Rothenberg: Don't buy the '08 spin
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  Rothenberg: Don't buy the '08 spin
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Author Topic: Rothenberg: Don't buy the '08 spin  (Read 947 times)
MarkWarner08
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« on: October 30, 2007, 08:31:21 PM »

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/10/here_we_go_again_an_antiincumb.html

Worth a read...
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2007, 08:59:47 PM »

Worth a read indeed.  Stuart Rothenberg seems to always come very close to right. 
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Nym90
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2007, 12:52:33 AM »

Especially relevant is his point that the main reason the Democratic Congress is so disliked is because liberals are angry at them for not going far enough. That doesn't mean liberals are going to stay home or vote out Democratic incumbents. In the end they'll still vote Democratic as the lesser of the two evils, even if they don't like them.

Plus, as always, most people like their own representative just fine....it's just all those other bastards that keep messing things up, right? Smiley
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2007, 01:24:25 AM »

Especially relevant is his point that the main reason the Democratic Congress is so disliked is because liberals are angry at them for not going far enough. That doesn't mean liberals are going to stay home or vote out Democratic incumbents. In the end they'll still vote Democratic as the lesser of the two evils, even if they don't like them.

Plus, as always, most people like their own representative just fine....it's just all those other bastards that keep messing things up, right? Smiley

Exactly. All those Congressman are worthless, except mine Wink
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2007, 11:24:07 AM »

When I consider a year to be anti-incumbent,  I take a look at more than just the results for House/Senate, because that's only part of the story.  You also need to look at State Houses, which can have divergent results.

In 1986, for example, Republicans lost a bunch of Senate seats (and control) and slid in the House of Reps, but gained in the statehouses.  Voters are more complex than they're oft given credit for being.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2007, 01:54:27 PM »

When I consider a year to be anti-incumbent,  I take a look at more than just the results for House/Senate, because that's only part of the story.  You also need to look at State Houses, which can have divergent results.

In 1986, for example, Republicans lost a bunch of Senate seats (and control) and slid in the House of Reps, but gained in the statehouses.  Voters are more complex than they're oft given credit for being.

The reason Republicans gained statehouses in 1986 was because there were a lot of open Democratic seats in places like Oklahoma, Alabama, Arizona, and South Carolina that were increasingly becomming more Republican.  I think only two Democratic incumbents(Tony Earl in WI and Bill White in Texas) were defeated. 
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2007, 04:43:55 PM »

The reason Republicans gained statehouses in 1986 was because there were a lot of open Democratic seats in places like Oklahoma, Alabama, Arizona, and South Carolina that were increasingly becomming more Republican.  I think only two Democratic incumbents(Tony Earl in WI and Bill White in Texas) were defeated. 

An anti-incumbent mood can be just as much "anti-incumbent party" as it is "anti-incumbent."
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2007, 06:33:21 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2007, 06:36:29 PM by brittain33 »


An anti-incumbent mood can be just as much "anti-incumbent party" as it is "anti-incumbent."

That defines away the term to uselessness, then. Note that in 2002 the Republicans lost a bunch of important governorships to Democrats but no one would characterize that election as anything but good for Republicans. It's simply the way long-term cycles played out in a few states.

What would you predict for 2008? A cycle where nearly all Democratic incumbents are safe but NY-21 and CO-2 fall to the Republicans alongside TX-22 and PA-10?
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2007, 07:27:25 PM »

When I consider a year to be anti-incumbent,  I take a look at more than just the results for House/Senate, because that's only part of the story.  You also need to look at State Houses, which can have divergent results.

In 1986, for example, Republicans lost a bunch of Senate seats (and control) and slid in the House of Reps, but gained in the statehouses.  Voters are more complex than they're oft given credit for being.

Some voters have dichotomous tendencies. They'll support one party for federal office and the other side for state office -- for example, just look at  Vermont and Oklahoma

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