probably do another poll like this in February, once the '08 nominations have been clinched, and then again in late Summer '08 after the VP nominees have been chosen.

For the purpose of this poll, assume the Republicans win the 2008 presidential election.  Whichever scenario for a GOP victory in '08 that you think is most likely, assume that that happens.  Now here's the question: In the spring of 2009 (just ~18 months from now), who do you think will make up the media-annointed "first tier"  of potential contenders for the 2012 Democratic nomination?

Unlike the previous iteration of this poll, you can now pick up to three names, but just to be clear, these are the people who you think the media and political insiders will regard as the initial "first tier".  It doesn't mean that they'll be leading in the early 2012 polls, just as (for example) Mitt Romney was regarded as a "first tier" candidate well before he reached double digits in the national polls.  (Likewise, George Allen would have been considered a "first tier" 2008 candidate in late 2005 / early 2006, but in his case his candidacy didn't go anywhere, for obvious reasons.)

My picks are: Obama, Warner, and....not sure on the third person

For fun, if you like, you can also offer your opinion on who the media will include in the very first 2012 Democratic primary poll, which would probably come as early as Nov. 2008.  In 2004, McLaughlin & Associates did a 2008 poll on election day, which included these names and results:

Clinton 27
Kerry 16
Edwards 7
Gore 4
Dean 4
Bayh 3
Clark 2
Obama 2
Harold Ford Jr. 1
Mark Warner 1

Their list of options included all three of the eventual 1st tier '08 candidates, along with a bunch of other people who didn't run.

Now I'm off to make the equivalent thread for the GOP......

[Mr. Morden]

These were the top choices from a similar poll here in March (when you were limited to two options, and the question was phrased a bit differently):

(name, followed by # of votes)

Obama 7
Warner 7
Spitzer 3
Bayh 2
Henry 2

and the top choices in June (when many more people voted):

Obama 16
Warner 11
Henry 6
Spitzer 5
Sebelius 4

[Mr. Morden]

I didn't include Herseth because she's just a House member who's not yet even running for governor or senator, and I haven't read any media discussion of her having an interest in national office.  I didn't bother to include House members in the list of choices unless there was a compelling reason to.  (I included Pence in the GOP poll because there were rumors suggesting he might run in 2008, so I figured he might end up trying in 2012.)

But if you can make a case for why Herseth might run for president in 2012, I could add her to the next poll like this that I do (probably in February).

[Mr. Morden]

I was thinking about doing another of these polls (for both parties) after March 4th, if Obama had finished Clinton off.  But since her campaign is hanging on for now, I'll wait until the nomination is more settled....maybe May 7th.  When it's absolutely clear who the two nominees are, then we'll have a better idea of who might be the most likely candidates for 2012.