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MaxQue
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« Reply #250 on: March 22, 2009, 08:20:01 PM »

There has been talk in Bretagne against Le Guen, with some proposing the candidacy of the former prefect Bernadette Malgorn (which BRTD would probably hate very, very, very much). But the local UMP has united behind Le Guen (a Villepeniste).

By reading on Wikipedia, BRTD would be right to hate this thing, who pretend to be a person.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #251 on: March 23, 2009, 07:01:59 AM »

There has been talk in Bretagne against Le Guen, with some proposing the candidacy of the former prefect Bernadette Malgorn (which BRTD would probably hate very, very, very much). But the local UMP has united behind Le Guen (a Villepeniste).

By reading on Wikipedia, BRTD would be right to hate this thing, who pretend to be a person.

You're right, we can't say anything else that she is really ugly...

What is more, she would lose big against Le Drian.
Le Guen will also lose but, at least, he won't be seen as a "Parisien" dropped there by Sarkozy.

I'm not sure many UMP members are aware to vote for a Villepiniste. They are "légitimistes" and so they vote for the only candidate available. And they don't want to see an outsider like Bernadette.
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« Reply #252 on: March 23, 2009, 07:10:23 AM »

We don't have a thread for the regionals, but the UMP held its primary today. The results are available on the party website.

Turnout in brackets.


Basse Normandie [57.04%]: Lambert 54.59%, , Améline 45.41%

Bourgogne [46.50%]: Suguenot 57.50%, Anciaux 42.50%

Centre [45.81%]: Novelli 72.60%, Lepeltier 27.40%

Ile-de-France [48.08%]: Pécresse 59.87%, Karoutchi 40.13%

Languedoc Roussillon [53.25%]: Couderc 35.43%, Castex 32.95%, Jeanjean 21.54%, Rivenq 10.08%

Midi-Pyrénées [45.50%]: Barèges 54.63%, Trémège 45.37%

Nord-Pas-de-Calais [36.92%]: Lazaro 77.55%, Pick 22.45%

Rhône-Alpes [32.65%]: Grossetête 46.92%, Carle 28.28%, Blanc 24.81%

Aquitaine: Darcos unopposed

Bretagne: Le Guen unopposed

Champagne-Ardenne: Warsmann unopposed

Franche-Comté: Joyandet unopposed

Haute Normandie: Le Maire unopposed

Limousin: Archer unopposed

Lorraine: Hénart unopposed

Pays de la Loire: Bachelot unopposed

Picardie: Cayeux unopposed

Poitou-Charentes: De Richemont unopposed


No results available for Auvergne, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or the overseas regions.

Auvergne and PACA are "postponed" in September.

In fact, it was to wait to be sure Hortefeux (Auvergne, and Work and Social Minister) is still alive after big mottos of this spring...
And to wait for any candidate other than Hubert Falco (Toulon's mayor and secrétaire d'Etat in Fillon's government), whom Sarkozy is trying to convince to fight against the socialist Vauzelle.
Falco would be the best candidate for the UMP in PACA: he is really very well elected in Var department. He is moderate. He has a southern pronounciation...

But it will be very difficult.

The UMP may regain Champagne, maybe Lorraine and Franche-Comté.
Even in Basse-Normandie (Lambert is very uninspiring) and Pays-de-la-Loire, normally 2 rightist regions, the UMP is not sure at all to win.

Even if I've said some weaknesses of Valérie Pécresse, I'm very glad for her.
She is smart and she is smart...

Valérie 2017 !
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« Reply #253 on: March 23, 2009, 03:03:11 PM »

There has been talk in Bretagne against Le Guen, with some proposing the candidacy of the former prefect Bernadette Malgorn (which BRTD would probably hate very, very, very much). But the local UMP has united behind Le Guen (a Villepeniste).

By reading on Wikipedia, BRTD would be right to hate this thing, who pretend to be a person.

You're right, we can't say anything else that she is really ugly...

What is more, she would lose big against Le Drian.
Le Guen will also lose but, at least, he won't be seen as a "Parisien" dropped there by Sarkozy.

I'm not sure many UMP members are aware to vote for a Villepiniste. They are "légitimistes" and so they vote for the only candidate available. And they don't want to see an outsider like Bernadette.

Malgorn would be destroyed if she ran for anything since she's massively unpopular and she's not a traditional politician. She's an administrator. She has never run in an election, and has never needed too. She's never held elected office (I think.).

While I'm personally not hot on having a Villepeniste as candidate, I think a Villepeniste UMP candidate in Bretagne works better and has more electoral potential than a Sarkozyste UMP candidate.


Auvergne and PACA are "postponed" in September.

In fact, it was to wait to be sure Hortefeux (Auvergne, and Work and Social Minister) is still alive after big mottos of this spring...
And to wait for any candidate other than Hubert Falco (Toulon's mayor and secrétaire d'Etat in Fillon's government), whom Sarkozy is trying to convince to fight against the socialist Vauzelle.
Falco would be the best candidate for the UMP in PACA: he is really very well elected in Var department. He is moderate. He has a southern pronounciation...

But it will be very difficult.

The UMP may regain Champagne, maybe Lorraine and Franche-Comté.
Even in Basse-Normandie (Lambert is very uninspiring) and Pays-de-la-Loire, normally 2 rightist regions, the UMP is not sure at all to win.

Even if I've said some weaknesses of Valérie Pécresse, I'm very glad for her.
She is smart and she is smart...

Valérie 2017 !

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« Reply #254 on: March 23, 2009, 03:06:37 PM »

There has been talk in Bretagne against Le Guen, with some proposing the candidacy of the former prefect Bernadette Malgorn (which BRTD would probably hate very, very, very much). But the local UMP has united behind Le Guen (a Villepeniste).

By reading on Wikipedia, BRTD would be right to hate this thing, who pretend to be a person.

You're right, we can't say anything else that she is really ugly...

What is more, she would lose big against Le Drian.
Le Guen will also lose but, at least, he won't be seen as a "Parisien" dropped there by Sarkozy.

I'm not sure many UMP members are aware to vote for a Villepiniste. They are "légitimistes" and so they vote for the only candidate available. And they don't want to see an outsider like Bernadette.

Malgorn would be destroyed if she ran for anything since she's massively unpopular and she's not a traditional politician. She's an administrator. She has never run in an election, and has never needed too. She's never held elected office (I think.).

While I'm personally not hot on having a Villepeniste as candidate, I think a Villepeniste UMP candidate in Bretagne works better and has more electoral potential than a Sarkozyste UMP candidate.


Auvergne and PACA are "postponed" in September.

In fact, it was to wait to be sure Hortefeux (Auvergne, and Work and Social Minister) is still alive after big mottos of this spring...
And to wait for any candidate other than Hubert Falco (Toulon's mayor and secrétaire d'Etat in Fillon's government), whom Sarkozy is trying to convince to fight against the socialist Vauzelle.
Falco would be the best candidate for the UMP in PACA: he is really very well elected in Var department. He is moderate. He has a southern pronounciation...

But it will be very difficult.

The UMP may regain Champagne, maybe Lorraine and Franche-Comté.
Even in Basse-Normandie (Lambert is very uninspiring) and Pays-de-la-Loire, normally 2 rightist regions, the UMP is not sure at all to win.

Even if I've said some weaknesses of Valérie Pécresse, I'm very glad for her.
She is smart and she is smart...

Valérie 2017 !

On the plus side, it would be very hard for the UMP to go lower than in 2004, so there's basically only potential to go up. Up how much depends on a lot of factors, but as it stands now it's not looking like it will go up exponentially.

Lambert is an awful candidate. He's a dirty scumbag. Look at his recent carpetbagging from a urban marginal canton to a rural safe canton in the Orne. Roselyne Bachelot isn't that great either. I'm far from convinced that being a cabinet minister helps you here.
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« Reply #255 on: March 24, 2009, 03:09:57 AM »
« Edited: March 24, 2009, 11:22:28 AM by big bad fab »

- You're right on Bachelot.

- As for a villepiniste or a sarkozyste UMP in Brittany, I'm not sure voters would be aware of this difference... to say the least !!

For a long time, I was a supporter of a big party of the right in France:
UDF (er, no... let's write UDFs), RPR,
but not extreme right (of course !), or even hard right (MPF).

But in fact, French voters don't like this and our 2-rounds electoral systems mean that it's more efficient to have 2 parties to gather more voters in the 1st round.

And Brittany is the best evidence of this: the UMP alone can't represent all the right, especially the centre right and many voters prefer the MoDem, despite its sectarian side, or even the moderate socialists (former "social catholics" or "deuxième gauche" around Rocard and Le Pensec).

- The most surprising result in these primary results is that Novelli trounced Lepeltier, who is a better politician, with efficient local networks and with a moderate image which can be good in hard times for the right. And Novelli is a real "libéral" in the French meaning, i.e. a free-trade, free-market, small-governement "fondie".

And, now, if the PS worried a bit for the Centre region, it is now completely at ease...
Novelli will be trounced by any socialist candidate (most probably Michel Sapin, a moderate former Rocard supporter, now Hollande supporter, with a Teddy Bear image).
Even Lambert is a better choice thant Novelli...
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« Reply #256 on: March 24, 2009, 03:23:03 PM »

- As for a villepiniste or a sarkozyste UMP in Brittany, I'm not sure voters would be aware of this difference... to say the least !!

You're right. I'm overestimating how much voters actually know about the role of these candidates in party factions.

And Brittany is the best evidence of this: the UMP alone can't represent all the right, especially the centre right and many voters prefer the MoDem, despite its sectarian side, or even the moderate socialists (former "social catholics" or "deuxième gauche" around Rocard and Le Pensec).

Breton MoDem voters and Breton lefties are historically close, since many came from the JAC (Christian Agricultural Youth) in the past. MoDem voters in Bretagne also break quite largely for the left.

- The most surprising result in these primary results is that Novelli trounced Lepeltier, who is a better politician, with efficient local networks and with a moderate image which can be good in hard times for the right. And Novelli is a real "libéral" in the French meaning, i.e. a free-trade, free-market, small-governement "fondie".

And, now, if the PS worried a bit for the Centre region, it is now completely at ease...
Novelli will be trounced by any socialist candidate (most probably Michel Sapin, a moderate former Rocard supporter, now Hollande supporter, with a Teddy Bear image).
Even Lambert is a better choice thant Novelli...

Thank you!
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« Reply #257 on: March 25, 2009, 02:51:52 PM »
« Edited: March 25, 2009, 07:01:58 PM by Benedict »

The ambiance in France nowadays:



The slogan say something like: "Piss off bloody jerk" and is directed toward to Sarkozy. That's what Sarkozy said to a guy about one year ago, what has been filmed while he wasn't aware about it. The video is famous in France.

The "Parti de Gauche" made a sticker of it and it seems it has been massively spread during the last big protest.

Not that I assume that slogan, I don't like that kind of vulgarity, but I tend to think it well sums up the ambiance in the country.

If we continue with bad economical news, if Sarkozy doesn't come back from G20 with good news, and if Besancenot knows how to benefit of that context, well, things could drive serious.
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« Reply #258 on: March 30, 2009, 11:38:03 AM »

A poll which is not very fresh, I heard last Thursday, but which is interesting, it's from BVA poll institute:

Question: Who do you trust to lead you in this time of crisis?

Answers:

Sarkozy 38%
Besancenot 35%

For the record, Besancenot is an actual hard-lefty.
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« Reply #259 on: March 30, 2009, 04:10:42 PM »

For the record, Besancenot is an actual hard-lefty.

A Trot.
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« Reply #260 on: March 30, 2009, 11:49:31 PM »

Montebourg has released the first part of his report on how to reform the PS. His main points include the establishment of American-style open primaries (also used in Greece and Italy) and starting the preparation of the presidential race four years before the election.

In other words, hold the presidential primary right now while Royal is still politically relevant (as Royal suggested immediately after her defeat), and let the MoDem militants vote while you're are it.

Although it would be nice if France had a much simpler partisan registration system.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #261 on: April 01, 2009, 04:48:00 AM »

Montebourg has released the first part of his report on how to reform the PS. His main points include the establishment of American-style open primaries (also used in Greece and Italy) and starting the preparation of the presidential race four years before the election.

In other words, hold the presidential primary right now while Royal is still politically relevant (as Royal suggested immediately after her defeat), and let the MoDem militants vote while you're are it.
Be careful, Montebourg doesn't support Royal any longer. In fact, I think he supports mainly himself...
So, an open primary (i.e. where any French voter can vote, provided they give a few euros) isn't a way to guarantee that Royal is chosen.

In fact, many hard-leftists would also vote, not only MoDem voters and, I think, far more, than MoDem voters.
Because really motivated MoDem voters aren't very numerous; because centre-right voters who still vote for Bayrou won't bother to pay to vote for Royal or DSK rather than for Aubry.
And center-loft voters of MoDem aren't enough to compensate for PG, PCF, MRC, NPA, LO, Bovéists, Greens, etc activists who will not vote for Royal.

It may seem weird but Royal would be more at ease with a closed primary.
Remember she made 50% last autumn, with 75-80% of the establishment against her (Paris and Ile-de-France, Nord, Pas-de-Calais, Seine-Maritime, Gironde, Brittany,...).

Although it would be nice if France had a much simpler partisan registration system.

I don't understand ?
You are French and 18 years old, you can vote.
You a re just required to be registered in your city, by bringing one single evidence of your residence.
Not very complicated....

And inside political parties, you vote when you are a member. Quite simple and clear.
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« Reply #262 on: April 02, 2009, 06:57:32 PM »

An interesting (though predictable) study by IFOP for the Catholic newspaper La Croix concerning the political preferences of those unemployed.

In terms of partisan affiliation, compared to those of the employed

PS 25.9% (-1.5%)
UMP 18.7% (-3%)
Greenies 12.7% (+1.3%)
MoDem 9.5% (-2.4%)
FN 9.1% (+1.8%)
Trots 8.9% (+2.3%)
PCF 5% (+1.5%)
MPF 0.6% (-1%)
Others/Indies/Don't give a crap 9.4% (+0.8%)

Sarkozy approval: 32% (-35% since May 2007) - 39% among those employed (-27%)

Political proximity evolutions of those unemployed (these differ from the above stats.)

2009: Far-left 13.6% (+6.3% since 2008) and FN 5.7% (-4.3%). The far-left becomes larger than the FN for the first time since these stats started in 1999. Lowest FN level, and for the first time since 2000, the FN is higher with those employed (6.5%) than the unemployed.

The PS is losing support, with its rating among those unemployed at an all-time low, 21% (-6% since 2008). Among those employed, its rating is 25.6%, down from 28.1% in 2008. Also an all-time low, lower than 1999-2002 when the PS was in government.
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« Reply #263 on: April 09, 2009, 03:26:14 PM »

The National Assembly rejected 21-15 the Hadopi project, which would crack down on illegal downloading on the interwebs. The plan included email warnings first and later cutting your internet connection outright (while still making you pay for your "connection"). The PS managed to get more deputies out there, in addition to Dupont-Aignan and Jean Dionis du Séjour (NC) also voting against.

Great news for democracy!
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« Reply #264 on: April 09, 2009, 10:07:10 PM »

The National Assembly rejected 21-15 the Hadopi project, which would crack down on illegal downloading on the interwebs. The plan included email warnings first and later cutting your internet connection outright (while still making you pay for your "connection"). The PS managed to get more deputies out there, in addition to Dupont-Aignan and Jean Dionis du Séjour (NC) also voting against.

Great news for democracy!

The fact that the bill was rejected is great news, but I wouldn't say that only 36 of 577 MNAs showing up to vote, especially on a bill as hyped as this one, is exactly great news for democracy. This was a fluke. It's worth noting that this is only the fourth time a bill that passed through a joint committee is defeated in the final vote, after 1966, 1973, and 1983.

Copé announced that there would be a re-vote on April 28, and I doubt the UMP leadership will let this happen again. But they can't reintroduce the final version; they will have to vote on the bill as it stood as of the last amendment approved by the National Assembly (which means that those who lose their Internet connection don't need to pay for it).
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« Reply #265 on: April 14, 2009, 07:15:10 AM »

Ipsos ratings

Sarko'

Unfavourable 55% (-3)
Favourable 43% (+6)

Favourables by party: Left 18%, PS 14%, MoDem 39%, UMP 83%

Fillon

Favourable 47% (+3)
Unfavourable 46% (-2)

Favourables by party: Left 25%, PS 23%, MoDem 56%, UMP 82%

Top pols.

1 Rama Yade (UMP) 59/22 (+1)
2 DSK (PS) 59/26 (+11)
3 Tintin from Paris (PS) 59/28 (+3)
4 Kouchner (DVD) 58/32 (+4)
5 Borloo (Radical) 55/29 (+2)
6 Fadela Amara (DVD) 53/20 (+3)
7 Martine Aubry (PS) 52/38 (+6)
8 MAM (UMP) 49/36 (+5)
9 Jack Lang (PS) 47/37 (-1)
10 Bayrou (MoDem) 46/42 (nc)

Others: Besancenot 13th (43/46), Cohn-Bendit 16th (37/33), Drug Addict 20th (32/62), Marine Le Pen 29th (15/77), JMLP 30th (11/85).
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« Reply #266 on: April 14, 2009, 10:17:46 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2009, 12:11:25 PM by Benedict »


When 10 deputies have to hide behind some drapes and to ... TADAM...! Suddenly come from behind them in order to be more than the right deputies, I wonder how much of a great news for democracy it is...

The working of our parliament in general, not only this event, its rules, its place, is a shame for our democracy, and its last lifting is a joke.
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« Reply #267 on: April 14, 2009, 03:15:12 PM »


When 10 deputies have to hide behind some drapes and to ... TADAM...! Suddenly come from behind them in order to be more than the right deputies, I wonder how much of a great news for democracy it is...

The working of our parliament in general, not only this event, its rules, its place, is a shame for our democracy, and its last lifting is a joke.

I was obviously being sarcastic.
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« Reply #268 on: April 14, 2009, 05:53:03 PM »

In homage to Maurice Druon who died today:

Ami entends-tu...

It's not the best version of this song but this one has English lyrics. It's the most famous song of the Résistance. Maurice Druon, through other things, wrote this song with Joseph Kessel.
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« Reply #269 on: April 14, 2009, 06:11:13 PM »

In homage to Maurice Druon who died today:

Ami entends-tu...

It's not the best version of this song but this one has English lyrics. It's the most famous song of the Résistance. Maurice Druon, through other things, wrote this song with Joseph Kessel.

Sad news Sad

Le chant des partisans is the best song in the world.
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« Reply #270 on: April 14, 2009, 07:29:48 PM »

Ipsos ratings

Sarko'

Unfavourable 55% (-3)
Favourable 43% (+6)

Favourables by party: Left 18%, PS 14%, MoDem 39%, UMP 83%

Fillon

Favourable 47% (+3)
Unfavourable 46% (-2)

Favourables by party: Left 25%, PS 23%, MoDem 56%, UMP 82%

Top pols.

1 Rama Yade (UMP) 59/22 (+1)
2 DSK (PS) 59/26 (+11)
3 Tintin from Paris (PS) 59/28 (+3)
4 Kouchner (DVD) 58/32 (+4)
5 Borloo (Radical) 55/29 (+2)
6 Fadela Amara (DVD) 53/20 (+3)
7 Martine Aubry (PS) 52/38 (+6)
8 MAM (UMP) 49/36 (+5)
9 Jack Lang (PS) 47/37 (-1)
10 Bayrou (MoDem) 46/42 (nc)

Others: Besancenot 13th (43/46), Cohn-Bendit 16th (37/33), Drug Addict 20th (32/62), Marine Le Pen 29th (15/77), JMLP 30th (11/85).


Ifop ratings

Sarko'

Disapprove 57% (-1)
Approve 43% (+1)

Fillon

Approve 52% (+2)
Disapprove 48% (-2)

Would the opposition do a better job?

No 67% (nc)
Yes 33% (nc)

According to Le Monde.fr, Chirac is the top-rated politician with 74% favourables (+3). Rama Yade is second with 69% (-2) and Kouchner is tied with her (69%, +2). Delanoë is fourth, 68%.
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« Reply #271 on: April 14, 2009, 07:46:30 PM »

It's easy for Chirac to be seen as a great president now we can see what is Sarkozy as president.

Plus, "c'était mieux avant..." (for translation, in France the sentence is used to express the fact that the situation was always better in the past).
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« Reply #272 on: April 15, 2009, 09:31:23 AM »
« Edited: April 15, 2009, 10:54:32 AM by Benedict »

Marine Le Pen stated on LCI that instead of sequestrating their bosses and their executives, people should sequestrate their deputies.

Cool, thank you Marine, we needed this to improve things. I tend to think that kind of statements from FN are not that significant but well, it's better without, and it goes in current trends of violence.

Plus, in "Les Echos" a poll said that 55% of people think that these sequestrations are "justified". When the preceding poll on the question just said that 45% of people "understood" that sequestrations. The most recent poll is from BVA.
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« Reply #273 on: April 15, 2009, 04:38:27 PM »


Gah.

Anyways, polls are never perfect, especially not these where the pollsters can toy around with the question a lot. People should stop citing them as proof for life on earth.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #274 on: April 15, 2009, 05:01:52 PM »

In homage to Maurice Druon who died today:

Ami entends-tu...

It's not the best version of this song but this one has English lyrics. It's the most famous song of the Résistance. Maurice Druon, through other things, wrote this song with Joseph Kessel.

Sad news Sad

Le chant des partisans is the best song in the world.
I agree !

Poignant, prenant, as we say in French.
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