1980 without Anderson

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I understand this is faulty logic, but this is 1980 if you give all of Anderson's support to Carter:

Reagan wins the electoral vote 352-186, and wins the popular vote 50.75-47.62.  Even though not every single Anderson voter would have gone to Carter, it's interesting to look at how different the race might have been.

[Nym90]

The final Gallup poll before the election showed Reagan 3 points ahead of Carter, so the above map was probably about what most were expecting.

[auburntiger]

I understand this is faulty logic, but this is 1980 if you give all of Anderson's support to Carter:

Reagan wins the electoral vote 352-186, and wins the popular vote 50.75-47.62.  Even though not every single Anderson voter would have gone to Carter, it's interesting to look at how different the race might have been.

I doubt Connecticut would have switched to Carter, since it did not vote for him in 1976. Maine would have probably split its EV's. Vermont, however, would have been plausible as it started trending Dem in the 80's

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anderson was the last gasp of the Rockefeller Republicans.  His support came mostly from liberal Republicans who didn't want to vote for either a Democrat or for Reagan.  As the conservatives took control of the national GOP they largely became co-opted into being Democrats for national politics.  Hardly original thinking here, but it is the explanation for why Anderson did so poorly.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I understand this is faulty logic, but this is 1980 if you give all of Anderson's support to Carter:

Reagan wins the electoral vote 352-186, and wins the popular vote 50.75-47.62.  Even though not every single Anderson voter would have gone to Carter, it's interesting to look at how different the race might have been.

I doubt Connecticut would have switched to Carter, since it did not vote for him in 1976. Maine would have probably split its EV's. Vermont, however, would have been plausible as it started trending Dem in the 80's

I agree, all I did here was give all of Anderson's support to Carter, so whenever Carter lost by less than Anderson got, the state swung to Carter.  I mean, I doubt Carter was going to win Mississippi either, but in this map he does.

[CPT MikeyMike]

More than likely, it would be something like this.

Reagan: 420
Carter: 118

Not all of Anderson's support goes to Carter. Reagan holds the New England states due to Yankee Republicans who would be more for Anderson than Carter. The Southern states of Tennessee and Arkansas are simply anti-Carter and anti-Reagan votes and the swing to Carter is plausible. Despite the closeness in NC, SC, AL and MS, Carter would need more than 95% of Anderson's votes to go to him to win those states and I do not think that would happen.

[J. J.]

I generally use this formula for 3rd party candidate effects.

Half don't vote, 80% go to the candidate with the similar ideology; 20% go to the candidate with the more distant ideology.

Anderson 1000  Carter: 4,500,  Reagan:   4,500  Total votes: 10,000

No Anderson

500 stay home.

+400 votes Carter

+100 votes Reagan

New total:

Carter:  4,900   Reagan:  4,600  Total Votes:  9,500

It's a good rule of thumb.