Hawkeye Poll: Clinton and Obama in dead heat; Romney running away with it in IA.
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  Hawkeye Poll: Clinton and Obama in dead heat; Romney running away with it in IA.
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Author Topic: Hawkeye Poll: Clinton and Obama in dead heat; Romney running away with it in IA.  (Read 824 times)
Eraserhead
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« on: October 29, 2007, 01:49:25 PM »

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071029/ap_po/poll2008_iowa_1

Dems:

Clinton: 29%
Obama: 27%
Edwards: 20%
Richardson: 7%
Biden: 5%

GOP:

Romney: 36%
Giuliani: 13%
Huckabee: 13%
Thompson: 11%
McCain: 6%




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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2007, 03:34:08 PM »

It should be noted that the methodology here was a bit different from most polls.  The poll respondants were asked who they supported, but were not prompted with any list of names of candidates, so they had to volunteer the names on their own.  Whether that makes it more or less accurate is up to you to decide.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2007, 03:43:59 PM »

It should be noted that the methodology here was a bit different from most polls.  The poll respondants were asked who they supported, but were not prompted with any list of names of candidates, so they had to volunteer the names on their own.  Whether that makes it more or less accurate is up to you to decide.


This poll seems not out of line with other recent polling, maybe more on the Republican side than on the Democratic one. Iowa is Clinton´s weakest state as we know, besides the obvious disadvantages she enjoys in the states of some favorite sons (IL, NC and NM). Obama can still win IA, but is it enough of a boost for him ? He needs to at least improve his poll numbers in SC as well. On the GOP side, I have no doubt that Romney will win IA and that Huckabee may finish second, Thompson third. As for the methodology, I think candidates who already aired TV ads are slightly favored in this poll (->Romney), but as I said, the poll seems not really out of line.
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Trilobyte
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2007, 04:10:58 PM »

If Edwards wins in IA, then Obama will be in trouble since it's hard to see him winning anywhere else. The same is true for Edwards if Obama wins in IA. Therefore IA is a must-win for both Obama and Edwards, but not Clinton.
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Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2007, 06:10:39 PM »

President Romney.

*shudder*
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2007, 07:48:33 PM »

It should be noted that the methodology here was a bit different from most polls.  The poll respondants were asked who they supported, but were not prompted with any list of names of candidates, so they had to volunteer the names on their own.  Whether that makes it more or less accurate is up to you to decide.


This poll seems not out of line with other recent polling, maybe more on the Republican side than on the Democratic one. Iowa is Clinton´s weakest state as we know, besides the obvious disadvantages she enjoys in the states of some favorite sons (IL, NC and NM). Obama can still win IA, but is it enough of a boost for him ? He needs to at least improve his poll numbers in SC as well. On the GOP side, I have no doubt that Romney will win IA and that Huckabee may finish second, Thompson third. As for the methodology, I think candidates who already aired TV ads are slightly favored in this poll (->Romney), but as I said, the poll seems not really out of line.

A win would be massive for Obama in Iowa especially considering it is a lily white state. I imagine that he would surge in NH after as Kerry did in '04. As for SC, does anyone know what is going on there? I haven't seen a new SC poll in over a month.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2007, 02:16:40 AM »

Obama and Edwards NEED an early win - Clinton doesn't. Iowa polling is unreliable at best.

In 2004 Dean's "support" was like a big broad pane of glass - once people knew he didn't have enough support - they dropped him, and the glass shattered.  Clinton is not Dean people, and Obama is NOT Kerry.
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