Australian Election Prediction Contest
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: November 05, 2007, 08:35:23 AM »

Predict the following:

a) number of seats for the ALP, number of seats for the Coalition, number of seats for Indies/Other parties.

b) the seat with the biggest majority

c) the seat with the smallest majority

d) list all the seats you think will change hands

e) predict the two-party vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong
ii) Wentworth
iii) Braddon
iv) Solomon
v) Leichhardt
vi) Melbourne Ports

Predictions can be changed up until... um... the day before the election. Might extend that. Don't know.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2007, 02:27:37 PM »

a) I'll come back to
b) Melbourne in terms of ALP over coalition, after preferences; Batman first preference.
c) Swan; a tiny coalition victory
d) I'll come back to
e) i) 51.9-48.1 Coalition; ii) i'll come back to, when everything has sort of settled down a bit iii) 52.8-47.2 ALP; iv) 54.6-45.4 ALP; v) 52.0-48.0 Coalition; vi) 57.1-52.9 ALP
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2007, 04:11:23 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2007, 09:15:00 AM by Got Ireland? »

I admit having a nerdish interest in this so I'm in.

a) Roughly, ALP 91 Coalition 57 Ind 2

b) Batman, VIC for Labour - O'Conner, WA for Coalition

c) Tough one, I'll go out on a limb and North Sydney to the ALP by about 0.1

d) I'll do this one later.

Okay I'll try now:
Coalition Gains: Calare, Swan
Labour Gains (+32): Bass, Braddon, Kingston, Makin, Wakefield, Parramatta, Hasluck, Solomon, Lindsay, Wentworth, Eden-Monero, Deakin, Page, Gippsland, La Trobe, Bennelong, Bonner, Moreton, Herbert, Flynn, Sturt, McEwen, Moreton, Ryan, Stirling, Grey, Leichhardt, Cowper, Dobell, McMillian, Corangamite, Blair

That is 91-57-2. But giving the polls 100+ would not surprise me, therefore these will also go (Here are a couple others):

Ryan, Boothby, Longman, MacArthur, Higgins (!!!), Kooyong, Robertson, Patterson, North Sydney, Dickson, Kalgoorlie, Petrie, Hinkler, Dawson

e) i) Bennelong: ALP 51 LIB 49
    ii) Wentworth: ALP 53 LIB 47
    iii) Braddon: ALP 51 LIB 49
    iv) Solomon ALP 55 CLP 45
    v) Leichhardt: no clue.. out on a labour leaning limb again.. ALP 51 LIB 49.. though apparently the nationals have a strong candidate too.
   vi) Melbourne Ports ALP 59 LIB 41
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2007, 06:23:32 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2007, 02:27:24 AM by Fmr Gov. Polnut »

This is undoubtedly be changed but as of now.

1) Labor - 82  Coalition - 66  Ind - 2

2) Grayndler NSW (ALP) 74 - 26 TPP

3) Solomon NT (ALP) 50.1 - 49.9

4) Not sure about a list yet

5) predict the two-party vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong ALP 51.3 - 48.7
ii) Wentworth ALP 50.2 - 49.8
iii) Braddon ALP 52.4 - 47.6
iv) Solomon ALP 50.1 - 49.9
v) Leichhardt LIB 51.8 - 48.3
vi) Melbourne Ports LAB 55 - 45
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2007, 01:47:26 AM »

1) ALP 79 seats - Libs/Nats 69 seats - Independents 2 seats

2) Batman VIC (ALP) 71 - 29 TPP (My electorate too)

3) Corangamite VIC (LIB) By about 0.2%

4) According to my predictions using the ABC's Election Calculator these are the seats that'll change hands.

  • McMillan (VIC) LIB to ALP
  • Deakin (VIC) LIB to ALP
  • Dobell (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Bennelong (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Page (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Eden-Monaro (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Moreton (QLD) LIB to ALP
  • Solomon (NT) LIB to ALP
  • Bass (TAS) LIB to ALP
  • Wentworth (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Stirling (WA) LIB to ALP
  • Hasluck (WA) LIB to ALP
  • Lindsay (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Braddon (TAS) LIB to ALP
  • Parramatta (NSW) LIB to ALP
  • Wakefield (SA) LIB to ALP
  • Bonner (QLD) LIB to ALP
  • Kingston (SA) LIB to ALP
  • Makin (SA) LIB to ALP

5) Predict the TPP vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong ALP 52-48%
ii) Wentworth ALP 51-49%
iii) Braddon ALP 53-47%
iv) Solomon ALP 50-50%
v) Liechhardt LIB 54-46%
vi) Melbourne Ports ALP 55-45%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2007, 08:56:53 AM »

I think the online calculators are misleading.

In every swing above 4% Bennelong and Wentworth automatically go over to Labor.

I believe that quite a few 5-7% margin LP will fall before either of those two seats go.
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Platypus
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« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2007, 01:49:28 AM »

a) I'll come back to
b) Melbourne in terms of ALP over coalition, after preferences; Batman first preference.
c) Swan; a tiny coalition victory
d) I'll come back to
e) i) 51.9-48.1 Coalition; ii) i'll come back to, when everything has sort of settled down a bit iii) 52.8-47.2 ALP; iv) 54.6-45.4 ALP; v) 52.0-48.0 Coalition; vi) 57.1-52.9 ALP

A) ALP 81, Coalition 67, Independent 2
c) change to Patterson, a slight coalition victory-I suspect a very big swing against the coalition in this particular seat.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #7 on: November 19, 2007, 11:46:05 AM »

This thing is throwing me for a loop - the size of the swings in individual seats is throwing everything off.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #8 on: November 22, 2007, 02:07:14 AM »


1. ALP 83  LPN 65 I2


2.Bateman 74-26 ALP

3. Wentworth 50.1-49.9 Lib(I see this as Australia's version of  Heather Wilson or Jim Gerlach, a seat that should fall, but the strength of the incumbent, weakness of the challenger, and general desire to host the next leader, will lead to much safer seats falling first)

4. Leichardt, Isaacs, Kingston Parametta, Braddon, Bennelong, Deaken, Dobell, Eden-Moro, Soloman, Lindsay, Hasluck, Cowan, Ryan, Bass, Bonner, Cowper, Flynn, Wakefield, McMillin, a few surprises. Swan to lib

5.

i) Bennelong 51-49 Lab
ii) Wentworth 50-50 Lib
iii) Braddon    53-47 Lab
iv) Solomon   51-49 Lab
v) Leichhardt 51-49 lab
vi) Melbourne Ports  56-44 lab
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2007, 10:50:22 AM »

Predict the following:

a) number of seats for the ALP, number of seats for the Coalition, number of seats for Indies/Other parties:

ALP 82 seats / Coalition 66 / Independents 2

b) the seat with the biggest majority: Grayndler (ALP, NSW) 75.5% - 24.5%

c) the seat with the smallest majority: Bowman (Lib, QLD) 50.05% - 49.95%

d) list all the seats you think will change hands

ALP gain. Robertson, Cowper, Paterson, Dobell, Bennelong, Page, Eden-Monaro, Wentworth, Lindsay, Paramatta (NSW); Longman, Herbert, Blair, Moreton, Bonner (QLD); Sturt, Boothby, Wakefield, Kingston, Makin (SA); Bass, Braddon (TAS); Solomon (NT)

Lib gain: Calare (NSW); Swan (WA)

e) predict the two-party vote in the following, semi-randomly selected, divisions:

i) Bennelong: ALP 51.7% / Lib 48.3%
ii) Wentworth: ALP 53.5% / Lib 46.5%
iii) Braddon: ALP 52.1% / Lib 47.9%
iv) Solomon: ALP 51.4% / Lib 48.6%
v) Leichhardt: Lib 52.3% / ALP 47.7%
vi) Melbourne Ports: ALP 55.8% / Lib 44.2%

Dave
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2007, 09:49:53 AM »

Will likely do this tonight, if I have the time. Can't right now... uhm, I'm in class you know and using a swingometre would make me seem like a nerd
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 23, 2007, 07:09:04 PM »

closed. thanks for entries.
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