New Mexico Senate 2008: Lake Research (D) poll - Chavez (D) 41%, Wilson (R) 40%

[Adlai Stevenson]

A Lake Reseach (D) poll conducted for the U.S. Senate campaign of Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D) showed him narrowly beating Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) in a hypothetical Senate matchup, according to Roll Call.

The survey found Chavez edging Wilson, 41% to 40%, with 19% undecided.

Key finding for Democrats: "The poll found Chavez leading Wilson among independent voters 48% to 30%."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/10/30/poll_suggests_close_race_for_new_mexico_senate_seat.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

But no Chavez/Pierce numbers were released.  Telling.

[Sam Spade]

The name is Pearce.

Knowing that this is a (D) firm, it means that Chavez is down to Wilson by at least 5 points, maybe more.

[MarkWarner08]

The name is Pearce.

Knowing that this is a (D) firm, it means that Chavez is down to Wilson by at least 5 points, maybe more.

Sam, how come there are so many strong Democratic candidates in NM-02 and so few equally qualified Republicans? Why would there be a dearth of strong GOPers in such as culturally and economically conservative district?

[Sam Spade]

The name is Pearce.

Knowing that this is a (D) firm, it means that Chavez is down to Wilson by at least 5 points, maybe more.

Sam, how come there are so many strong Democratic candidates in NM-02 and so few equally qualified Republicans? Why would there be a dearth of strong GOPers in such as culturally and economically conservative district?

Uh, there are strong GOPers in NM-02, but none of them have said they are running yet (might be fear, who knows).  I said the CD is less Republican than people think (though no one listened).  The most likely GOP candidate, btw, is Ed Tinsley, the guy (restaurant owner, actually) who lost the primary to Pearce in 2000 and was supported there by Skeen (the Republican incumbent).  He can self-fund.

That part of New Mexico, like all parts of New Mexico, has strong Democratic candidates.  Lots of conservative Dems and Independents in Little Texas who vote Republican on many phases of government (but not locally).  Republicans in New Mexico actually tend to be centered in the suburbs of Albuquerque (which is why Wilson is stronger in the primary than some might think).

The problem for Democrats is that the crappiest machine-hack candidate always seems to get through the Democratic primaries, and that hurts here more than anywhere else.  The conservative Dems and Indys would look more favorably upon a right-wing Republican than a moderate.  And if Hillary looks likely to win, I doubt this CD would look favorably upon electing a Democrat along with her.  It's an odd place, much like all of New Mexico actually, that defies most common-held political logic.

[MarkWarner08]

The name is Pearce.

Knowing that this is a (D) firm, it means that Chavez is down to Wilson by at least 5 points, maybe more.

Sam, how come there are so many strong Democratic candidates in NM-02 and so few equally qualified Republicans? Why would there be a dearth of strong GOPers in such as culturally and economically conservative district?

Uh, there are strong GOPers in NM-02, but none of them have said they are running yet (might be fear, who knows).  I said the CD is less Republican than people think (though no one listened).  The most likely GOP candidate, btw, is Ed Tinsley, the guy (restaurant owner, actually) who lost the primary to Pearce in 2000 and was supported there by Skeen (the Republican incumbent).  He can self-fund.

That part of New Mexico, like all parts of New Mexico, has strong Democratic candidates.  Lots of conservative Dems and Independents in Little Texas who vote Republican on many phases of government (but not locally).  Republicans in New Mexico actually tend to be centered in the suburbs of Albuquerque (which is why Wilson is stronger in the primary than some might think).

The problem for Democrats is that the crappiest machine-hack candidate always seems to get through the Democratic primaries, and that hurts here more than anywhere else.  The conservative Dems and Indys would look more favorably upon a right-wing Republican than a moderate.  And if Hillary looks likely to win, I doubt this CD would look favorably upon electing a Democrat along with her.  It's an odd place, much like all of New Mexico actually, that defies most common-held political logic.

Is Teague the right fit? I've heard McCamley is too green (not the enviro kind) to win this seat.

[Sam Spade]

The name is Pearce.

Knowing that this is a (D) firm, it means that Chavez is down to Wilson by at least 5 points, maybe more.

Sam, how come there are so many strong Democratic candidates in NM-02 and so few equally qualified Republicans? Why would there be a dearth of strong GOPers in such as culturally and economically conservative district?

Uh, there are strong GOPers in NM-02, but none of them have said they are running yet (might be fear, who knows).  I said the CD is less Republican than people think (though no one listened).  The most likely GOP candidate, btw, is Ed Tinsley, the guy (restaurant owner, actually) who lost the primary to Pearce in 2000 and was supported there by Skeen (the Republican incumbent).  He can self-fund.

That part of New Mexico, like all parts of New Mexico, has strong Democratic candidates.  Lots of conservative Dems and Independents in Little Texas who vote Republican on many phases of government (but not locally).  Republicans in New Mexico actually tend to be centered in the suburbs of Albuquerque (which is why Wilson is stronger in the primary than some might think).

The problem for Democrats is that the crappiest machine-hack candidate always seems to get through the Democratic primaries, and that hurts here more than anywhere else.  The conservative Dems and Indys would look more favorably upon a right-wing Republican than a moderate.  And if Hillary looks likely to win, I doubt this CD would look favorably upon electing a Democrat along with her.  It's an odd place, much like all of New Mexico actually, that defies most common-held political logic.

Is Teague the right fit? I've heard McCamley is too green (not the enviro kind) to win this seat.

The Primary will be fought within Teague and Cervantes (State Rep. from Dona Ana) who entered the race yesterday, IMHO.  McCamley is probably too young (I agree) and simply does not have the funding that Teague and Cervantes will have.

Teague is probably stronger in the GE, but will be attacked by Cervantes as basically being Pearce-lite (Teague has supported him in the past).  I would expect Cervantes to be the eventual nominee.

[TheresNoMoney]

Chavez is a horrible Democrat and will lose the general election.

[Torie]

The last poll I saw showed Peace running much stronger than Wilson against the Dem. That might be why that matchup was missing. Now just why Peace would be a much stronger candidate than Wilson against a Dem I don't know, assuming the poll I saw was accurate.

[opebo]

Chavez is a horrible Democrat and will lose the general election.

Correct as usual, TNM.  DLC/right-wing is a losing strategy for the Democratic Party.