GOP Finds Candidate in OH-15

[Adlai Stevenson]

Ohio State Senator and Iraq war vet Steve Stivers told the Columbus Dispatch he would run for the Republican nomination to replace retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-O) in 2008.

Stivers, who has until now resisted pressure from House Minority Leader John Boehner, explained his decision to reporters saying, “I've decided to run for Congress because I think we really need change in Washington…There is way too much bickering and not enough working together to get things done. “ He will likely face Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy, who lost to Pryce by a mere percentage point in 2006.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/11/05/gop_finds_candidate_in_oh15.html

[Joe Republic]

You can tell how much coercion was applied to the poor guy:

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This gporter-style inanity makes it seem like he doesn't even care.

[minionofmidas]

Now I'm confused ... is he running as a Republican or as an Independent?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I don't know much about Ohio politics, so fill me in if you will.  Considering the woman he's vying to replace is a Republican, is this a Republican-safe district? or is it a swing district that could easily go Democratic, other variables aside?  If it is a swing district, what are his chances?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I don't know much about Ohio politics, so fill me in if you will.  Considering the woman he's vying to replace is a Republican, is this a Republican-safe district? or is it a swing district that could easily go Democratic, other variables aside?  If it is a swing district, what are his chances?

OH-15 voted 50%-49% for Bush in 2004, after going for him by 52%-44% in 2000, so in that sense it appears to be trending Democratic; most people would expect the Democratic Presidential nominee to carry it in the general election next year.  Stivers would in all likelihood end up facing Mary Jo Kilroy, who also lost 50%-49% to Deborah Pryce last year.  Most people think that Pryce was an adept incumbent who represented her District as well, and even she barely held on in 2006.  I would say that the consensus is that OH-15 is the closest thing
towards an open seat that the Democrats will be favoured to win in 2008. 

[Padfoot]

Here's the link to the Dispatch story.  Its about time they finally found a candidate.  Kilroy has been fundraising her butt off and is expected to have around half a million cash on hand by January.

I don't know much about Ohio politics, so fill me in if you will.  Considering the woman he's vying to replace is a Republican, is this a Republican-safe district? or is it a swing district that could easily go Democratic, other variables aside?  If it is a swing district, what are his chances?

OH-15 is my district so I know a bit about its politics.  Its definitely a swing district.  With the exception of 2006 Pryce normally won by a comfortable margin due in part to her moderate positions on several issues.  She is also a champion of children's issues which made her even more popular.

The swinginess of the district comes from the combination of Democratic voting Columbus precincts and the conservative voting Union and Madison counties.  OH-15 also encompasses most of the western suburbs of Columbus.

Kilroy, the Democrat, has a leg up because she is popular in the more populous Franklin County portion of the district and she has district-wide name recognition after being narrowly defeated for the seat in 2006.  In order for Stivers to win he'll have to be within 5 points of Kilroy in Franklin County.  If he can do that he should be able to rely on the 25-30 point advantage the GOP usually  has in Union and Madison counties to win.  However, being within 5 points of Kilroy in Franklin County is probably going to be near impossible especially during a presidential year.

[minionofmidas]

What exactly are children's issues?

[bullmoose88]

I don't know much about Ohio politics, so fill me in if you will.  Considering the woman he's vying to replace is a Republican, is this a Republican-safe district? or is it a swing district that could easily go Democratic, other variables aside?  If it is a swing district, what are his chances?

OH-15 voted 50%-49% for Bush in 2004, after going for him by 52%-44% in 2000, so in that sense it appears to be trending Democratic; most people would expect the Democratic Presidential nominee to carry it in the general election next year.   

Not that I disagree, but I seem to remember one of the reasons Ohio trended Democrat in 2004 was because of an economic downturn in the state (dunno/don't remember if it was attributable to Bush in some way).  I don't know if the condition has improved to such an extent which would ameilorate that D trend enough for an R win, but I'm just not quite sure that there's a D-trend sufficient enough to take the district or if we saw some sort of economic based R-backlash in 04 (due to the poor economy in Bush's first term) that now may not exist (or exist as strongly).

[minionofmidas]

The Columbus area is traditionally Republican and has been swinging to the left pretty clearly for a while now. Much like Indianapolis one state to the left, actually.

[Smash255]

The Columbus area is traditionally Republican and has been swinging to the left pretty clearly for a while now. Much like Indianapolis one state to the left, actually.

Franklin County took a  11 point trend between 2000 and 2004 and a 5 point trend between 1996 & 2000

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Columbus area is traditionally Republican and has been swinging to the left pretty clearly for a while now. Much like Indianapolis one state to the left, actually.

I wouldn't say the Indianapolis area is swinging to the left, Indianapolis proper maybe, but most certainly not the area (having driven through some of those exurban counties, I'm not surprised)

[Smash255]

The Columbus area is traditionally Republican and has been swinging to the left pretty clearly for a while now. Much like Indianapolis one state to the left, actually.

I wouldn't say the Indianapolis area is swinging to the left, Indianapolis proper maybe, but most certainly not the area (having driven through some of those exurban counties, I'm not surprised)

Maybe not some of the exurbs, but some of the inner suburbs of Marion County have swung towards the left.

[Padfoot]

What exactly are children's issues?

She was usually one of the driving forces behind legislation relating to the welfare of children.  (i.e. child pornography laws, education, children's healthcare, ect.).

Not that I disagree, but I seem to remember one of the reasons Ohio trended Democrat in 2004 was because of an economic downturn in the state (dunno/don't remember if it was attributable to Bush in some way).  I don't know if the condition has improved to such an extent which would ameilorate that D trend enough for an R win, but I'm just not quite sure that there's a D-trend sufficient enough to take the district or if we saw some sort of economic based R-backlash in 04 (due to the poor economy in Bush's first term) that now may not exist (or exist as strongly).

Ohio is still bleeding manufacturing jobs like the rest of the Rust Belt so the economic conditions really haven't improved that much.  Thus any economic related D-trend is likely to continue.  In fact, the 2006 Senate and Gubernatorial election results are in part a testament to its continuation.  However, the Columbus area wasn't hit as hard as the rest of the state because it has a different and more diversified economy so I don't think you can argue that the economy is the driving force behind the D-trend in Central Ohio.

Since Columbus is the state capital there are always tons of government and government related jobs.  Also, the Columbus area is home to a large number of colleges and universities.  So it is no surprise that the State of Ohio, Ohio State University, and the US Government are the three largest employers in Central Ohio with 46,000 employees between them.  There are also lots of jobs provided by other local governments and educational institutes giving Columbus a nice safety cushion.  Columbus is dominated by insurance companies and restaurant chains in the private sector with a few manufacturing, chemical, and technological related jobs as well.  Essentially what has been a manufacturing related economic crisis for the State of Ohio has been a minor downturn for Columbus.  So I don't think that the economy is a major factor when considering a Democratic trend in the Columbus area. 

I think that demographics and a generally moderate voters have contributed more towards the Democratic shift in the Columbus area.  Columbus is a pretty diverse place and it continues to become more diverse as the city is currently a popular home for first generation Somali and Latino immigrants.  Columbus is also fairly gay friendly, especially in comparison to other major cities in Ohio.  As the GOP has continued to march steadily to the right Columbus has moved to the middle so Democrats have been able to capitalize on that by staying closer to the middle as well.

So to sum up, OH-15 will likely be voting for the Democratic candidate in both the actual House race and in the presidential race.  And this result will likely have more to do with demographic trends and a moderate voting history rather than economic issues.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Columbus area is traditionally Republican and has been swinging to the left pretty clearly for a while now. Much like Indianapolis one state to the left, actually.

I wouldn't say the Indianapolis area is swinging to the left, Indianapolis proper maybe, but most certainly not the area (having driven through some of those exurban counties, I'm not surprised)

Maybe not some of the exurbs, but some of the inner suburbs of Marion County have swung towards the left.

The inner suburbs in Marion County are insignificant. Indianapolis takes up well over 90% of the county's population.