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Author Topic: 2009 NJ Prediction  (Read 17923 times)
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« on: November 10, 2007, 12:03:22 pm »
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How do you think this race will play out?  If I think the following candidates will take place, and the order they finish in the primary:

Republicans:
1.) US Atty Christopher Christie (42%)
2.) St. Sen. Tom Kean Jr. (29%)
3.) St. Sen. Bill Baroni (14%)
4.) Fmr. Mayor Steve Lonegan (8%)
5.) Councilman Bob Schroeder (7%)

Obviously Corzine wins the Democrats.  I think that following the wave of corruption that will continue to be rooted out in the two years until this election, voters want a change and the man they want to end that change is the man who is responsible for weeding out the corruption.

Result:
Christie 51%
Corzine 47%
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
Joe Republic
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2007, 12:36:00 pm »

DWDL predicting the Republican to win?  I am shocked.  SHOCKED.


How's US Senator Tom Kean Jr. getting along, by the way?
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2007, 03:39:55 pm »
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DWDL predicting the Republican to win?  I am shocked.  SHOCKED.


How's US Senator Tom Kean Jr. getting along, by the way?

I don't know, why don't you ask Rep. Foley?
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2007, 07:55:36 am »

That might have been a valid comeback if I'd predicted Foley to have a position of importance before he resigned.  But as it is, that was entirely irrelevant.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2007, 10:45:28 am »
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That might have been a valid comeback if I'd predicted Foley to have a position of importance before he resigned.  But as it is, that was entirely irrelevant.
My point was if not for Foley, Kean would have won.  I believe I took a hiatus from the forum due to an overload in school work right around the time of the Foley scandal until the election.  When I left, Kean was the favorite
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2007, 10:52:52 am »

My point was if not for Foley, Kean would have won.

Don't be so ridiculous.  A scandal involving a congressman from Florida did not account for a 9 point margin of victory for the Democrat in New Jersey.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2007, 10:58:45 am »
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My point was if not for Foley, Kean would have won.

Don't be so ridiculous.  A scandal involving a congressman from Florida did not account for a 9 point margin of victory for the Democrat in New Jersey.
I disagree, it created a national disgust with the Republicans that lead the blind sheep of NJ into voting for Menendez and the Republicans to stop giving money for the last minute blitz that could have put him over the top.
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2007, 11:09:35 am »

... and that caused the difference of 9 points?  Yeah right.

"Meet DownWithDaLeft; same clueless hack as the old DownWithDaLeft."  (Although at least you appear to have learned to spell during your absence.)
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2007, 11:14:03 am »
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... and that caused the difference of 9 points?  Yeah right.

"Meet DownWithDaLeft; same clueless hack as the old DownWithDaLeft."  (Although at least you appear to have learned to spell during your absence.)
The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2007, 02:24:18 pm »
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... and that caused the difference of 9 points?  Yeah right.

"Meet DownWithDaLeft; same clueless hack as the old DownWithDaLeft."  (Although at least you appear to have learned to spell during your absence.)
The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won
What poll? No poll I read. It's just a ridiculous allegation.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2007, 02:28:36 pm »
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... and that caused the difference of 9 points?  Yeah right.

"Meet DownWithDaLeft; same clueless hack as the old DownWithDaLeft."  (Although at least you appear to have learned to spell during your absence.)
The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won
What poll? No poll I read. It's just a ridiculous allegation.
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=34

Notice a sudden aberration end of September early Oct?
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2007, 03:22:43 pm »
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The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won

You're right, Foley was a factor. It moved 10% of the voters from Republican to Democratic. However, after Foley but before Election Day, New Jersey's supreme court legalized gay marriage. That moved 10% of voters from Democratic to Republican. If not for that, Kean would have lost by 19 points.
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« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2007, 03:49:41 pm »
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Off topic, I know, but who is the woman (dark haired, light blue clothes) pictured in the photo?
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2007, 04:26:30 pm »
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Off topic, I know, but who is the woman (dark aired, light blue clothes) picutred in the photo?

Fmr. Mayor or Rutherford Bernadette McPherson, ousted in historic fashion as a symbol of the rejection of property taxes, overdevelopment, dual-office holding and corruption that has plagued NJ
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2007, 07:17:07 pm »
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Lol dual-office holding? Almost everybody in France does that, most deputies are mayors and deputy in Paris at the same time. Some even go to triple office holding.
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Verily
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« Reply #15 on: November 11, 2007, 07:54:01 pm »
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Off topic, I know, but who is the woman (dark aired, light blue clothes) picutred in the photo?

Fmr. Mayor or Rutherford Bernadette McPherson, ousted in historic fashion as a symbol of the rejection of property taxes, overdevelopment, dual-office holding and corruption that has plagued NJ

LOL, dual-office holding isn't frowned on by anyone in NJ except you. Rutherford should have been happy to have a mayor who had extra power at the county level. She was not particularly corrupt, either, certainly not more than those who replaced her, and the Republicans are even more in favor of development than the Democrats in most of Bergen County (which is why anti-development groups tend to be movements within the Democratic primaries or independents).
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #16 on: November 11, 2007, 08:11:32 pm »
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Off topic, I know, but who is the woman (dark aired, light blue clothes) picutred in the photo?

Fmr. Mayor or Rutherford Bernadette McPherson, ousted in historic fashion as a symbol of the rejection of property taxes, overdevelopment, dual-office holding and corruption that has plagued NJ

LOL, dual-office holding isn't frowned on by anyone in NJ except you. Rutherford should have been happy to have a mayor who had extra power at the county level. She was not particularly corrupt, either, certainly not more than those who replaced her, and the Republicans are even more in favor of development than the Democrats in most of Bergen County (which is why anti-development groups tend to be movements within the Democratic primaries or independents).
I think you should really take a look at the police officer's salaries and some of the town employees she appointed who were cronies but not qualified before you say she isn't corrupt.  And as far as underdevelopment, Dems went down in smokes faster because they supported EnCap and Repubs opposed it.  Repubs also opposed housing east of Route 17, something Dems supported.
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2007, 01:53:45 am »
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... and that caused the difference of 9 points?  Yeah right.

"Meet DownWithDaLeft; same clueless hack as the old DownWithDaLeft."  (Although at least you appear to have learned to spell during your absence.)
The polls seem to suggest that it did, NJ has a large number of undecided until the end of the election that typically break hard Democrat at the end (much larger than 9%), if they broke less hard than usual (which they broke harder than usual for the Dems), Kean would have won
What poll? No poll I read. It's just a ridiculous allegation.
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2006/polls.php?fips=34

Notice a sudden aberration end of September early Oct?

It called chronic NJ polling.  We have seen this many times over.  Polling especially ones further out from Election Day show things much better for the GOP than the end result does.   As Election Day get closer the polls tend to swing Democratic and are much closer to the end result than the earlier polling (though at times they are still too GOP friendly).  Granted no matter where you are polls closer to Election day are going to be more likely accurate than polls further away from Election day.  However it generally breaks both ways, sometimes the earlier polls are more GOP than the final result, other times they are more Democratic.  NJ though has a special  tradition of their polls, especially their early polls being more friendly to the GOP than reality and the final result.  Its nothing new.   
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Former Moderate
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2007, 02:24:27 am »
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Off topic, I know, but who is the woman (dark aired, light blue clothes) picutred in the photo?

Fmr. Mayor or Rutherford Bernadette McPherson, ousted in historic fashion as a symbol of the rejection of property taxes, overdevelopment, dual-office holding and corruption that has plagued NJ

LOL, dual-office holding isn't frowned on by anyone in NJ except you. Rutherford should have been happy to have a mayor who had extra power at the county level. She was not particularly corrupt, either, certainly not more than those who replaced her, and the Republicans are even more in favor of development than the Democrats in most of Bergen County (which is why anti-development groups tend to be movements within the Democratic primaries or independents).

Dual office holding is frowned on by plenty of people in New Jersey.  Just not enough, generally, to swing elections.

I certainly oppose dual office holding.  (Though, as Conan is thrilled to point out, I don't live there anymore.)
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RWC
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« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2010, 06:41:22 am »
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I feel the corruption is the thing that any new person that is elected will struggle to get control of it because of money.
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #20 on: April 14, 2011, 12:38:07 pm »
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     DWTL actually came pretty close to the final margin.
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