Alabama - 2000

[nclib]

This is not a rhetorical question.

Anyhow, since Alabama had the highest Republican swing from 2000-2004 (and I imagine the GOP was unable to gain among black voters), there must have been significant white support for Gore in Alabama.

What is the explanation for those whites voting for Gore in 2000, and why did many switch to Bush in 2004?

[Padfoot]

2000 Explanation:

Gore was a Southerner and was the VP for a Southern president.  He got about the same percentage as Clinton did in '92 and '96.

2004 Explanation:

Kerry was a Massachusetts liberal.  No further explanation needed.

[WalterMitty]

This is not a rhetorical question.

Anyhow, since Alabama had the highest Republican swing from 2000-2004 (and I imagine the GOP was unable to gain among black voters), there must have been significant white support for Gore in Alabama.

What is the explanation for those whites voting for Gore in 2000, and why did many switch to Bush in 2004?

i dont know if there was significant white support for gore in alabama.

the bush 04 campaign, thanks to gay marriage, was able to get a lot more evangelicals to the poll  in 04 than they did in 2000.

donna brazille, gore's campaign manager, did an excellent job in getting the black vote out for gore in 2000....a big reason why he was able to win florida.

[gorkay]

I don't know if this is true or not, but I would guess that maybe the Gore campaign put more effort into states like Alabama, since they thought they might have a chance of winning some of them.

[auburntiger]

This is not a rhetorical question.

Anyhow, since Alabama had the highest Republican swing from 2000-2004 (and I imagine the GOP was unable to gain among black voters), there must have been significant white support for Gore in Alabama.

What is the explanation for those whites voting for Gore in 2000, and why did many switch to Bush in 2004?

i dont know if there was significant white support for gore in alabama.

the bush 04 campaign, thanks to gay marriage, was able to get a lot more evangelicals to the poll  in 04 than they did in 2000.

donna brazille, gore's campaign manager, did an excellent job in getting the black vote out for gore in 2000....a big reason why he was able to win florida.

except Gore didn't win Florida

[Filuwaúrdjan]

i dont know if there was significant white support for gore in alabama.

He won three white, working class counties in the north of the state. O/c the unusual result isn't 2000; it's 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...while Kerry lost a fair few votes (despite increased turnout) in others.

Here's an example; Walker county (industrial area NW of Birmingham; voted twice for Clinton and also for Dukakis)...

Bush 13,486  Gore 11,621
Bush 19,167  Kerry  9,016

But here's the interesting part; Kerry polled 1,669 less votes in Alabama than Gore. And 2,605 less in Walker county.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

2000 Explanation:

Gore was a Southerner and was the VP for a Southern president.  He got about the same percentage as Clinton did in '92 and '96.

2004 Explanation:

Kerry was a Massachusetts liberal.  No further explanation needed.

[Sensei]

This is not a rhetorical question.

Anyhow, since Alabama had the highest Republican swing from 2000-2004 (and I imagine the GOP was unable to gain among black voters), there must have been significant white support for Gore in Alabama.

What is the explanation for those whites voting for Gore in 2000, and why did many switch to Bush in 2004?

i dont know if there was significant white support for gore in alabama.

the bush 04 campaign, thanks to gay marriage, was able to get a lot more evangelicals to the poll  in 04 than they did in 2000.

donna brazille, gore's campaign manager, did an excellent job in getting the black vote out for gore in 2000....a big reason why he was able to win florida.

except Gore didn't win Florida

says you

[Tender Branson]

2000 Explanation:

Gore was a Southerner and was the VP for a Southern president.  He got about the same percentage as Clinton did in '92 and '96.

2004 Explanation:

Kerry was a Massachusetts liberal.  No further explanation needed.

Conclusion: Hillary Clinton is the wife of a Southern President and a NY "liberal". She´ll get ___ % of the vote in Alabama ...

Correct answer: 40-45%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regionalism does not explain every odd electoral pattern in the U.S. Note that Dukakis did fairly well in Northern Alabama.

[nclib]

2000 Explanation:

Gore was a Southerner and was the VP for a Southern president.  He got about the same percentage as Clinton did in '92 and '96.

2004 Explanation:

Kerry was a Massachusetts liberal.  No further explanation needed.

Accurate, though why did Alabama swing more GOP in 2004 than the rest of the South (and the nation)?

[auburntiger]

This is not a rhetorical question.

Anyhow, since Alabama had the highest Republican swing from 2000-2004 (and I imagine the GOP was unable to gain among black voters), there must have been significant white support for Gore in Alabama.

What is the explanation for those whites voting for Gore in 2000, and why did many switch to Bush in 2004?

i dont know if there was significant white support for gore in alabama.

the bush 04 campaign, thanks to gay marriage, was able to get a lot more evangelicals to the poll  in 04 than they did in 2000.

donna brazille, gore's campaign manager, did an excellent job in getting the black vote out for gore in 2000....a big reason why he was able to win florida.

except Gore didn't win Florida

says you

...and every one else who remembers the five weeks of recounting, and the history books. You all will probably win next year, so I would get excited about it and forget about your mistakes in 2000 and 2004.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, look at the swings in the 3rd and 4th Congressional districts between 2000 and 2004.  The third nearly voted for Gore in 2000 but went 58%-41% for Bush in 2004.  The fourth(which includes many blue collar white Democrats) went 61%-37% for Bush in 2000, but 71%-28% for him in 2004.  It looks like Bush gained a lot of support among blue collar whites who voted for Gore. 

[Smash255]

Racially based voting?  Whites, especially rural whites moved heavily towards the GOP in parts of the south.  You don't notice a real shift in Mississippi, because whites already were voting GOp at about max levels.  Georgia shifted GOP, and the trend among rural whites is larger than the trend of the state alone suggests.  Metro Atlanta with the exception of some of the exurbs, shifted Democratic, take that shift out and you see that Georgia, especially  white rural areas of Georgia trended Republican at similar rates as white rural parts of  Alabama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Also, look at the swings in the 3rd and 4th Congressional districts between 2000 and 2004.  The third nearly voted for Gore in 2000 but went 58%-41% for Bush in 2004.  The fourth(which includes many blue collar white Democrats) went 61%-37% for Bush in 2000, but 71%-28% for him in 2004.  It looks like Bush gained a lot of support among blue collar whites who voted for Gore. 

According to a little model of census (and other stuff) I made a while ago, the fourth is one of the most working class districts in the entire U.S.

There was, of course, a swing to Bush in most white, working class areas in 2004.

Racially based voting?

No. Or at least, it's certainly not something responsible for the swings in 2004. The worst of racial polarisation in Alabama is further south; Northern Alabama is quite industrial (traditionally mining, steel and so on in the west and textiles in the east) and not really in the Deep South, politically, socially, demographically... or even geographically.