ME-Senate: Collins leads Allen by 20

[Brittain33]

That's not exactly "a tier above."  And with poll numbers like this, Allen is going to have trouble just trying to hold Collins at a 3:2 advantage.

You're misreading my words. I was also using "tier" in the sense of qualifications as in that senate-ranking thread of a month ago, where a sitting Congressman representing half the state is a tier above a state senator who represents something like 2%. Pingree is the equivalent of Jeff Merkley, another candidate who is going to have a tough fight to unseat an incumbent.

As for funding, the DSCC will have tons of money to throw into this race that the NRSC won't be able to match, so Allen has a good shot of matching or surpassing Collins in spending on this race in 2008, given that the Democrats are far better poised to dump money here than they were in 2002.

Collins being comfortably above 50% is a bad sign for Allen, no question. However, there are plenty of successful challengers from this decade who were 20 points down or more a year before who went on to win, both unknown (Webb, Tester) and with a record of running in Congress and statewide (Stabenow). I don't think Allen will win, but I don't think that the undecideds are going to go Collins 5:3 over the next 12 months, either. There's not much record of that happening.

Calling an Allen campaign in 2008 on a trajectory for a worse result than Pingree in 2002 is just had to rationalize.

[Brittain33]

Let's fix some revisionist history right off the bat.  Chellie Pingree matched Susan Collins nearly dollar for dollar in fundraising back in 2002.

Crikey, I missed the obvious issue here.

What was Pingree's fundraising and COH compared to Collins by 3Q 2001, to compare apples to apples?

[Conan]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

Hhaah. Idiot...
Test v Burns
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% 51%

Whitehouse v Chafee
Rhode Island College April, 2006 32% 51%
Rasmussen February 11, 2006 38% 50%
Brown University February 8, 2006 34% 40%
Brown University Sept. 13, 2005 25% 38%

Webb v Allen
Rasmussen March 28, 2006 30% 54%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 37% 49%
Rasmussen December 9, 2005 26% 57%

Carden v Steele
Rasmussen November 21, 2005 49% 41%
Baltimore Sun October 25, 2005 47% 38%

Kyl v Pederson
Rasmussen December 26, 2005 50% 30%
Arizona State University October 28, 2005 50% 28%

Ford v Corker
Rasmussen December 20, 2005 42% 36%
Global Strategy Group October 31, 2005 39% 36%

Now maybe you can go and look up the actual results and see what happened in these races. So  before you go and make an ass of yourself, go look some facts up. Any person with half a brain will know Allen won't be losing by 20%.

[MarkWarner08]

And you used to be a political reporter? Completely ridiculous. We all know by election day, Allen will not lose at the same margin as Pingree. Most "political reporters" seem to know that elections tighten up as the election nears.

You should be the political reporter.  We all know by Election Day, Harris had closed the gap against Bill Nelson; Kennedy had closed the gap against Klobuchar; and Ricketts had closed the gap against Ben Nelson.  Whoops, I already posted about that tonight.

If you want to insult someone, try not to say something so stupid silly.

Hhaah. Idiot...
Test v Burns
Mason Dixon December 24, 2005 35% 49%
Rasmussen September 8, 2005 38% 51%

Whitehouse v Chafee
Rhode Island College April, 2006 32% 51%
Rasmussen February 11, 2006 38% 50%
Brown University February 8, 2006 34% 40%
Brown University Sept. 13, 2005 25% 38%

Webb v Allen
Rasmussen March 28, 2006 30% 54%
Rasmussen February 14, 2006 37% 49%
Rasmussen December 9, 2005 26% 57%

Carden v Steele
Rasmussen November 21, 2005 49% 41%
Baltimore Sun October 25, 2005 47% 38%

Kyl v Pederson
Rasmussen December 26, 2005 50% 30%
Arizona State University October 28, 2005 50% 28%

Ford v Corker
Rasmussen December 20, 2005 42% 36%
Global Strategy Group October 31, 2005 39% 36%

Now maybe you can go and look up the actual results and see what happened in these races. So  before you go and make an ass of yourself, go look some facts up. Any person with half a brain will know Allen won't be losing by 20%.

Conan,  while I agree with your point, I 'd like to point out that HRC just said he was being sarcastic.

Anyone else find it amusing HardRCafe has the same initials as Hillary Rodham Clinton?