France General Discussion

[PGSable]

Le Pen has been sentenced to three months in jail for comments he made in 2005 about the Nazi occupation of France.

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He also claimed that the occupation "hadn't been particularly inhuman, even though there were some problems, which was inevitable in a country with an area of 550 000 square kilometers."

[PGSable]

Now that Sarkozy and Fillon have been in office for over a year:


Presidential approval ratings

Mitterrand was elected in May 1981 with 52% of the vote. In June 1981, his approval rating was 74%. One year later, in June 1982, it was 63% (–11%). In May 1988, when Mitterrand ran for re-election, it was 57%.

Mitterrand was re-elected in May 1988 with 54% of the vote. In June 1988, his approval rating was 63%. One year later, in June 1989, it was 62% (–1%). In May 1995, when Mitterrand retired, it was 34%.

Chirac was elected in May 1995 with 53% of the vote. In June 1995, his approval rating was 64%. One year later, in June 1996, it was 47% (–6%). In May 2002, when Chirac ran for re-election, it was 52%.

Chirac was re-elected in May 2002 with 82% of the vote (last polls had him tied with Jospin, who finished 4% behind Chirac in the first round). In June 2002, his approval rating was 50%. One year later, in June 2003, it was 49% (–1%). In May 2007, when Chirac retired it was 30%.

Sarkozy was elected in May 2007 with 53% of the vote. In June 2007, his approval rating was 62%. One year later, in June 2008, it is 38% (–24%).


Prime minister approval ratings

Mitterrand appointed Mauroy in May 1981. In June 1981, his approval rating was 71%. One year later, in June 1982, it was 55% (–16%). In July 1984, when Mauroy resigned, it was 25%.

Mitterrand appointed Fabius in July 1984. In September 1984, his approval rating was 53%. One year later, in September 1985, it was 47% (–6%). In March 1986, when the right took control of the National Assembly, it was 44%.

Mitterrand appointed Chirac in March 1986. In April 1986, his approval rating was 57%. One year later, in April 1987, it was 44% (–13%). In May 1988, when the left took control of the National Assembly, it was 48%.

Mitterrand appointed Rocard in May 1988. In June 1988, his approval rating was 66%. One year later, in June 1989, it was 65% (–1%). In May 1991, when Rocard resigned, it was 50%.

Mitterrand appointed Cresson in May 1991. In June 1991, her approval rating was 49%. Less than a year later, in April 1992, when Cresson resigned, it was 22% (–27%).

Mitterrand appointed Bérégovoy in April 1992. In May 1992, his approval rating was 54%. Less than a year later, in March 1993, when the right took control of the National Assembly, it was 39% (–15%).

Mitterrand appointed Balladur in March 1993. In April 1993, his approval rating was 73%. One year later, in April 1994, it was 53% (–20%). In May 1995, when Balladur resigned, it was 47%.

Chirac appointed Juppé in May 1995. In June 1995, his approval rating was 65%. One year later, in June 1996, it was 38% (–27%). In May 1997, when the left took control of the National Assembly, it was 28%.

Chirac appointed Jospin in June 1997. In July 1997, his approval rating was 66%. One year later, in June 1998, it was 62% (–4%). In May 2002, when Jospin resigned and the right took control of the National Assembly, it was 40%.

Chirac appointed Raffarin in May 2002. In June 2002, his approval rating was 60%. One year later, in June 2003, it was 45% (–15%). In April 2005, when Raffarin resigned, it was 22%.

Chirac appointed Villepin in May 2005. In June 2005, his approval rating was 39%. One year later, in June 2006, it was 17% (–22%). In April 2007, when Villepin resigned, it was 30%.

Sarkozy appointed Fillon in May 2007. In June 2007, his approval rating was 58%. One year later, in June 2007, it is 45% (–13%).




Sarkozy lost twenty-four points in his first year in office, more than twice as much as any other president ever recorded. Fillon, on the other hand, had been successful so far at distancing himself from the unpopular president.

Data are from Homme-Politique. The approval ratings are from TNS-SOFRES (average of various polling institutes).

[PGSable]

It looks like Chirac is going to boycott the Bastille Day celebration in Paris after Sarkozy invited Bashar al-Assad.

Chirac is a very good friend of the Hariri family, and has lived in one of their apartments since leaving office.

[PGSable]

Why hasn't the LCR been able to capitalize on Besancenot's popularity with at least one MNA?

Firstly, the LCR has absolutely no (absolutely none) ground constituency organization and GOTV effort. The LCR has no party machine on the ground. Also, Besancenot is like Le Pen in that he gets votes from voters that don't vote for the party in a general/EU/local election.

Secondly, even if it did break 15% in one constituency (which is very unlikely) and somehow got into the runoff, a plurality/majority of voters would not vote for a Trot. Just as they wouldn't vote for a fascist. And like with the FN, many of the first round voters wouldn't come out and vote for an LCR candidate that has no chance in the runoff.

That, and the far left is much more divided than the far right. If the LCR, the LO, the PT, and the Bové supporters (and maybe the PCF) formed a common party, the anti-capitalist left would be much stronger.

Besancenot, Buffet, Laguiller, Bové, and Schivardi won a combined nine percent of the vote last year, not far behind Le Pen. With Le Pen retiring, you can expect the FN's vote share to lower in 2012. The MoDem isn't very successful either. A common far left party would be a force to be reckoned with.

[PGSable]

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/15/segolene-royal-revoit-sa-strategie-au-sein-du-ps_1095569_823448.html

After polls showed her performing poorly against Bertrand Delanoë, Ségolène Royal has announced that she may drop out of the race to become First Secretary of the PS (the election is on November 6).

[PGSable]

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2008/09/15/segolene-royal-revoit-sa-strategie-au-sein-du-ps_1095569_823448.html

After polls showed her performing poorly against Bertrand Delanoë, Ségolène Royal has announced that she may drop out of the race to become First Secretary of the PS (the election is on November 6).

She may drop out if her motion does poorly. She's not dropping out now.

Of course, I'd be sad if she dropped out. She amuses me.

Of course, she can't drop out right now. She needs to have a discussion with the social partners first (that's participative democracy, you know).

[PGSable]

The deadline for registering a motion is September 23. Ségolène Royal and her allies have agreed on a motion; if Royal does not lead it, Gérard Collomb will. (Interesting...)

Martine Aubry will be leading her own motion; when asked whether she would put her campaign "in the freezer" like Royal asked, she answered, "At a time when we must, to the contrary, give warmth to our people and to the party, I am not sure that the freezer would be the best solution," and that Royal "is simultaneously a non-candidate and a candidate. It doesn't make any sense anymore, or, rather, it makes too much sense." (Royal is definitely correct in saying that it's too early to be campaigning for 2012. Wasn't she the one who wanted the PS to select its 2012 nominee immediately after the election last year?)

Bertrand Delanoë is also leading a motion. He is, of course, the frontrunner. He has the support of François Hollande (Royal claims she would have liked for him to stay above the fray), and Jean-Marc Ayrault has endorsed him as well.

[PGSable]

Pierre Moscovici and François Rebsamen have endorsed Delanoë; Julien Dray backs Royal, and Pierre Mauroy backs Aubry (as well as Fabius, if I understand correctly).

So there are six motions: Royal's (actually led by Collomb), Delanoë's, and Aubry's, as well three minor ones. The only declared candidates for first secretary are Delanoë and Benoît Hamon (a deputy to the European Parliament, who leads one of the minor far-left motions).

[PGSable]

UMP Senate primary results:
Gérard Larcher – 78 votes (51.3%)
Jean-Pierre Raffarin – 56 votes (36.8%)
Philippe Marini – 17 votes (11.2%)
Abstention – 1 (0.7%)

Larcher won on the first round with one vote more than needed for a majority. He will be the next President of the Senate.

[PGSable]

Unemployment in August took a big boost, up 2.2%.

It's at the highest it's been since 1993.

[PGSable]

Rumors are spreading that, because of the recession, Sarkozy will form a new government, including former prime ministers Juppé, Villepin, and Rocard.

[PGSable]

The big story now is the Wolfowitz-eqsue scandal involving IMF President Dominique Strauss-Kahn, PS.

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The Socialists are, for the most part, defending him.

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(The French media typically doesn't report on politicians' sex scandals.)



Ségolène Royal, on the other hand, is clearly trying to eliminate him as a potential rival for 2012.

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The French government is backing DSK. Sarkozy pushed for him to lead the IMF (in part because he was the biggest obstacle to re-election in 2012), and it would be yet another international setback for him if his appointee were forced to resign.

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And, for Arnaud Montebourg, it's crystal clear that the United States, Russia, and Egypt are conspiring against Strauss-Kahn. Let's give him the last word…

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[PGSable]

France currently holds the European Union's six-month rotating presidency, which it is supposed to pass on to the Czech Republic on January 1. However, it seems that Sarkozy is pushing to extend France's presidency for at least another year (rather than pass it on to the Czech Republic, which would then pass it on to Sweden on July 1) due to crises such as the conflict between Russia and Georgia, the Irish referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon, and the recession.

Sarkozy wants to push the Czech Republic and Sweden aside because he believes that the presidency should be held by a member of the Eurozone, and he has also pointed out that the Czech president and prime minister are eurosceptics.

At the very least, Sarkozy wants France to remain president over economic affairs, as is customary when a non-Eurozone member holds the general presidency (Belgium in lieu of Sweden in 2001, and Greece in lieu of Denmark in 2002). I don't recall this happening with Britain in 2005 or Slovenia in 2008. In any event, Belgium came after Sweden, and Greece came after Denmark, so shouldn't the presidency go directly to Spain?

Sarkozy has proposed a dual French-British leadership of the EU's council of financial ministers because of London's role as the financial capital of Europe. It seems that he wants to push aside Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's prime minister and minister of finance.

As of Wednesday, Merkel had not commented. Obviously, she is not expected to approve.

http://www.lemonde.fr/archives/article/2008/10/22/nicolas-sarkozy-veut-diriger-la-zone-euro-jusqu-en-2010_1109655_0.html

[PGSable]

Eurostat announced yesterday that the Eurozone was in a recession for the first time in its history; its GDP declined by 0.2% during the third trimester. On the other hand, Christine Lagarde and François Fillon announced that France was technically not in a recession, because its GDP had increased by 0.14% during the third trimester (it fell by 0.5% in both the UK and Germany). Fillon did warn that a recession was likely for 2009.

[PGSable]

Patrick Devedjian will resign as general secretary of the UMP and as MNA to serve as minister for the economic recovery. Brice Hortefeux appears to be the favorite to replace him as general secretary.

[PGSable]

Yade, who was under consideration to replace Jouyet as secretary of state for European affairs, turned down Sarkozy's requests that she run in the upcoming EU elections. The Elysée says that "she doesn't have any political sense."

Today, on International Human Rights Day, Kouchner said that it was a mistake for him to ask for the creation of the office of secretary of state for human rights:

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Yade's answer:

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For what it's worth, Copé defends Yade:

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[PGSable]

The NPA is just a temporary name, and we should know the new name by Saturday!

The delegates voted 316-270 to keep the name NPA rather than adopt the name PAR (Revolutionary Anticapitalist Party).

[PGSable]

Not exactly related to French politics, but still interesting...

Singer-songwriter Charles Aznavour has accepted to serve as Armenian ambassador to Switzerland. Aznavour was born in France in 1924 to Armenian parents. He strongly identified with Armenia, and obtained Armenian citizenship two months ago.

[PGSable]

BTW, GREAT NEWS!

The MoI gnomes have decided to keep the departmental number on the new license plates!

The owner will be free to choose the departmental number he wishes, though. The freedom haters wanted to remove the numbers from license plates.

35!

Great news!

Though it seems that the departmental number won't be a part of the license plate number; it will be shown separately on the right with the regional flag/logo (like the F and the EU logo on the left).

Final map of the regional logos:



Apparently there was some resistance to putting the gwenn ha du on the Breton licence plates.

[PGSable]

Overall, a pretty horrible map (especially the Poitou-Aquitaine, Val de Loire, and Alsace-Lorraine regions). The only good that could come from this would be a very interesting regional election between Ségolène Royal, François Bayrou, and Philippe de Villiers (hmm... could the Poitou-Aquitaine region be a swipe at Royal?), but, if I understand it correctly, there wouldn't be any regional elections. (The regional council would instead be made up of all the general council members of the region.)

Concerning Bretagne, I note there would be 2 big cities Rennes and Nantes, which one to lead?

Nantes, I would hope. Note that the rivalry between Nantes and Rennes was the reason for creation the Pays de la Loire region in the first place.

It will also be interesting to see what the capitals of Normandie (another region that was divided because of a rivalry between its two major cities) and Alsace-Lorraine would be.

Regional legislatures will apparently vote on this. I think.

If that's the case, then there will definitely be changes to the proposal. Quite a few regions would vote against it (Pays de la Loire, Poitou-Charentes, and Alsace, to name a few.)

[PGSable]

The French Regions Associations, led by Alain Rousset (the PS president of Aquitaine), launched a new website SauvonsLesRegions.fr.

In unrelated news, Le Monde has a page up tracking Sarkozy's approval ratings in eastern France: Nord-Pas-de-Calais, the "Grand Est" (Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Bourgogne), the Interior East (Lorraine, Alsace, Franche-Comté), and the Mediterranean (Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Languedoc-Roussillon).

[PGSable]

We don't have a thread for the regionals, but the UMP held its primary today. The results are available on the party website.

Turnout in brackets.


Basse Normandie [57.04%]: Lambert 54.59%, , Améline 45.41%

Bourgogne [46.50%]: Suguenot 57.50%, Anciaux 42.50%

Centre [45.81%]: Novelli 72.60%, Lepeltier 27.40%

Ile-de-France [48.08%]: Pécresse 59.87%, Karoutchi 40.13%

Languedoc Roussillon [53.25%]: Couderc 35.43%, Castex 32.95%, Jeanjean 21.54%, Rivenq 10.08%

Midi-Pyrénées [45.50%]: Barèges 54.63%, Trémège 45.37%

Nord-Pas-de-Calais [36.92%]: Lazaro 77.55%, Pick 22.45%

Rhône-Alpes [32.65%]: Grossetête 46.92%, Carle 28.28%, Blanc 24.81%

Aquitaine: Darcos unopposed

Bretagne: Le Guen unopposed

Champagne-Ardenne: Warsmann unopposed

Franche-Comté: Joyandet unopposed

Haute Normandie: Le Maire unopposed

Limousin: Archer unopposed

Lorraine: Hénart unopposed

Pays de la Loire: Bachelot unopposed

Picardie: Cayeux unopposed

Poitou-Charentes: De Richemont unopposed


No results available for Auvergne, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or the overseas regions.

[PGSable]

Montebourg has released the first part of his report on how to reform the PS. His main points include the establishment of American-style open primaries (also used in Greece and Italy) and starting the preparation of the presidential race four years before the election.

In other words, hold the presidential primary right now while Royal is still politically relevant (as Royal suggested immediately after her defeat), and let the MoDem militants vote while you're are it.

Although it would be nice if France had a much simpler partisan registration system.

[PGSable]

The National Assembly rejected 21-15 the Hadopi project, which would crack down on illegal downloading on the interwebs. The plan included email warnings first and later cutting your internet connection outright (while still making you pay for your "connection"). The PS managed to get more deputies out there, in addition to Dupont-Aignan and Jean Dionis du Séjour (NC) also voting against.

Great news for democracy!

The fact that the bill was rejected is great news, but I wouldn't say that only 36 of 577 MNAs showing up to vote, especially on a bill as hyped as this one, is exactly great news for democracy. This was a fluke. It's worth noting that this is only the fourth time a bill that passed through a joint committee is defeated in the final vote, after 1966, 1973, and 1983.

Copé announced that there would be a re-vote on April 28, and I doubt the UMP leadership will let this happen again. But they can't reintroduce the final version; they will have to vote on the bill as it stood as of the last amendment approved by the National Assembly (which means that those who lose their Internet connection don't need to pay for it).

[PGSable]

The European Parliament will vote on a similar measure, Amendment 138, but there is some debate over whether the amendment applies to the Hadopi Law. According to Viviane Reding the CSV European commissioner from Luxembourg for new technologies, it does not.