REAL redistricting in the Republic of Ireland

[Kevinstat]

The Irish Constituency Commission ( http://www.constituency-commission.ie ) submitted its proposals for the new Dáil and European Parliament constituencies to the Chairman of the Dáil Éireann on October 23 - excuse me, I mean 23 October 2007.  You can view their report at http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs/con2007.pdf and access maps of the proposals from their site at http://www.constituency-commission.ie/newreports.htm .  The electionsireland.org site has the same links as that last page plus summary information on the proposed changes at http://www.electionsireland.org/results/general/boundary/2007constituencies.cfm .

The commission seemed, in many cases, to make as few changes as possible.  Many people expected a 5-seat constituency to be created in County Kerry, perhaps with some territory in districts otherwise in Counties Cork and/or Limerick.  A 4-seat Kerry constituency would function as a 4-seater in the next election should the current Ceann Comhairle (speaker), John O'Donoghue, stand for automatic reelection.  But O'Donohue's constituency of Kerry South remains a 3-seater, and the constituency only grows so I can't see any other constituency as proposed being deemed the successor to the current Kerry South with respect to rule whatever it is that has the Ceann Comhairle automatically returned unless he or she steps down.  So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donoghue  decides to retire (could Gully Foyle or Jas speculate on how likely that is?).

The many please from Leitrim residents to end the split of their county fell on deaf ears, and the line dividing the county between Sligo-North Leitrim and Roscommon-South Leitrim was moved southeast from the River Shannon and Lough Allen to a more arbitrary boundary on seemingly largely dry land to bring the Sligo seat closer to the ideal population per TD.  The commission did address the concerns of residents of Drogheda and its environs by expanding the 4-seat Lough constituency south into Drogheda-oriented area in County Meath and making it a 5-seater.

With the European Parliament constituencies, the commission decided to keep the four-constituency model in spite of the Republic of Ireland losing a seat, and kept the old (and still official) County Dublin in one slightly (12%, practically exactly) overpopulated constituency.  The 16.76% underpopulated North-West constitency, however, was brought closer to the national average population per MEP by adding the counties of Longford and Westmeath from the existing East constituency.  From the current 13-seat situation the only constituency where the deviation from the national average population per MEP will grow is Dublin, and that only from 9% (under) to 12% (over), so that's good.  I would have preferred, however, dividing the existing East constituency among the Dublin (renamed East or South-East, perhaps renaming South South-West in the latter case) and North-West constituencies, with North-West becoming a four-seater and a new 5-seater being formed (South fit too well to tweak).  Three of the proposed Dáil constituencies consist of territory within three proposed European constituencies (Limerick City mostly in South, which includes an electoral division in County Clare in North-West, Tippery North now entirely in South, which expended into County Offaly in East, and Meath West now entirely in East, which still includes part of County Westmeath in the proposed North-West constituency), while only one existing Dáil constituency, Limerick East (the predecessor to the proposed Limerick City constituency, which was unchanged with respect to County Clare) is currently divided among European Parliament constituencies.  That's not a big deal I don't think, just something interesting I observed.

Looking forward to your comments, particularly those of the Atlas Forum's resident Irishmen.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This has already been discussed between me and Jas in the Irish General discussion thread; of course I could go back into now but I have stuff to do and time to consider.. I will say this:

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Haven't heard any rumour myself of O'Donahoe resigning.

[Kevinstat]

It just occured to me that it probably isn't a coincidence that County Westmeath is west of County Meath.  I know one county besides County Meath was mostly or entirely in the old Kingdon of Meath or Midi, and that was probably County Westmeath, which would have been in the west of Meath.  I can be slow sometimes.

Too bad for the people of Kerry South likely being in an effective two-seater for the next election.  Still better than our one-seaters I guess.

[minionofmidas]

This has already been discussed between me and Jas in the Irish General discussion thread

For easy reference: It's on page 5.

[minionofmidas]

It just occured to me that it probably isn't a coincidence that County Westmeath is west of County Meath.  I know one county besides County Meath was mostly or entirely in the old Kingdon of Meath or Midi, and that was probably County Westmeath, which would have been in the west of Meath.  I can be slow sometimes.

Too bad for the people of Kerry South likely being in an effective two-seater for the next election.  Still better than our one-seaters I guess.

Not really. Two seaters with PR are basically the same thing as doing without elections altogether. Chile has them, btw.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I know it's confusing, also some of Westmeath has been divided into Meath West to balance out the population; though thankfully we put our counties name's first and then the relative location so we say Meath West for the constituency based in the west of Meath and West Meath. Confused, eh?

Oh and for record the Kingdom of Meath was more than just Meath and Westmeath but also Longford and South Co. Louth. North Co. Louth was traditionally part of Ulster.

[minionofmidas]

I know it's confusing, also some of Westmeath has been divided into Meath West to balance out the population; though thankfully we put our counties name's first and then the relative location so we say Meath West for the constituency based in the west of Meath and West Meath. Confused, eh?

Oh and for record the Kingdom of Meath was more than just Meath and Westmeath but also Longford and South Co. Louth. North Co. Louth was traditionally part of Ulster.

I want the constituency renamed Meath West & Westmeath East!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I know it's confusing, also some of Westmeath has been divided into Meath West to balance out the population; though thankfully we put our counties name's first and then the relative location so we say Meath West for the constituency based in the west of Meath and West Meath. Confused, eh?

Oh and for record the Kingdom of Meath was more than just Meath and Westmeath but also Longford and South Co. Louth. North Co. Louth was traditionally part of Ulster.

I want the constituency renamed Meath West & Westmeath East!

Oops.. Brain fart. Yep, Meast West. That area of Westmeath in Meast West (Aaaggh..) isn't iirc very populated *looks up constituency maps*.. Yeah I don't that area at all so I can't imagine it's very densely populated. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know it's confusing, also some of Westmeath has been divided into Meath West to balance out the population; though thankfully we put our counties name's first and then the relative location so we say Meath West for the constituency based in the west of Meath and West Meath. Confused, eh?

Oh and for record the Kingdom of Meath was more than just Meath and Westmeath but also Longford and South Co. Louth. North Co. Louth was traditionally part of Ulster.

I want the constituency renamed Meath West & Westmeath East!

Finally, a name that can beat West Bromwich East!

[Kevinstat]

The last time there was an effective two-seater in an election was in 1977 when Seán Treacy was the outgoing Ceann Comhairle.  His constituency of Tipperary South had been a four-seater (actually and effectively) in the previous election.  It gained it's forth seat and had lost it's Ceann Comhairle (although not Treacy) for the next election, got it's Ceann Comhairle back by the 1989 election, and would have been an effective two-seater again in 1997 after losing its forth seat had Treacy not stood down that year after 36 straight years in the Dáil.

I had moved on to other things in the middle of making this post.  I'm glad to see there have been several comments.  West Bromwich East is quite a name for a constituency.  Does it still exist?  It was (or is) a House of Commons constituency name right?

[Verily]

It's a Labour seat in the Black Country. Fortunately, it's a safe seat, so it doesn't come up very often in discussion, except that it's one of the areas where the BNP saved their deposit in 2005 so it may be back on the radar at the next election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_East

Equally quality is West Bromwich West (also a strong Labour seat with a substantial BNP presence).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Bromwich_West

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny thing is that there's no need for the stupid names; very little of West Brom itself is actually in West Brom West (which is based around smaller Black Country towns; principally Tipton, Wednesbury and Oldbury).

West Brom East was actually a marginal in the '80's. West Brom West was Betty Boothroyd's seat.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While having nothing to do with Irish politics, I'd like to point out that there exist the towns of North, South Carolina, and Due West, South Carolina.

[Kevinstat]

It just occured to me that it probably isn't a coincidence that County Westmeath is west of County Meath.  I know one county besides County Meath was mostly or entirely in the old Kingdon of Meath or Midi, and that was probably County Westmeath, which would have been in the west of Meath.  I can be slow sometimes.

Too bad for the people of Kerry South likely being in an effective two-seater for the next election.  Still better than our one-seaters I guess.

Not really. Two seaters with PR are basically the same thing as doing without elections altogether. Chile has them, btw.

In most parts of the U.S. that would be the case, but I could see a decent contest for the non-Fianna Fáil seat in Kerry South, although Fine Gael's Tom Sheahan would seem to be the favorite.  He might get a lot of Jackie Healy-Rae's vote if he doesn't run (or after elimination) and after it goes to the winning Fianna Fáil candidate and after the second Fianna Fáil candidate is eliminated - it would probably go to Sheahan over Breeda Moynihan Cronin is what I'm saying, although it could be relatively dilluted by then.  There was stasis in terms of the partisan result in Donegal-Leitrim during Cormac Breslin's reign as Ceann Comhairle, but towards the end of the Frank Fahy era when Galway South was a functional two-seater two other Fianna Fáil TDs were elected in 1948 ( http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1948&cons=128 ), likely benifitting from some old CG partisans within Fine Gael not giving later preferences to the staunchly Republican Clann na Poblachta after their leading candidate overtook the FG candidate, but in 1951 ( http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1951&cons=128 ) the Fine Gael vote was up there and their governmental alliance with Clann na Poblachta after the 1948 elections apparently enabled their candidate Patrick Cawley to get the first non-Ceann Comhairle seat (although my guess is Fianna Fail won the other seat after the second count as well, as close as their top candidate was to a quota).  So there can be competition in two-seat constituencies in Ireland.

[Kevinstat]

West Brom East was actually a marginal in the '80's. West Brom West was Betty Boothroyd's seat.
[/quote]

I doubt there were that many safe Labour seats in the Midlands in the '80s.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I doubt there were that many safe Labour seats in the Midlands in the '80s.

You'd be surprised then

Most of the core industrial seats (including West Brom West) were quite safe, as were some inner city seats (all seats in Nottingham went Tory in '83!). The areas in which Labour did badly throughout the '80's were mostly working class suburbs full of the sort of people who would have been called Reagan Democrats had they lived across the Pond. West Brom East is a good example.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I doubt there were that many safe Labour seats in the Midlands in the '80s.

You'd be surprised then

Most of the core industrial seats (including West Brom West) were quite safe, as were some inner city seats (all seats in Nottingham went Tory in '83!). The areas in which Labour did badly throughout the '80's were mostly working class suburbs full of the sort of people who would have been called Reagan Democrats had they lived across the Pond. West Brom East is a good example.

In Ireland the vast majority of those people are and have been since 1932, Fianna Fail voters: as a matter of the fact you could just have described Bertie Ahern's home base in Dublin Central (Need to back on the Ireland trail)

[Јas]

The commission seemed, in many cases, to make as few changes as possible.

Yep, much like last time. They're a conservative bunch alright.

Many people expected a 5-seat constituency to be created in County Kerry, perhaps with some territory in districts otherwise in Counties Cork and/or Limerick.  A 4-seat Kerry constituency would function as a 4-seater in the next election should the current Ceann Comhairle (speaker), John O'Donoghue, stand for automatic reelection.  But O'Donohue's constituency of Kerry South remains a 3-seater, and the constituency only grows so I can't see any other constituency as proposed being deemed the successor to the current Kerry South with respect to rule whatever it is that has the Ceann Comhairle automatically returned unless he or she steps down.  So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donoghue  decides to retire (could Gully Foyle or Jas speculate on how likely that is?).

I don't see O'Donoghue retiring. Certainly there's no suggestion or expectation that he will. It's a possibility, but one would have to feel a distinctly unlikely one.

A 5-seater Kerry formulation was an option, but would likely have caused significant problems in sorting out Limerick. Plus the Commission have clearly established themselves as not indisposed to 3-seaters (unfortunately).

The many please from Leitrim residents to end the split of their county fell on deaf ears, and the line dividing the county between Sligo-North Leitrim and Roscommon-South Leitrim was moved southeast from the River Shannon and Lough Allen to a more arbitrary boundary on seemingly largely dry land to bring the Sligo seat closer to the ideal population per TD.

The Commission received more submissions regarding Leitrim (all of which urging reunification) than on anything else. Did them no good at all. Unifying probably would have led to significant redraws but would have been doable. Reinforces the commissions lazy conservative nature.

The commission did address the concerns of residents of Drogheda and its environs by expanding the 4-seat Lough constituency south into Drogheda-oriented area in County Meath and making it a 5-seater.

Yep. Not alot wrong with that call.

With the European Parliament constituencies, the commission decided to keep the four-constituency model in spite of the Republic of Ireland losing a seat, and kept the old (and still official) County Dublin in one slightly (12%, practically exactly) overpopulated constituency.  The 16.76% underpopulated North-West constitency, however, was brought closer to the national average population per MEP by adding the counties of Longford and Westmeath from the existing East constituency.  From the current 13-seat situation the only constituency where the deviation from the national average population per MEP will grow is Dublin, and that only from 9% (under) to 12% (over), so that's good.  I would have preferred, however, dividing the existing East constituency among the Dublin (renamed East or South-East, perhaps renaming South South-West in the latter case) and North-West constituencies, with North-West becoming a four-seater and a new 5-seater being formed (South fit too well to tweak).

We're going to have to try and get you onto the Commission. (Though not for your constituency naming skills )

In most parts of the U.S. that would be the case, but I could see a decent contest for the non-Fianna Fáil seat in Kerry South, although Fine Gael's Tom Sheahan would seem to be the favorite.  He might get a lot of Jackie Healy-Rae's vote if he doesn't run (or after elimination) and after it goes to the winning Fianna Fáil candidate and after the second Fianna Fáil candidate is eliminated - it would probably go to Sheahan over Breeda Moynihan Cronin is what I'm saying, although it could be relatively dilluted by then.

In an effective 2 seater, without remarkable shifts in the numbers, there's no real way I can see any result other than 1 FF; 1 FG. Healy-Rae is completely sunk in this scenario - he was one of the luckiest to get elected this year as it was (maintaining very marginal leads over both Moynihan Cronin [Lab] and Fleming [FF] at crucial stages). His share of the vote has fallen again (In 1997 he had 0.81 of a quota; by 2002, he had fallen to 0.68; this year it was 0.61). All that and he was almost certain to retire in favour of one of his Councillor sons (probably Michael), neither of which could really hope to hold onto enough of their father's votes to be competitive. The prospect of a 2-seater could well be enough to deter them from even running.

The growth of FG here has been remarkable and largely unexpected (though one particular commentator *cough* happened to see this coming in amongst an ocean of deluded predictions earlier this year). In 1997, Moynihan Cronin [Lab] (same as above) outpolled both FG candidates together. But while her share of the vote has been fairly stable (1997, 0.56 of a quota; 2002, 0.58; 2007, 0.54), FG's combined vote has leaped forward (1997, 0.55; 2002, 0.71; 2007, 1.0).

The only way Labour could get competitive would be if they could inherit the vast bulk of Healy-Rae's votes. While they probably should outdo FG in this regard, it's too big a task. FF will get the lion's share, not that they can hope for both seats, but it could well be enough to see Labour into 4th place behind FF's 2nd candidate.


BTW, you clearly have a remarkable knowledge of/interest in Irish politics and political history for someone from so far beyond these shores. Dare I ask where the interest in this little corner of the world originates?

[minionofmidas]

While having nothing to do with Irish politics, I'd like to point out that there exist the towns of North, South Carolina, and Due West, South Carolina.

That's nothing compared to West East Westphalia.

[Јas]

That's nothing compared to West East Westphalia.

[Kevinstat]

That blonde chick to that guy's right (in the picture, left in real life) seems into him.  Must have had a few.

[Kevinstat]

Dare I ask where the interest in this little corner of the world originates?

This site pretty much (starting with the old forum I think, which was in existence at the time of the 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly elections).  From a link there probably I discovered Nicholas Whyte's Northern Ireland elections site, have looked at practically every page (maybe not, but a majority I'm sure, and that includes the old (pre-1995 and pre-1993) Westminster/Assembly constituency and council pages, many of which I have looked at), and fell in love with Northern Irish politics (how is that possible, you might be thinking).  I have had an intense interest in redistricting since the late 90s, although I've gotten lazy with age and try to satisfy my redistricting cravings by prodding Trond on with whatever redistricting thread he's working on, sometimes posting suggestions for Maine and other New England states.  The recently (finally) concluded (maybe not formally) redrawing of Northern Ireland's Westminster constitencies and the abortive local government consolidation which may have scared the local politicos into resolving their differences so they and not Westminster could control the reshaping of local government) further added to my interest.  I was not very pleased with the results of either, however, and was beginning to sour on Northern Irish politics when I started following the thread on the (ROI) Irish General election of 2007.

The Irish voting system (which Northern Ireland roughly shares) interested me, even though I am not a supporter of Instant Runoff Voting which the Single Transferable Vote reduces to in single-winner elections.  In IRV, and STV, supporters of a candidate can potentially help that candidate get elected by ranking him or her lower with respect to another, "push over" candidate to get him or her above a key rival of their favored candidate, who would reliably defeat the "push over" in a decisive round in the count, but the greater the number of candidates and winners, the more complicated the method and the less reliably people can use such mischievous (sp?) tactical voting (I feel differently about sacrificial, comprimising tactical voting like that commonly found with first past the post - it's the fact some voters have to do that if they want their votes count towards a preferable result for them that bugs me, but it doesn't seem paradoxical to me).  When I learned after the election that a redrawing of the Dáil and European Parliament constituencies was underway or was happening this year, my interest in ("Southern") Irish politics increased further.

I am quite euro-centric in my political interest: Canada (I think when people talk about eurocentricity they often include Europe's ancestral European-dominated former colonies like the U.S. and Canada), Ireland, the U.K., France and Germany intermitantly, Ukraine (only because my parents and I hosted an exchange student from L'viv and have kept in touch over the years - I've been there once, my parents three times), with a fleeting interest in Scandinavia.  As far as United States elections outside my homestate of Maine (where my most in-depth knowledge is, as good as my knowledge of other parts of the world may seem) are concerned, I tend to follow most closely the rest of New England (understandably) and Kentucky (bizarrely - I think it was that it seemed like an interesting state to try to redistrict early in this decade, and I thought seats like Anne Northrup's, Ernie Flecther's and particularly Ed Whitfield's were the kind of places the Democrats would need to gain back if they were to become dominant in the House again - well two out of three ain't bad, although the Democrats still aren't anywhere near pre-1994 numbers in the House which I still think would require winning seats like Whitfield's).

So, there's a rough rundown of my political (electoral) interest.  I could go into more detail, trust me, but I'll spare you.

[minionofmidas]

fell in love with Northern Irish politics (how is that possible, you might be thinking). 

You are exhibiting signs of a strong politico-masochistic inclination.

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Hmmm... I've been thinking about doing something about Germany on British-sized constituencies recently...

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Ooh - kind sir - please don't spare me!

[Kevinstat]

Hmmm... I've been thinking about doing something about Germany on British-sized constituencies recently...

Sounds interesting.  What's the current size of the Bundestag and what would it be with British-sized (English-sized and single-member I presume) constituencies?

Ooh - kind sir - please don't spare me!

You asked for it.  It won't be that much though.  Within Maine politics, I focus largely on state Legislative races.  I actually get interested in some political issues believe it or not, although they're generally ones that effect me as a political junkie: direct election of Maine's Constitutional officers and the state auditor (more elections), reducing the size of the Legislature (interesting redistricting, particularly with nesting, plus some of the bills to reduce the size of the Legislature that come out of the Revisor of Statutes office are sh*tty in terms of how they're worded and I have tried, unsuccesfully, to get the relevant committee to clean them up.  (The Maine Legislature's committees, apart from those like Engrossed Bills and Bills in the Second Reading which sometimes don't even meet over a two-year term and the occasionally important elections committees, are joint committees, and only one favorable vote is required to get a bill or resolution out of committee, so a lot of "old chestnut" bills get debated before the full House and Senate, or sometimes just voted on in the Senate, again and again.  An "Ought to Pass" or "Ought to Pass as Amended" report of the committee must be accepted in a chamber before that chamber can consider amendments,  and sometimes the only roll call vote on an issue in each chamber is on a flawed bill or in this case constitutional amendment resolution, and Legislators could use such flaws as justification for having voted to kill the proposal, even if they simply didn't want to potentially lose their seats in the case of reducing the size of the Legislature.)  I have spoken before the Joint Standing Committee on State and Local Government twice (well, three times not counting answers to questions but on two occasions) two years apart, once against a routinely proposed constitutional amendment to have two state Senators elected from each county (to heck with the U.S. Supreme Court, the sponsor, a conservative Republican from southern Aroostook County, seems to think, but he actually represents people in rural Penobscot County who would lose representation if his Constitutional amendment went into effect).  This spring I spoke on a couple proposals to provide four-year terms for Legislators (I was neutral on the concept but opposed to the stagerred terms proposed in one of them and the 12-year apportionment cycle the stupid revisors wrote in on the other (the committee actually tried to fix that but only ended up having the 12-year cycle start in 2003 instead of the existing 1983 in the proposal - that's when Maine started redistricting two years late as a matter of course - the House redistricting had been delayed two years in the 70s) and on four proposals to reduce the size of the Legislature.  Two of them wouldn't have had the reduction happen until the 2004 elections before which the state Legislature would be redistricted anyway, but the other two not only would have gone into effect for the 2008 elections but replaced the '1983' (the start of the 10-year apportionment cycle) with '2007' and thus would have delayed Maine's apportionment following future censuses by an additional four years.  I have to get ready for dinner, but hopefully people have found this interesting.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While having nothing to do with Irish politics, I'd like to point out that there exist the towns of North, South Carolina, and Due West, South Carolina.

That's nothing compared to West East Westphalia.

My translator site renders "westliches Ostwestfalen" as "western East Westphalia" which isn't quite as ridiculous. so it would be no more ridiculous than someone living on the south side of North, saying they lived in southern North, South Carolina.  Of course nothing would exceed the idiocy of someone in the Cold War era saying they lived in western East Westphalia, Westphalia, West Germany.