Plaid Civil War becomes official

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As most of you know Plaid Cymru has had a bad few years; electoral disaster has followed electoral disaster and now they're left with less M.P's than in 1992. The only good spot for them this year has been the increased majority in Carmathen East & Dinefwr; and that owes more to the death of Gwynfor Evans shortly before polling day than anything else.

Criticisms of the current confused leadership have been growing for some time, and they're dire showing in the Westminster elections prompted some harsh criticism from Plaid's head of policy, Simon Thomas, who lost his Ceredigion seat to the LibDems.

The growing internal divisions have been made official with the launch of a new pressure group within Plaid; Dewis (which means Choice) headed by two big names from the past; former leader Dafydd Wigley and Cynog Dafis (who won Ceredigion from the LibDems in 1992).
They've yet to launch their programme, but Dafis has said that Plaid need to work with other parties in the assembly... and suprise, suprise the new group has been attacked by party President Dafydd Iwan (who's never been elected to anything, btw).

Wigley and Dafis are basically social democrats who happen to be nationalists, while the current leadership are nationalists (often hardliners like Iwan) who only bother with the social democratic stuff in a half hearted attempt to get votes (this being Wales).

Things could get very, very nasty...

[Rural Radical]

They are in decline in Wales. Only really appealing to the Anti-English vote in North West Wales. Of the seats they hold all three have majority Social -Democratic (Labour) electorates. Mainly white & working Class.

At the next election I wouldnt be suprised if they Lost Caernarfon (linked with Bangor at the review. I think.) to Labour.

If as I imagine the Lib Dems become more of a 'Orange Book Liberal' (Centre-Right on Economics & Socially Left of centre) Party where this will appeal to the rural communities of Ceredigion. Then they will cement their hold on that seat.

[ilikeverin]

Go Dewis

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At the next election I wouldnt be suprised if they Lost Caernarfon (linked with Bangor at the review. I think.) to Labour.

From they're perspective it's worse than just that; Caernarfon (renamed Arfon) loses the Lleyn Peninsula, which is part of a new seat along with Merionnydd. Be interesting to see who runs for that; Llwyd lives in the Nant Conwy part of the existing seat, while is going into *another* new seat; Aberconwy,

[Rural Radical]

Is there a map available showing the changes for wales yet ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://www.bcomm-wales.gov.uk/bcwengreviewareas.htm

[Rural Radical]

To me Arfon looks like a safe Labour seat.

I dont know about the other one (wont attempt to spell it)
Does anyone think it would stil be a plaid seat ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should be safe enough for Plaid for now; but they could have candidate troubles and that area can get *very* parochial at times...
I forget where the Plaid M.P for Caernarfon (I can't even remember his name... not exactly a high profile figure) lives. If it's Caernarfon, the new DM seat will probably be open (Llwyd lives in Nant Conwy), if not the Merionth side of the new seat mightn't like having an M.P from the Lleyn.
Whole area is far more diverse than people think.

[Rural Radical]

With regard to the boundary changes. Plaid could be reduced to just 2 seats at the next election (Merrioned & Carmarthen East) as Arfon  & Ynys Mon should be Labour & I cant seee the Lib Dems losing Ceredigion. With Regards to Aberconwy it looks IMO like aa Labour/Con marginal any thoughts.

Plaid arent copmetitive as they have now shot there bolt in Llanelli.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iwan in a spot of local trouble...

[Ben.]

Is there a map available showing the changes for wales yet ?

I'm looking for a map of the enitre of greater London under the new boundaries but thus far to no avail, any ideas?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm looking for a map of the enitre of greater London under the new boundaries but thus far to no avail, any ideas?

For that you'd need a ward map of the whole GLA to work from, and I don't know if there is one... actually there might be one on www.statistics.gov but it would probably be in a .pdf file.
There's a ward map of all the boroughs in the old LCC at www.election.demon.co.uk which I've used as a base for my map of the Mayoral elections (which is on here: www.freewebs.com/christiansocialism)

[Ben.]

I'm looking for a map of the enitre of greater London under the new boundaries but thus far to no avail, any ideas?

For that you'd need a ward map of the whole GLA to work from, and I don't know if there is one... actually there might be one on www.statistics.gov but it would probably be in a .pdf file.
There's a ward map of all the boroughs in the old LCC at www.election.demon.co.uk which I've used as a base for my map of the Mayoral elections (which is on here: www.freewebs.com/christiansocialism)

Thanks, Nice little site you have there

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice little site you have there

Thanks
A map of numerical majorities (as opposed to % ones) will be up soon