West Virginia

[ukchris82]

Why did West Virginia flip in 2000?
Do you see ti returning to the Dems in '08?
Cheers

Chris

[WalterMitty]

chris dodd can win.

[Tender Branson]

We have yet to see a reliable poll from WV. The one with Clinton ahead was from May this year and was conducted by a pollster I have never heard of before. Rasmussen will likely release a WV poll soon. For now I would say it is still likely to go to the Republican candidate, but by a smaller margin than in 2004 ...

[Kushahontas]

We have yet to see a reliable poll from WV. The one with Clinton ahead was from May this year and was conducted by a pollster I have never heard of before. Rasmussen will likely release a WV poll soon. For now I would say it is still likely to go to the Republican candidate, but by a smaller margin than in 2004 ...

IAWTC. we'll just have to wait and see. it's a lot like colorado scenario in the other thread. against thompson and/or huckabee? the dems will probably lose it. with romney, they have a golden opportunity and im not sure about how good giuliani does there but i'd imagine him being the nominee could make it close and the dems would have a glimmer.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why did West Virginia flip in 2000?

Al Gore was seen as too anti-gun and his strong environmental message was perceived as anti-coal.

Since gun control is essentially a dead issue now and the Democrats know how to work things better on coal issues I don't think this should be too much of a problem.

Do you see ti returning to the Dems in '08?

Yes, largely because neither a socially liberal, cross-dressing, thrice-married, adulterous big city mayor or a flip-flopping Mormon from Massachusetts strike me as very strong candidates for it.

[minionofmidas]

Why did West Virginia flip in 2000?

Al Gore was seen as too anti-gun and his strong environmental message was perceived as anti-coal.

Since gun control is essentially a dead issue now and the Democrats know how to work things better on coal issues I don't think this should be too much of a problem.

Do you see ti returning to the Dems in '08?

Yes, largely because neither a socially liberal, cross-dressing, thrice-married, adulterous big city mayor or a flip-flopping Mormon from Massachusetts strike me as very strong candidates for it.

Then again, Democrats will want to Ban The Bible again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

[Kevin]

West Virginia has tilted more strongly towards the Republicans in the last two Presidential elections, However as we all know it is by no means sure for the Republicans to win. In matter of fact I think Hillary Clinton would be very competitive here with her positions on many economic issues and with the overall Democratic position regarding the War in Iraq despite the fact that no action has really been taken on the part of the Democrats to bring US troops out. In addition Clinton would be even more competitive if she choose current West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin  or newly elected Ohio Governor Ted Strickland as possible VP choices.   

[WalterMitty]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

Why would it be impossible for Edwards to do something that's happened as recently as 1996?

[WalterMitty]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

Why would it be impossible for Edwards to do something that's happened as recently as 1996?

because he isnt bill clinton?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

Why would it be impossible for Edwards to do something that's happened as recently as 1996?

because he isnt bill clinton?

No, he's a much better economic fit for the state.

[auburntiger]

She probably has a better shot to win West Virginia than Colorado.

[WalterMitty]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

Why would it be impossible for Edwards to do something that's happened as recently as 1996?

because he isnt bill clinton?

No, he's a much better economic fit for the state.

uh.  edwards is a liberal.  a big liberal.  not saying that is a bad thing.

but it isnt a good fit for wv politically.

(and i would also argue that b clinton was much more successful at connecting with the comman man than edwards will ever be)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Edwards could win it by 10 points or more.

lolz.

know any more funny jokes?

Why would it be impossible for Edwards to do something that's happened as recently as 1996?

because he isnt bill clinton?

No, he's a much better economic fit for the state.

uh.  edwards is a liberal.  a big liberal.  not saying that is a bad thing.

but it isnt a good fit for wv politically.

(and i would also argue that b clinton was much more successful at connecting with the comman man than edwards will ever be)

And on economic issues, WV is "big" liberal. And he certainly is a better fit than any of the GOP candidates (and no, "law and order" is not the big issue in WV.)

[WalterMitty]

so brtd, i assume you think edwards will win big in kentucky also?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He can win it (I mean, polls show that even Hillary can, if she can he certainly can.) That doesn't mean he'd win big, but neither did Clinton.

Edwards winning WV by a large margin would also have just as much to do with the GOP candidates being horrible fits for the state than his appeal there.

I'd say any state that voted for Clinton either time is winnable, except Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Montana.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I could see West Virginia flipping with Giuliani or Romney as the nominee.  If Thompson is nominated, then WV will stay in the GOP column.

[auburntiger]

He can win it (I mean, polls show that even Hillary can, if she can he certainly can.) That doesn't mean he'd win big, but neither did Clinton.

Edwards winning WV by a large margin would also have just as much to do with the GOP candidates being horrible fits for the state than his appeal there.

I'd say any state that voted for Clinton either time is winnable, except Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Montana.

Polls also show her doing well in TN. I think, sadly, that Tennessee is winnable for the Dems. Bush is very unpopular here now - 60% disapprove. Georgia and Louisiana have undergone a much more seismic political shift to the right than Tennessee has. Montana is a wildcard

[Bandit3 the Worker]

so brtd, i assume you think edwards will win big in kentucky also?

If Edwards is the nominee, he WILL win Kentucky!

That is a GUARANTEE!

Edwards versus Giuliani in Kentucky...I'd love to see the results of that one!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'd say any state that voted for Clinton either time is winnable, except Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Montana.

Montana is definitely winnable for the Democrats, especially Edwards.

[MarkWarner08]

He can win it (I mean, polls show that even Hillary can, if she can he certainly can.) That doesn't mean he'd win big, but neither did Clinton.

Edwards winning WV by a large margin would also have just as much to do with the GOP candidates being horrible fits for the state than his appeal there.

I'd say any state that voted for Clinton either time is winnable, except Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Montana.

Edwards' baggage:

His wife has been diagnosed with a terminal illness. Many lower income rural voters are distrustful of a candidate who places his political aspirations over his duties as a husband. While Mrs. Edwards claims campaigning helps her body repel the cancer, some voters will wonder why the former Senator is at home with his wife.

Phony populist. Perception drives reality in politics. Despite his affluent background and health problems, FDR was hailed by the masses as a strong leader who understood the concerns of middle income Americans. John Edwards, who helped launch a poverty center at UNC, is an unlikely modern archetype for the fiery populist. Edwards lives in a sprawling estate situated on the largest private lot in the county and has a predilection for expensive haircuts. In an age of authenticity, voters dislike the rich phony who claims to understands the vox populi more than the aristocrat who ignores the interests of the masses.


LIBERAL. Guess what? John Edwards is a flaming liberal. After six years of assiduously compiling a moderate record in the U.S Senate, this now unemployed son of a mill worker has undergone the greatest transformation since George Wallace cast off his early support of civil rights to become a bigoted segregationist. Edwards is  running against the wealthy Washington insiders who place politics over principle and value a lunch with lobbyists over the needs of their constituents. The problem for Edwards is that the one person who comes closest to embodying this stereotype is John Edwards, circa 2004.  If Senator Edwards had undergone such a radical political reinvention in the 1860's, he would've been branded a scalawag.

John Edwards' three weaknesses: He's putting his career over his wife, he's not genuine and he's undergone an ill-conceived idealogical makeover that will jeopardize his general election appeal. Other than that, he's a strong candidate.

Edit: Did I mention Edwards is a protectionist?

[ottermax]

I think that the mood is more focused on the economy, which will help WV turn toward the Dems. Iraq is a huge issue, but few people support the war anymore. Does anyone know how many people support the Iraq War these days?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I think that the mood is more focused on the economy, which will help WV turn toward the Dems. Iraq is a huge issue, but few people support the war anymore. Does anyone know how many people support the Iraq War these days?

Outside the Freeper-type blogs and hate talk radio, I don't think hardly anyone supported the war to begin with.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He can win it (I mean, polls show that even Hillary can, if she can he certainly can.) That doesn't mean he'd win big, but neither did Clinton.

Edwards winning WV by a large margin would also have just as much to do with the GOP candidates being horrible fits for the state than his appeal there.

I'd say any state that voted for Clinton either time is winnable, except Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana and Montana.

Edwards' baggage:

His wife has been diagnosed with a terminal illness. Many lower income rural voters are distrustful of a candidate who places his political aspirations over his duties as a husband. While Mrs. Edwards claims campaigning helps her body repel the cancer, some voters will wonder why the former Senator is at home with his wife.

Phony populist. Perception drives reality in politics. Despite his affluent background and health problems, FDR was hailed by the masses as a strong leader who understood the concerns of middle income Americans. John Edwards, who helped launch a poverty center at UNC, is an unlikely modern archetype for the fiery populist. Edwards lives in a sprawling estate situated on the largest private lot in the county and has a predilection for expensive haircuts. In an age of authenticity, voters dislike the rich phony who claims to understands the vox populi more than the aristocrat who ignores the interests of the masses.

LIBERAL. Guess what? John Edwards is a flaming liberal. After six years of assiduously compiling a moderate record in the U.S Senate, this now unemployed son of a mill worker has undergone the greatest transformation since George Wallace cast off his early support of civil rights to become a bigoted segregationist. Edwards is  running against the wealthy Washington insiders who place politics over principle and value a lunch with lobbyists over the needs of their constituents. The problem for Edwards is that the one person who comes closest to embodying this stereotype is John Edwards, circa 2004.  If Senator Edwards had undergone such a radical political reinvention in the 1860's, he would've been branded a scalawag.

John Edwards' three weaknesses: He's putting his career over his wife, he's not genuine and he's undergone an ill-conceived idealogical makeover that will jeopardize his general election appeal. Other than that, he's a strong candidate.

Edit: Did I mention Edwards is a protectionist?

While a lot of that is correct, look at the GOP candidates. It's not like West Virginia and Kentucky are going to fall in love with a cross-dressing, socially liberal, thrice-married, gun-grabbing NYC mayor or a flip-flopping Mormon from Massachusetts. And being a protectionist sure as hell isn't going to HURT in those states.