Johnson/Humphrey vs. Eisenhower/ Scranton
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Johnson/Humphrey vs. Eisenhower/ Scranton
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Author Topic: Johnson/Humphrey vs. Eisenhower/ Scranton  (Read 1815 times)
Reluctant Republican
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« on: November 12, 2007, 06:42:08 PM »

I don’t think this one has been done yet, but it requires a bit of a back story to make it plausible, and a suspension of disbelief is required..

Let’s say that Republicans, realizing that it might not be in their best interest to pass the 22nd amendment, block it from passing, and the Amendment dies in 1951 and is not brought up again. Ike serves two terms but decides to retire in 1960 as he did IRL, leading to Nixon being defeated by Kennedy.

Kennedy dies as in our history, and Johnson secures the Democratic nomination and picks Humphrey as his running mate. However, on the Republican side, moderate and liberal Republicans are worried that Barry Goldwater will get nominated and take their party far to the right, leading to a lopsided defeat. After figuring out that figures such as Rockefeller will not be able to defeat Goldwater, the party turns to Eisenhower and begs him to come back out into the political field. Eisenhower refuses at first, citing age as his main concern, but he too is worried about Goldwater, and after being convinced that he is the only one who can prevent the Arizona senator from being nominated, announces his run for President and secures the nomination, picking William Scranton of Pennsylvania as his running mate. Ike  calms the upset conservatives by promising them crucial cabinet posts if he is elected.

So, would Eisenhower have a shot at beating Johnson? It’s often said that no Republican could have won in 1964, but I believe that Eisenhower would have served as a reassuring figure to the nation and would have had the potential to make the election very close. On the other hand, his advanced age and his perceived ineffectual first presidency might have harmed him. But what are everyone else’s thoughts?

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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2007, 08:08:04 PM »

Probably the only Republican ticket that, I could see, be a serious threat towards LBJ in 1964.

It would be an uphill battle though. First JFK's assassination a year earlier does bring the sympathy vote for LBJ. Second is Ike's age. He is 74 years old and the public is aware of his heart attack and stroke during his presidency. More than likely, he wouldn't have made it four more years of elected office.

Ike is seen as grandfather in 1964 and is popular even though most ranked him as an average president. Does he win? He could however Ike would need to run an almost perfect campaign and proove that he has the physical stamina to hold office for another 4 years.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2007, 10:32:33 PM »

In the course of human history, there is a time to become involved in the thick of affairs, and a time to stay on the sidelines.  Eisenhower's time to become involved was in World War II, and in the Presidential campaigns of 1952 and 1956.  By 1964, Eisenhower's time had passed.

Eisenhower makes the race much closer, but Johnson still wins comfortably.   

Johnson/Humphrey                  322
Eisenhower/Scranton               216

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HappyWarrior
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2007, 11:02:54 PM »

In the course of human history, there is a time to become involved in the thick of affairs, and a time to stay on the sidelines.  Eisenhower's time to become involved was in World War II, and in the Presidential campaigns of 1952 and 1956.  By 1964, Eisenhower's time had passed.

Eisenhower makes the race much closer, but Johnson still wins comfortably.   

Johnson/Humphrey                  322
Eisenhower/Scranton               216



IT HAPPENED!  And in the least likely thread I would havet thought lol
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2007, 03:26:14 PM »


Johnson/Humphrey: 57% PV, 413 EV
Eisenhower/Scranton: 43% PV, 125 EV
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gorkay
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2007, 06:49:20 PM »

Ike would have been too old and frail to run in 1964, and wouldn't have wanted to go up against LBJ anyway, since he looked like a sure winner.
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