1996-Clinton/Gore v. Specter/McCain

[Senator Ben]

The Tickets are:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore
Arlen Specter/John McCain
Ross Perot/Pat Choate


Clinton/Gore: 46% PV, 300 EV
Specter/McCain: 44% PV, 238 EV
Perot/Choate: 10% PV, 0 EV

[GPORTER]

The Tickets are:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore
Arlen Specter/John McCain
Ross Perot/Pat Choate


Clinton/Gore: 46% PV, 300 EV
Specter/McCain: 44% PV, 238 EV
Perot/Choate: 10% PV, 0 EV

If Pennsylvania goes republican, than Florida and Missouri goes with it. But, other than that, it looks good.

[Senator Ben]

The Tickets are:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore
Arlen Specter/John McCain
Ross Perot/Pat Choate


Clinton/Gore: 46% PV, 300 EV
Specter/McCain: 44% PV, 238 EV
Perot/Choate: 10% PV, 0 EV

If Pennsylvania goes republican, than Florida and Missouri goes with it. But, other than that, it looks good.

My line of thinking is that Pennsylvania only goes Republican because of Specter, and that it is the closest state in the election.

[GPORTER]

The Tickets are:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore
Arlen Specter/John McCain
Ross Perot/Pat Choate


Clinton/Gore: 46% PV, 300 EV
Specter/McCain: 44% PV, 238 EV
Perot/Choate: 10% PV, 0 EV

If Pennsylvania goes republican, than Florida and Missouri goes with it. But, other than that, it looks good.

My line of thinking is that Pennsylvania only goes Republican because of Specter, and that it is the closest state in the election.

Yeah, but still, as has been pointed out to me with Romney and his chances of carrying Massachusetts. The home state factor is not everything. Specter could loose his homestate, though I am not saying that he would, but the popularity of the Clinton's and the liberal voters might have swung Pennsylvania narrowly to Clinton. But, in this scenario, no matter which way Pennsylvania goes, I would give Missouri and Florida to Specter, and if you gave him those two and kept Pennsylvania in his column. Then he would be the president.

[Senator Ben]

The Tickets are:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore
Arlen Specter/John McCain
Ross Perot/Pat Choate


Clinton/Gore: 46% PV, 300 EV
Specter/McCain: 44% PV, 238 EV
Perot/Choate: 10% PV, 0 EV

If Pennsylvania goes republican, than Florida and Missouri goes with it. But, other than that, it looks good.

My line of thinking is that Pennsylvania only goes Republican because of Specter, and that it is the closest state in the election.

Yeah, but still, as has been pointed out to me with Romney and his chances of carrying Massachusetts. The home state factor is not everything. Specter could loose his homestate, though I am not saying that he would, but the popularity of the Clinton's and the liberal voters might have swung Pennsylvania narrowly to Clinton. But, in this scenario, no matter which way Pennsylvania goes, I would give Missouri and Florida to Specter, and if you gave him those two and kept Pennsylvania in his column. Then he would be the president.

I find it quite amusing that you and I are having this discussion, given our disagreement on another thread over George HW Bush.  Also, as I said, Pennsylvania is the closest state.  Specter is quite liberal, so I would not expect him to gain a lot of Clinton voters in Florida and Missouri.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Bill Clinton/Al Gore (D): 309 EV, 47.5%
Arlen Specter/John McCain (R): 209 EV, 46.9%
H. Ross Perot/Pat Choate (I): 0 EV, 5.4%
Others (Socialist, Prohabition): 0 EV, 0.2%

I reckon with Arlen Specter at the helm, the Republican ticket would be able to carry New England states such as Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. I reckon if the 1996 Election was between Specter and Clinton, it would have been closer, however Clinton would go on to win a 2nd term in the White House.

[gorkay]

I don't see any reason to think Specter would have made it any closer than Dole did, and it's far from a foregone conclusion that he would have carried Pennsylvania.

[Senator Ben]

I don't see any reason to think Specter would have made it any closer than Dole did, and it's far from a foregone conclusion that he would have carried Pennsylvania.

Specter would have done a much better job in bringing in moderate and liberal Independents that Dole did.

[gorkay]

But I think Clinton had those voters in the bag no matter what.

[Secretary Polnut]

There are a lot of variants in this scenario.

1. That Perot doesn't hurt the Republicans by taking 5-9% in close states like MO, FL, OH, KY WI etc etc - and those who leave Perot have to go to Specter in order for him to win.

2. McCain negates Clinton's strength in the SW by taking AZ, NV and NM

Having said all that - I don't believe the map would change that much.

This is how I'd see it play out - including toss-ups.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Clinton might make the deep south (very) competitive.  he didn't lose it that badly to Dole, and Specter wouldn't do well in those areas.  I can't see the whole northern pro-choice Jew being so hot in SC, MS, AL, etc.

[PBrunsel]

Bill Clinton/Al Gore (D): 371 EV; 45.1%
Arlen Specter/John McCain (R): 138 EV; 38.1%
Pat Buchanan/Alan Keyes (I): 29 EV; 12.6% of the PV
Ross Perot/Pat Choate (REF): 0 EV; 4.2% of the PV

Buchanan saps enough votes from Specter to cost him in the South and West.

[WalterMitty]

specter would hae done worse than dole.

you could flip va, nc, ga and mt to clinton....and possibly tx and ms