The Hill: Cochran (R-MS) Mulling Retirement
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  The Hill: Cochran (R-MS) Mulling Retirement
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Author Topic: The Hill: Cochran (R-MS) Mulling Retirement  (Read 2317 times)
TheresNoMoney
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« on: October 31, 2007, 10:17:01 AM »

Jim Herring, chairman of the Mississippi Republican Party, said the party has not lined up potential GOP successors to Cochran because he expects Cochran to run for reelection.

But two sources in Washington, who are close to Cochran and declined to be named, say the senator may be leaning towards retirement because he has grown weary of the ongoing partisan battles on Capitol Hill.

Cochran would not say what is factoring into his decision-making and whether he is leaning towards retirement.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/approps-members-scramble-as-cochran-mulls-retirement-2007-10-31.html

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2007, 10:28:44 AM »

Jim Herring, chairman of the Mississippi Republican Party, said the party has not lined up potential GOP successors to Cochran because he expects Cochran to run for reelection.

But two sources in Washington, who are close to Cochran and declined to be named, say the senator may be leaning towards retirement because he has grown weary of the ongoing partisan battles on Capitol Hill.

Cochran would not say what is factoring into his decision-making and whether he is leaning towards retirement.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/approps-members-scramble-as-cochran-mulls-retirement-2007-10-31.html

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?


He would definitely make it a close race and an open seat race here would further weaken the limited financial resources of the NRSC.  If Cochran does retire, then likely Republican candidates could be Congressmen Roger Wicker or Chip Pickering (who is retiring to spend more time with his family) or possibly Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2007, 10:43:27 AM »


Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?


Myself, I'm less concerned with whether he could win than whether he'd be the kind of senator who would switch to the Republicans the next time they're in a George W. Bush-style southern-based ascendancy.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2007, 11:09:56 AM »

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?

Harry would say "yes," but the correct answer, of course, is "no."
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2007, 11:14:46 AM »

Safe democrat pick up.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2007, 11:23:56 AM »

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?

Harry would say "yes," but the correct answer, of course, is "no."

Well, I'll be more diplomatic and say that it would be difficult, even with the best Democratic candidate.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2007, 11:25:21 AM »

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?

Harry would say "yes," but the correct answer, of course, is "no."

Well, I'll be more diplomatic and say that it would be difficult, even with the best Democratic candidate.

Indeed.  I do think it would be in single digits, but like MA-05 for Republicans, there's no way a Democrat can throw himself over the 50% line for a federal race there, no matter who he is.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2007, 11:28:24 AM »

Would Mike Moore be able to win here in a presidential year?

Harry would say "yes," but the correct answer, of course, is "no."

Well, I'll be more diplomatic and say that it would be difficult, even with the best Democratic candidate.

Indeed.  I do think it would be in single digits, but like MA-05 for Republicans, there's no way a Democrat can throw himself over the 50% line for a federal race there, no matter who he is.

In both places, it can happen.  If the environment was more Republican-friendly, say it was in 1993, Ogonowski could well have won the special election. 

But I suspect the Democrat (or Republican in MA-05) would need to be an incumbent and a very skilled one at that to win in a general election.

It would be in single digits, I do agree (esp. in Mississippi), unless the Democratic candidate is not strong.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2007, 01:23:35 PM »

i hope he doesnt retire.  he is one of my favorite senators.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2007, 02:17:23 PM »

i hope he doesnt retire.  he is one of my favorite senators.

That said, there is really only one Democrat who could pick up the seat.  If Gene Taylor ran, he would have a good shot, especially if Giuliani is the GOP nominee, and Christian Conservatives stay home.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2007, 10:39:01 AM »

i hope he doesnt retire.  he is one of my favorite senators.

That said, there is really only one Democrat who could pick up the seat.  If Gene Taylor ran, he would have a good shot, especially if Giuliani is the GOP nominee, and Christian Conservatives stay home.

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore is the most likely Democratic candidate in an open-
seat race.  Moore actually ran against Taylor in the 1989 race for the open seat House race. 
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2007, 11:38:21 AM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2007, 09:05:20 PM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?

Don't think Taylor would run but if he did and won, he'd be a good senator. Though it's difficult to conceive MS-04 not flipping, no matter how safe it is for him. Taylor would deviate from the party whip significantly, however, but in all fairness you couldn't expect him not to. Strikes me as being a man of deep integrity and not some shyster who'd switch parties if elected. Wish there were more Democrats, like Taylor, from the South in Congress, as opposed to Republicans (hell, just about all Republicans, since I'm talking South here)

Cochran's fine for a Southern Republican. There's a lot worse. Probably still too conservative for my tastes though

Dave
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2007, 09:14:02 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2007, 09:16:07 PM by WalterMitty »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?


Dave

because they are democrats.  and we are talking about mississippi.

even a conservative democrat would have a very tough time winning an open seat for the senate in miss.  (refer to tennessee 2006 for further details)
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2007, 09:43:19 PM »

As competitive, maybe, as Oklahoma 2004 wound up being.

Which is to say, in hindsight, not very.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2007, 10:04:01 PM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?


Dave

because they are democrats.  and we are talking about mississippi.

even a conservative democrat would have a very tough time winning an open seat for the senate in miss.  (refer to tennessee 2006 for further details)

Ford's not as conservative as Taylor and race wouldn't be a factor. Yes, that thing which carries all too much saliency in politics. African-Americans would support Taylor, as the Democrat, while MS-04 is c.75% white, according to wiki, and Taylor, I imagine, would do very well there

Taylor appears to have earned some spurs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. And if "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" had spoken to me the way he spoke to Taylor, it would have taken my usual calm, dignified self all my inner strength not to have my very own Cynthia McKinney moment there and then. Brown was just a federal employee. Taylor, on the other hand, is the elected Representative of MS-04 and it is to those voters to which he is politically accountable. He's been a solid representative and would make a solid senator, you can be sure of it, given the opportunity but I don't think he'd run

Surprising as it may seem, the Republicans don't have some divine right to hold every Southern office going, whether in Mississippi or anywhere else. There seem to be many Democrats who'd be happy to write-off the South, this "one" would not be one of them Wink

Dave
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2007, 10:25:22 AM »

Cochran is one of the GOP's Senators alongside John Warner, Kay Bailey Hutchison, George Voinovich and Kit Bond.  Its a pity that they all seem to be on the way out. 
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2007, 11:39:48 AM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?


Dave

because they are democrats.  and we are talking about mississippi.

even a conservative democrat would have a very tough time winning an open seat for the senate in miss.  (refer to tennessee 2006 for further details)

Ford's not as conservative as Taylor and race wouldn't be a factor. Yes, that thing which carries all too much saliency in politics. African-Americans would support Taylor, as the Democrat, while MS-04 is c.75% white, according to wiki, and Taylor, I imagine, would do very well there

Taylor appears to have earned some spurs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. And if "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" had spoken to me the way he spoke to Taylor, it would have taken my usual calm, dignified self all my inner strength not to have my very own Cynthia McKinney moment there and then. Brown was just a federal employee. Taylor, on the other hand, is the elected Representative of MS-04 and it is to those voters to which he is politically accountable. He's been a solid representative and would make a solid senator, you can be sure of it, given the opportunity but I don't think he'd run

Surprising as it may seem, the Republicans don't have some divine right to hold every Southern office going, whether in Mississippi or anywhere else. There seem to be many Democrats who'd be happy to write-off the South, this "one" would not be one of them Wink

Dave

if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2007, 02:41:32 PM »


if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)

Gene Taylor may well be the most conservative House Democrat of them all but he's more of a social conservative. He's not economically conservative, though, undoubtedly, to the right of most Democrats, so no he shouldn't be a Republican at all. He's a Blue Dog Democrat Smiley

Seemingly, I'd have been more socially conservative than Taylor, in 2006, though more economically liberal (not as liberal as most Democrats however)

I'd be a populist Democrat with a strong hawkish streak for which I make no apologies Wink even if the Democratic Party has tested my loyalities from time to time

Dave
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2007, 04:27:02 PM »


if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)

Gene Taylor may well be the most conservative House Democrat of them all but he's more of a social conservative. He's not economically conservative, though, undoubtedly, to the right of most Democrats, so no he shouldn't be a Republican at all. He's a Blue Dog Democrat Smiley

Seemingly, I'd have been more socially conservative than Taylor, in 2006, though more economically liberal (not as liberal as most Democrats however)

I'd be a populist Democrat with a strong hawkish streak for which I make no apologies Wink even if the Democratic Party has tested my loyalities from time to time

Dave

Taylor is more conservative than a good number of the Republicans in the house. This is Mississippi however.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2007, 06:28:28 PM »


if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)

Gene Taylor may well be the most conservative House Democrat of them all but he's more of a social conservative. He's not economically conservative, though, undoubtedly, to the right of most Democrats, so no he shouldn't be a Republican at all. He's a Blue Dog Democrat Smiley

Seemingly, I'd have been more socially conservative than Taylor, in 2006, though more economically liberal (not as liberal as most Democrats however)

I'd be a populist Democrat with a strong hawkish streak for which I make no apologies Wink even if the Democratic Party has tested my loyalities from time to time

Dave

Taylor is more conservative than a good number of the Republicans in the house. This is Mississippi however.

He'll be likely more economically liberal, though moderate best describes Taylor, than the vast majority of Republicans, especially from the South, which is an improvement in my book

Dave
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Rococo4
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2007, 06:44:22 PM »

I guess a Democrat like Taylor or Moore could win, but it would have to be the perfect storm as far as electoral conditions (2006 like) and the Republican would have to make multiple George Allen like mistakes.

So probably not....

But if Cochran is to retire, it works out best for the GOP it happens in a presidential election year
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2007, 07:33:12 PM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?


Dave

because they are democrats.  and we are talking about mississippi.

even a conservative democrat would have a very tough time winning an open seat for the senate in miss.  (refer to tennessee 2006 for further details)

Ford's not as conservative as Taylor and race wouldn't be a factor. Yes, that thing which carries all too much saliency in politics. African-Americans would support Taylor, as the Democrat, while MS-04 is c.75% white, according to wiki, and Taylor, I imagine, would do very well there

Taylor appears to have earned some spurs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. And if "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" had spoken to me the way he spoke to Taylor, it would have taken my usual calm, dignified self all my inner strength not to have my very own Cynthia McKinney moment there and then. Brown was just a federal employee. Taylor, on the other hand, is the elected Representative of MS-04 and it is to those voters to which he is politically accountable. He's been a solid representative and would make a solid senator, you can be sure of it, given the opportunity but I don't think he'd run

Surprising as it may seem, the Republicans don't have some divine right to hold every Southern office going, whether in Mississippi or anywhere else. There seem to be many Democrats who'd be happy to write-off the South, this "one" would not be one of them Wink

Dave

if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)

Ford was the most liberal member of TN's delegation, so by this logic, TN should have an all Republican delegation except for Ford's replacement Cohen.
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2007, 09:42:20 PM »


Ford was the most liberal member of TN's delegation, so by this logic, TN should have an all Republican delegation except for Ford's replacement Cohen.

Shudders Sad. Tennessee's House Republicans are all rightwing whackadoos. You'd like Jimmy Duncan, seemingly the more moderate, overall, for opposing the war in Iraq, however. I wouldn't though, economically putrid

On the other hand, Democracratic Reps Lincoln Davis, Jim Cooper, Bart Gordon and John Tanner are, collectively, all moderate- to-centrist Democrats

Dave
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2007, 10:13:47 PM »

no democrat is going to make it competitive.

What makes you so sure former AG Mike Moore or Rep. Gene Taylor wouldn't make it competitive if Cochran retired?


Dave

because they are democrats.  and we are talking about mississippi.

even a conservative democrat would have a very tough time winning an open seat for the senate in miss.  (refer to tennessee 2006 for further details)

Ford's not as conservative as Taylor and race wouldn't be a factor. Yes, that thing which carries all too much saliency in politics. African-Americans would support Taylor, as the Democrat, while MS-04 is c.75% white, according to wiki, and Taylor, I imagine, would do very well there

Taylor appears to have earned some spurs in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. And if "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job" had spoken to me the way he spoke to Taylor, it would have taken my usual calm, dignified self all my inner strength not to have my very own Cynthia McKinney moment there and then. Brown was just a federal employee. Taylor, on the other hand, is the elected Representative of MS-04 and it is to those voters to which he is politically accountable. He's been a solid representative and would make a solid senator, you can be sure of it, given the opportunity but I don't think he'd run

Surprising as it may seem, the Republicans don't have some divine right to hold every Southern office going, whether in Mississippi or anywhere else. There seem to be many Democrats who'd be happy to write-off the South, this "one" would not be one of them Wink

Dave

if taylor is more conservative than ford jr.  then he really should be (r-ms)

Ford was the most liberal member of TN's delegation, so by this logic, TN should have an all Republican delegation except for Ford's replacement Cohen.

lynch is the most conservative member of the massachusetts delegation

what is your point?

you are handing out 'tallest person in a room full of midgets' awards?
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