Off year Elections 2007 : A pointer to 2008?

[Harry Hayfield]

I am grateful to Adam Gray from London for the following summary:

06.11.2007 Steve Beshear wins KY Governor election (D gain from R)
06.11.2007 Haley Barbour wins MS Governor election (R hold)
21.10.2007 Bobby Jindal wins LA Governor election (R gain from D)

Louisana
Now, I think we all knew that Katrina would have an effect on the electorate of the state, but I don't think many people would assume it would result in a Government gain. The question therefore is was it a gain due to the structure of the election (an open primary) or was the effects of Katrina an "anti government" vote regardless of who the government is. In this case the government was a Democrat in charge of the state, so could it follow that a Democrat could win the state in 2008?

Mississippi
If my memory is correct, the last time a Democrat won Mississippi at the presidential level was in 1996 (when Clinton won his second term), suggesting that Mississippi could be one of the swing states in 2008. Not having immediate access to the figures, my gut instinct says "If the swing in Mississippi was smaller than the Dems need to gain in 2008, this will be a GOP hold"

Kentucky
Now, I know that the Governor of Kentucky was as electorally popular as a Conservative councillor here in the UK in 1995, but even so you do have to look at that result and wonder what chance the Republicans have of winning the state in 2008.

[Smash255]

Hi memory was wrong on Mississippi, Dole won it by 5% in 96 the last time a Dem won the state was 76 carter 1.88%.

As for the three states, none of those can really be considered competitive in 08.  Mississippi is very safe for the GOP, as whites in Missisippi vote GOP at almost the same clip blacks vote Dem.  Louisana is not as bad as MS in that regard, but has gotten closer over the last few elections and the population after effects of Katrina doesn't help.  As far as Kentucky, Dems really have not much of a chance there either.  Its possible they could take it, more so Edwards than the others, but even thats unlikely, and for the state to even be competitive it would need to be a large Dem win nationally.

[Silent Hunter]

We could just be dealing with major ticket splitting here.

The old local elections rule applies in the US as much as it applies anywhere else.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Following the 1991 results in New Jersey?:

Now, I know that the Governor of Kentucky ^New Jersey was as electorally popular as a Conservative ^Liberal councillor here in the UK in 1995 ^1983, but even so you do have to look at that result and wonder what chance the Republicans ^Democrats have of winning the state in 2008 ^1992.

[HardRCafé]

Hillary should totally target Mississippi and maybe make Eaves her running mate to shore it up.

[CavanaughPark]

You know the thread is in bad shape when a New York Democrat (TM) brings clarity to the issue.