France General Discussion

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Sarkozy fails. Francois Fillon for President.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy fails. Francois Fillon for President.

François Fillon president...

?!?

Yes, maybe, in a "paralleeel univeeerse..." (to quote this song of the Red Hot Chili Peppers who sometimes back to my mind...)

But, clearly, I also would have preferred François Fillon for president, far.

Following the current day by day French policy, it would have been less shameful for France.

Less shameful because with him, we at least would have someone who has the sense of responsibilities, at least he seems to.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy fails.

We have to wait to know if he fails or not for managing the country, what is sure it is what I always said, he badly psychologically lead this country, and this one is fragile.

After "les élections municipales" (the municipal elections), changes will occur and some could be big. Maybe he is doing all his managing errors until now and he might will learn from them.

I think Attali's report is his only chance for good managing the country, let's see how he will deal with.

But, if all of this does not happen, for sure, he will fail, more and more, and more he will fail, more he will try to take decisions to make some shock, such as the last ones, and the country will drive from bad to bad.

Personally, no matter he succeed or not in the managing, I still think that he has no vision for the future, that he is unstable, that he doesn't wonder, that he thinks he is a great man thinking he always has great ideas, that he is an ideologist who is not aware of some psychological realities (as all bad ideologists). Well, I still think he will badly psychologically make explode France and maybe further...

France has been charmed by him, now she pays the bill of its non-vigilance.

Wanna cry concerning French politics?

Here's a video from a "politician" woman who concurred for deputy for the last legislatives (2007), she has been endorsed and not denied by UMP (Sarkozy's party, biggest of France). She comes from a French TV show (called "Sans aucun doute") which pretend to rule all problems of poor and despaired peoples who come to the show. Compared to Philippe de Villiers (French far-right), he is a nice sweet guy.

I think that this woman is just a caricature of the future of politics around the world. But here we are in France, and I think that it is a man like Sarkozy who opened the door to such "politicians" in our country...

Beware! It' scary!

For non-French speakers, non-understanding what is said might not be a problem to understand how this way is a dangerous way for politics.

Sure you wanna watch?

OK, let's go...

There is a second part here.

[Hash]

Sarkozy fails.

We have to wait to know if he fails or not for managing the country, what is sure it is what I always said, he badly psychologically lead this country, and this one is fragile.

After "les élections municipales" (the municipal elections), changes will occur and some could be big. Maybe he is doing all his managing errors until now and he might will learn from them.

I think Attali's report is his only chance for good managing the country, let's see how he will deal with.

But, if all of this does not happen, for sure, he will fail, more and more, and more he will fail, more he will try to take decisions to make some shock, such as the last ones, and the country will drive from bad to bad.

Personally, no matter he succeed or not in the managing, I still think that he has no vision for the future, that he is unstable, that he doesn't wonder, that he thinks he is a great man thinking he always has great ideas, that he is an ideologist who is not aware of some psychological realities (as all bad ideologists). Well, I still think he will badly psychologically make explode France and maybe further...

France has been charmed by him, now she pays the bill of its non-vigilance.

Wanna cry concerning French politics?

Here's a video from a "politician" woman who concurred for deputy for the last legislatives (2007), she has been endorsed and not denied by UMP (Sarkozy's party, biggest of France). She comes from a French TV show (called "Sans aucun doute") which pretend to rule all problems of poor and despaired peoples who come to the show. Compared to Philippe de Villiers (French far-right), he is a nice sweet guy.

I think that this woman is just a caricature of the future of politics around the world. But here we are in France, and I think that it is a man like Sarkozy who opened the door to such "politicians" in our country...

Beware! It' scary!

For non-French speakers, non-understanding what is said might not be a problem to understand how this way is a dangerous way for politics.

Sure you wanna watch?

OK, let's go...

There is a second part here.

Don't deform what I said. I support most of Sarkozy's policies, but I dislike his presidential "style" and his bling bling Presidency.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy fails.

We have to wait to know if he fails or not for managing the country, what is sure it is what I always said, he badly psychologically lead this country, and this one is fragile.

After "les élections municipales" (the municipal elections), changes will occur and some could be big. Maybe he is doing all his managing errors until now and he might will learn from them.

I think Attali's report is his only chance for good managing the country, let's see how he will deal with.

But, if all of this does not happen, for sure, he will fail, more and more, and more he will fail, more he will try to take decisions to make some shock, such as the last ones, and the country will drive from bad to bad.

Personally, no matter he succeed or not in the managing, I still think that he has no vision for the future, that he is unstable, that he doesn't wonder, that he thinks he is a great man thinking he always has great ideas, that he is an ideologist who is not aware of some psychological realities (as all bad ideologists). Well, I still think he will badly psychologically make explode France and maybe further...

France has been charmed by him, now she pays the bill of its non-vigilance.

Wanna cry concerning French politics?

Here's a video from a "politician" woman who concurred for deputy for the last legislatives (2007), she has been endorsed and not denied by UMP (Sarkozy's party, biggest of France). She comes from a French TV show (called "Sans aucun doute") which pretend to rule all problems of poor and despaired peoples who come to the show. Compared to Philippe de Villiers (French far-right), he is a nice sweet guy.

I think that this woman is just a caricature of the future of politics around the world. But here we are in France, and I think that it is a man like Sarkozy who opened the door to such "politicians" in our country...

Beware! It' scary!

For non-French speakers, non-understanding what is said might not be a problem to understand how this way is a dangerous way for politics.

Sure you wanna watch?

OK, let's go...

There is a second part here.

Don't deform what I said. I support most of Sarkozy's policies, but I dislike his presidential "style" and his bling bling Presidency.

Oh well, OK, I did not want to deform what you said but I maintain my post.

[Hash]

For those into favourable ratings:

IFOP, Feb 24 compared to IFOP, Jan 20

Sarkozy
Unfavorable 38% (-9)

Fillon
Favorable 57% (+7)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I've been polled by IFOP yesterday. That's something funny:

It begins by politics, then questions on pencil marks, then on chain saw, and then back on politics...

Concerning the fact that Sarkozy is hardly down for about one month:

Now he's really unpopular, he has nothing to lose, and I think we haven't finish to see him taking poor ways...

Last one:

He said he was ready to go personaly to Colombia's border to pick Ingrid Betancourt...

What did France elected?

A president of a country?
An actor?
A super-hero?

I think he wants to be all of this at the time and he succeed to be nothing of this...

[Hash]

I've been polled by IFOP yesterday. That's something funny:

It begins by politics, then questions on pencil marks, then on chain saw, and then back on politics...

Concerning the fact that Sarkozy is hardly down for about one month:

Now he's really unpopular, he has nothing to lose, and I think we haven't finish to see him taking poor ways...

Last one:

He said he was ready to go personaly to Colombia's border to pick Ingrid Betancourt...

What did France elected?

A president of a country?
An actor?
A super-hero?

I think he wants to be all of this at the time and he succeed to be nothing of this...

CSA had him down to 35% or something IIRC, but CSA is bullcrap.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

[Hash]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

[Hash]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

Doing runoff polls for local elections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille is a sign that they suck. Any pollster doing such polls deserve to be shot.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

Doing runoff polls for local elections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille is a sign that they suck. Any pollster doing such polls deserve to be shot.

Well, please forgive my stupidity, but, why shouldn't they do runoff polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille?

I know the lists are in mess with MoDem, but peoples vote for a name, don't they?

Otherwise, I would like you to tell me why you say it?

Then, are they alone to do runoff polls for these cities?!?

I know, I should get more interest to polls, these are our future way to express the choice of the people more than the personal vote of the "dying citizen status". I think we less and less go to "The citizens" and more and more to "The people". With personal choices dying and becoming mass choices. Romans had a word to design it, they called it "vox populi" (translation: "voice of the people")...

I really take care to vote but as I consider that polls become more and more important than the vote, I also really take care to answer when I'm polled. Until now I've been 4 times, 2 by national poll institutes and 2 by local things.

[Hash]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

Doing runoff polls for local elections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille is a sign that they suck. Any pollster doing such polls deserve to be shot.

Well, please forgive my stupidity, but, why shouldn't they do runoff polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille?

I know the lists are in mess with MoDem, but peoples vote for a name, don't they?

Otherwise, I would like you to tell me why you say it?

Then, are they alone to do runoff polls for these cities?!?

Because of the PLM law. The way local elections are in those cities, citywide raw vote totals are useless (about as useless as "nationwide" polls CSA did once in the local elections). What counts in PLM is the vote by arrondissement/secteur; to win you need to have a majority of sectors (Paris has 20, Lyon 9, Marseille . In 1983, Gaston Defferre actually lost the raw votes but won a majority of sectors. The same thing could happen again now in Marseille, considering the race is up in the air. Therefore, citywide raw votes aren't of much use. Some sources don't even report citywide vote totals.

TNS-Sofres also did one runoff poll for Marseille a short while ago and some other pollster named OpinionWay did too. Better pollsters like IFOP or Ipsos don't waste their time on such polls.

CSA also did a nationwide poll for the locals; which confirms that they suck.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

Doing runoff polls for local elections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille is a sign that they suck. Any pollster doing such polls deserve to be shot.

Well, please forgive my stupidity, but, why shouldn't they do runoff polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille?

I know the lists are in mess with MoDem, but peoples vote for a name, don't they?

Otherwise, I would like you to tell me why you say it?

Then, are they alone to do runoff polls for these cities?!?

Because of the PLM law. The way local elections are in those cities, citywide raw vote totals are useless (about as useless as "nationwide" polls CSA did once in the local elections). What counts in PLM is the vote by arrondissement/secteur; to win you need to have a majority of sectors (Paris has 20, Lyon 9, Marseille . In 1983, Gaston Defferre actually lost the raw votes but won a majority of sectors. The same thing could happen again now in Marseille, considering the race is up in the air. Therefore, citywide raw votes aren't of much use. Some sources don't even report citywide vote totals.

TNS-Sofres also did one runoff poll for Marseille a short while ago and some other pollster named OpinionWay did too. Better pollsters like IFOP or Ipsos don't waste their time on such polls.

CSA also did a nationwide poll for the locals; which confirms that they suck.

Concerning the fact that these cities have several sectors that's an interesting aspect I didn't take in count. But, my way can still work, peoples can decide to vote for the mayor of their sector which supports the big mayor of the city they want, surely the most important one of both, don't they?

Concerning your last sentence, I totally agree, nationwide polls for locals are to me totally stupid too.

[Hash]

CSA is bullcrap.

Why?

Lol, seriously, look at their tracking record.

Last poll before the first round, 2007

Sarkozy 26.5
Royal 25.5
Le Pen 16.5
Bayrou 16
Others 15.5
Runoff tied 50-50

And they also do runoff polls in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille. Haha.

Sure, what you say doesn't play for them, maybe poor bad shots, personally, I don't follow enough polls to can say it.

Doing runoff polls for local elections in Paris, Lyon, and Marseille is a sign that they suck. Any pollster doing such polls deserve to be shot.

Well, please forgive my stupidity, but, why shouldn't they do runoff polls for Paris, Lyon and Marseille?

I know the lists are in mess with MoDem, but peoples vote for a name, don't they?

Otherwise, I would like you to tell me why you say it?

Then, are they alone to do runoff polls for these cities?!?

Because of the PLM law. The way local elections are in those cities, citywide raw vote totals are useless (about as useless as "nationwide" polls CSA did once in the local elections). What counts in PLM is the vote by arrondissement/secteur; to win you need to have a majority of sectors (Paris has 20, Lyon 9, Marseille . In 1983, Gaston Defferre actually lost the raw votes but won a majority of sectors. The same thing could happen again now in Marseille, considering the race is up in the air. Therefore, citywide raw votes aren't of much use. Some sources don't even report citywide vote totals.

TNS-Sofres also did one runoff poll for Marseille a short while ago and some other pollster named OpinionWay did too. Better pollsters like IFOP or Ipsos don't waste their time on such polls.

CSA also did a nationwide poll for the locals; which confirms that they suck.

Concerning the fact that these cities have several sectors that's an interesting aspect I didn't take in count. But, my way can still work, peoples can decide to vote for the mayor of their sector which supports the big mayor of the city they want, surely the most important one of both, don't they?

Concerning your last sentence, I totally agree, nationwide polls for locals are to me totally stupid too.

Of course they can, and that's maybe what a lot of voters that don't understand the complex local election-PLM law do. People don't directly vote for the mayor either, they vote for a party list led by a particular person (which becomes mayor if his list wins); the mayor is elected by councillors after the election. So, this party list can include politicians of different views (especially among the UMP, which included centrists, conservatives, centre-leftists [aka Gauche Moderne], liberals, Christian democrats, nationalists etc.); but I assume most people don't know much about that.

However, my point stands, and I hope you agree, city-wide runoff polling in PLM is ridiculous and a waste of money.

Don't forget that the runoff depends on the sector. For example, in southern Marseille (solid UMP) the runoffs are mostly UMP-PS; while in Marseille-8 and some other Marseille sectors (the Communist sector) the FN/MNR do well (and before 2007, extremely well) and made the runoff UMP-PS-FN. The same thing could happen again and changes the race there a lot. The FN was not in a runoff in Paris in 2001 (and 1995 IIRC) and was in the runoff in Lyon in 2001; and with the Lyon FN now a joke, they won't be in any runoff.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, the points you describe me, I have to acknowledge I have a weak knowledge in the working of locals for cities with sectors, seems to be accurate and to effectively make that it's not really accurate to make runoff polls for these cities. My way just work if most of peoples who vote in these cities don't know this working, as i didn't.

You remember the video I've put in this topic? I said that to me it is a serious risk for the future of politics. Well, if ever you or someone else can currently watch French political debates, I advise you to look for example how Rachida Dati (Minister of Justice) debates, to me it goes clearly in the bad sens of the politics I worry about.

Then, concerning the first local results, left continues on stupid debates trying to affirm that was a national election and that first results were a big defeat for UMP (PS 47% UMP 45%). Hey, please politicians! Words have a sens! I you politicians don't show the example, who will do it?

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I love how the left spins this into a `pink wave`and a rout for the right a la 1977. Idiots.

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Jean Arthuis, Senator and President of Mayenne, has left the MoDem. They're left with one department (Morbihan). I wonder how many weeks they'll keep that one.

[Math]

I love how the left spins this into a `pink wave`and a rout for the right a la 1977. Idiots.

What is idiot is your reaction. Try to remember what is the job of a spin.

[Hash]

Ah yes, Francois Bayrou has called a press conference tomorrow at 16:00hrs for a "important announcement".

Maybe he'll create a new party?

[Hash]

Ah yes, Francois Bayrou has called a press conference tomorrow at 16:00hrs for a "important announcement".

Maybe he'll create a new party?

Nothing special, just complaining about Sarkozy and the right; and saying he'll talk to members about party strategy.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

François Bayrou...

He has some good will, good values, but he is losing his-self, in poor things. It's not your epoch Francky! Franky Baba, that's the way I nickname him.

In this way I have also John Franky Coco for Jean-François Copé, Seeg Roy for Ségolène Royal, Nico Sark is Nicolas Sarkozy and maybe others I don't remember now... Hmm, yes, as sing Ramstein: "We're all living in Americaaa, America, Americaaa...".

To continue on French politics, I think Nicolas Sarkozy as found his future adversary in the person of Jean-François Copé, to me, his future opponent for the French Right. Speaking about him, JFC, I have to say that he is a better and better speaker, he was wonderful in debates of post-municipals.

I'm curious to know if that's him who asked or not for being chief of deputies at the National Assembly. It's seems that's his strategy is taking the right deputies making it a strong force, in the way to make problems to Sarkozy and to impose him as a new chief. Well on a more or less long term. Sarkozy who said that he wanted to give deputies more force in his constitutional reforms. He may didn't expect it could play against him...

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Anybody is better than Patrick Devedjian for the UMP. I hate him.

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Oh and.

Aime Cesaire, former PPM mayor of Fort-de-France and great poet has died.

http://www.lemonde.fr/carnet/article/2008/04/17/le-poete-aime-cesaire-est-mort_1035299_3382.html

RIP, he was a great man.