leading 2012 Democratic presidential candidates as of early 2009?--10/07 edition

[pragmatic liberal]

Hillary Clinton may run again, although she may not as well -- her time was '04 (when she didn't run) and '08. If she doesn't get the nomination this year (which isn't looking likely) then she probably won't run again.

I could see Barack Obama running again, even if he is the losing nominee this year.

Besides them, Evan Bayh is a big possibility (although while I like Bayh, I'd rate his chances of success fairly low -- he doesn't excite the party base and he's not very dynamic). As will soon-to-be-Senator Mark Warner. Yes, he'd have just been elected in '08, but he previously served as governor and Obama's run might make people more receptive to a first-term senator running for president.

I'd also rate Eliot Spitzer, Deval Patrick and Martin O'Malley as potential picks, assuming they all (Spitzer, especially) extricate themselves from their current lows. Also Ted Strickland and maybe Bill Ritter.

A lot of people keep mentioning people like Brad Henry and Kathleen Sebelius. And they're possibilities, but keep a few things in mind: one, the parties are increasingly ideologically unified. It's true that another Republican victory might make Democrats look at a more centrist figure, but for them to pick someone as conservative as Henry would be awfully unlikely. Clinton in '92 was a centrist choice, but he ran to the left and was actually well to the left of most other Southern Dems (Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, etc.).

Moreover, the truth is that small-state governors typically aren't nominated or elected. Bill Clinton was the big exception, not the rule. And he may well not have been nominated had it not been for (a) the absence of major-name Democrats in the race, (b) his long period of service as governor (12 years) and his leadership of the DLC, (c) his charisma. Otherwise, governors that get nominated for president tend to lead a large state or a medium-sized eastern seaboard state.