NM Senate: Udall Internal shows him ahead of Chavez, beating all Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday's reports were correct, and Tom Udall confirmed that he was in the Senate race via his chief of staff who told the AP today, "He's definitely running." The Udall campaign also released an internal poll, and the numbers are pretty much in line with everything else we have seen from independent polls:

* Tom Udall crushes both Heather Wilson 52% to 36% and Steve Pearce 50% to 33%.

* Marty Chavez, on the other hand, only leads Wilson by 4 (47-43) and trails Pearce by as much (44-40).
   
* The survey also contains the first primary poll we have seen, and has Udall up 50% to 30%.

This is an internal poll, so take it with a grain of salt. But the general election numbers are strikingly identical to the two SUSA polls and the Research 2000 poll that were released over the past month.

http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/saturday-roundup-clinton-hit-for-having.html

http://draftudall.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/udall_poll_memo.pdf

[Verily]

Udall should win the primary easily, and it looks as if he'll win the general fairly easily, too. As you said, it's strikingly similar to the other polls we've had of this race.

[Tender Branson]

Udall should win the primary easily, and it looks as if he'll win the general fairly easily, too. As you said, it's strikingly similar to the other polls we've had of this race.

Udall will not win the GE by 10%+, but by something like 3-5%. I expect him to do somewhat better than the Democratic Presidential candidate, whoever that is (except Richardson, who would carry NM by a bigger than normal margin).

[Adlai Stevenson]

Udall should win the primary easily, and it looks as if he'll win the general fairly easily, too. As you said, it's strikingly similar to the other polls we've had of this race.

Udall will not win the GE by 10%+, but by something like 3-5%. I expect him to do somewhat better than the Democratic Presidential candidate, whoever that is (except Richardson, who would carry NM by a bigger than normal margin).

I think Udall will win the general election with about 53%-56% of the vote.  The Democratic Presidential nominee (i.e. Hillary Clinton) will win New Mexico with around 51%-52%.  I don't think the Republicans will get lower than 46% of the vote. 

[Sam Spade]

Yet more evidence that 1) Chavez chose the right race to make his stand and 2) New Mexico polling is never to be trusted, ever.