NJ-07: Mike Ferguson (R) will not seek re-election

[MarkWarner08]

It's 1996 all over again.  Vulnerable incumbents in swing districts who narrowly survived in the "wave" year look at the prospect of serving in the minority for the foreseeable future and raising ungodly amounts of money only to eke out nail-biter wins and call U-Haul.

Deborah Pryce and Mike Ferguson are prime examples of politicians who would never have retired had they not recieved close challenges in 2006. Maybe they didn't want to suffer the same  fate as old Harold Volkmer.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ferguson had already raised damn near close to $1,000,000 for this race.  It's not like fundraising was an issue here—in a district with more big pharma companies than any other, no NJ-07 incumbent has to work super hard to raise lots and lots of money.

[MarkWarner08]

Ferguson had already raised damn near close to $1,000,000 for this race.  It's not like fundraising was an issue here—in a district with more big pharma companies than any other, no NJ-07 incumbent has to work super hard to raise lots and lots of money.

Did he want to run another exhausting campaign only to win by a few percentage points?

Any bets on his political future? My guess is he'll become a lobbyist for a pro-life group.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ferguson had already raised damn near close to $1,000,000 for this race.  It's not like fundraising was an issue here—in a district with more big pharma companies than any other, no NJ-07 incumbent has to work super hard to raise lots and lots of money.

Did he want to run another exhausting campaign only to win by a few percentage points?

Any bets on his political future? My guess is he'll become a lobbyist for a pro-life group.

Oh, lobbying for sure.  The bigger money would be in pharmaceuticals, though.

[Padfoot]

Why is an announcement about congressional retirement in the governor thread?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Why is an announcement about congressional retirement in the governor thread?

Because, as was said elsewhere, I accidentally misposted this here.  Ideally, they'll be merged into one thread soon.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Does anyone else think Ferguson may end up ressurecting his political career, in say 10 or even 20 years time, when things might be different in New Jersey? 

[Brittain33]

NJPoliticker reports that Bramnick said no.

It's pretty awkward if NJ Republicans feel they have a better chance of returning to power in the Assembly than they do in Congress any time soon... but probably accurate.

"There's a big difference between federal and state politics. In Trenton, Democrats had a chance to govern and they did not do well. In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War," Bramnick told PolitickerNJ.com.

[Verily]

Does anyone else think Ferguson may end up ressurecting his political career, in say 10 or even 20 years time, when things might be different in New Jersey? 

It's certainly possible, although there's nothing special about Ferguson. In 10 years he'll have been eclipsed by other nondescript big-pharma Republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

NJPoliticker reports that Bramnick said no.

It's pretty awkward if NJ Republicans feel they have a better chance of returning to power in the Assembly than they do in Congress any time soon... but probably accurate.

"There's a big difference between federal and state politics. In Trenton, Democrats had a chance to govern and they did not do well. In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War," Bramnick told PolitickerNJ.com.

I'm a little surprised Bramnick opted out of a race, considering that he was looking to run as a longshot U.S. Senate candidate, but my best guess is that it had nothing to do with "Democrats in Trenton."

A more likely option: The NRCC was less than interested in buoying the campaign of someone with little-to-no experience in serious fundraising.  Especially when the list of potential candidates includes at least two self funders (Hunterdon Freeholder-elect/Deodorant heir Mennen and Bedminster Councilman/philanthropist Finn Caspersen, Jr.), a former congressman with strong ties to the pharmecutical industry (read: huge veins of campaign cash), and an outgoing State Senate Minority Leader/ranking Appropriations member.

Honestly, two open New Jersey seats is not something the NRCC can afford right now, and there's absolutely no reason to have a candidate in NJ-07, essentially one of the three or four richest congressional districts in the country, that will need assistance in raising the $2–3 million to compete.

[Brittain33]

A more likely option: The NRCC was less than interested in buoying the campaign of someone with little-to-no experience in serious fundraising.  Especially when the list of potential candidates includes at least two self funders (Hunterdon Freeholder-elect/Deodorant heir Mennen and Bedminster Councilman/philanthropist Finn Caspersen, Jr.), a former congressman with strong ties to the pharmecutical industry (read: huge veins of campaign cash), and an outgoing State Senate Minority Leader/ranking Appropriations member.

I can see how that would make sense, on the other hand, I can't imagine the NRCC making a decision not to support him within 24 hours of the resignation and then communicating that so quickly. Bramnick, after all, brings political skills that Caspersen lacks, so they don't have a dream candidate yet. I can imagine that if Franks had declared right away something might have happened like this, but not in the absence of a strong, declared candidate.

This decision originated with Bramnick. He may well have decided that he wasn't up to tackling the fundraising challenge.

[Brittain33]

Good grief. Franks said no.

If Lance says no, I have to conclude they all think that 2008 will be a rotten year, so let Stender get in against a rich dilettante heir, cast a view votes they can use to label her a Spender, and then they can run against her in the 2010 mid-terms when conditions will have improved.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A more likely option: The NRCC was less than interested in buoying the campaign of someone with little-to-no experience in serious fundraising.  Especially when the list of potential candidates includes at least two self funders (Hunterdon Freeholder-elect/Deodorant heir Mennen and Bedminster Councilman/philanthropist Finn Caspersen, Jr.), a former congressman with strong ties to the pharmecutical industry (read: huge veins of campaign cash), and an outgoing State Senate Minority Leader/ranking Appropriations member.

I can see how that would make sense, on the other hand, I can't imagine the NRCC making a decision not to support him within 24 hours of the resignation and then communicating that so quickly. Bramnick, after all, brings political skills that Caspersen lacks, so they don't have a dream candidate yet. I can imagine that if Franks had declared right away something might have happened like this, but not in the absence of a strong, declared candidate.

This decision originated with Bramnick. He may well have decided that he wasn't up to tackling the fundraising challenge.

Well, honestly, at a state legislative level, nothing is really competitive in NJ-07.  Lance, Kean, Bramnick, Biondi, Bateman, and Stender all have very safe districts largely dominated by party machinery.  None of them really have experience running a competitive race, general or primary (aside from Stender and Lance, and that's just because the two have run for Congress before).

Good grief. Franks said no.

If Lance says no, I have to conclude they all think that 2008 will be a rotten year, so let Stender get in against a rich dilettante heir, cast a view votes they can use to label her a Spender, and then they can run against her in the 2010 mid-terms when conditions will have improved.

Oh, I still think Caspersen or Mennen could beat Stender, but they'd give Stender far too good of a chance to win for my tastes.  A rich, monied member of country club royalty holding the seat would be nothing new—just look at former Rep. Millicent Fenwick.  I just think they're largely untested candidates with nothing going for them but money and low negatives.

I really want Lance, because I know Lance and I like Lance.  He was my first choice in 1996 for Zimmer's seat, but he got out maneuvered by the Monmouth County machine and the Pappas conservative movement.

If he doesn't run, I'll be disappointed to say the least.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, thank goodness—Mike Doherty will not be a candidate for the seat.

Hunterdon Freeholder Matt Holt, grandson of former U.S. Senator Clifford Case, is mulling a bid, according to PolitickerNJ.

[Conan]

Oh, thank goodness—Mike Doherty will not be a candidate for the seat.

Hunterdon Freeholder Matt Holt, grandson of former U.S. Senator Clifford Case, is mulling a bid, according to PolitickerNJ.

He better not taint Rush Holt's name!

Anyway, either Lance or one of these rich guys would be strong candidates. Frankly, Stender can't buy the seat but one of these rich guys can so it will be interesting to see where that goes.

[MarkWarner08]

Oh, thank goodness—Mike Doherty will not be a candidate for the seat.

Hunterdon Freeholder Matt Holt, grandson of former U.S. Senator Clifford Case, is mulling a bid, according to PolitickerNJ.

Branmick astutely noted, "In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War." Those issues aren't favorable to Republicans. Is there any chance this same issue set with dissuade Diane Allen from running for Saxton's seat?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Branmick astutely noted, "In Washington, everything hinges now on the economy and on the Iraq War." Those issues aren't favorable to Republicans. Is there any chance this same issue set with dissuade Diane Allen from running for Saxton's seat?

No, it doesn't look likely.  From earlier today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Actual speculation about actual candidates interested in running?  From the Inside Edge:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Conan]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You should go back and read the margins. Do you not think the dem will get more than 47% for president this time around?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You should go back and read the margins. Do you not think the dem will get more than 47% for president this time around?

I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will win New Jersey by the same 56–40 margin that Al Gore did.  Similarly, I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will run better than Al Gore did in NJ-07.

Which, as I will repeat, he lost under the current lines according to the Rutgers Legislative Data Book.

[Conan]

While I disagree with the conclusion (Linda Stender wins because of Presidential coattails?  Really?  In NJ-07?  Bush won it twice.), the Novak-Evans says NJ-07 now has a Democratic lean.

You should go back and read the margins. Do you not think the dem will get more than 47% for president this time around?

I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will win New Jersey by the same 56–40 margin that Al Gore did.  Similarly, I do not believe that Hillary Clinton will run better than Al Gore did in NJ-07.

Which, as I will repeat, he lost under the current lines according to the Rutgers Legislative Data Book.

You keep mentioning Al Gore. However, who you should be focusing on is John Kerry who underperformed in NJ and still got 47% here IIRC. Unless Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, and I believe Mitt Romney will be, than Hillary Clinton is going to do much better than Kerry did. Usually that means she'll do better in all the districts that Kerry did.  You don't seem to grasp the concept that these districts aren't around 50/50 or even unsafe for republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You keep mentioning Al Gore. However, who you should be focusing on is John Kerry who underperformed in NJ and still got 47% here IIRC. Unless Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, and I believe Mitt Romney will be, than Hillary Clinton is going to do much better than Kerry did. Usually that means she'll do better in all the districts that Kerry did.  You don't seem to grasp the concept that these districts aren't around 50/50 or even unsafe for republicans.

John Kerry lost the district by over 6 points while winning the state by over 6 points.

Again, this is a district that Doug Forrester carried twice (easily), Tom Kean Jr. carried, Bob Franks carried, and George Bush carried (twice).  I don't know if Bob Dole carried it (I'd assume not, though he probably would have without Perot on the ballot).

Republicans outnumber Democrats here in registration, no Democrat has carried the district in a very long time, the GOP Presidential nominee is likely to either carry the district or come very close, blah blah blah.  Nothing there convinces me that this is a "Lean Democratic Takeover" district.

[Sam Spade]

Not only is that observation crap, Moderate, but I also found this observation within Novak's weekly article to be slightly ridiculous:

"Mark is a strong favorite in Colorado, but the New Mexico contest leans only slightly Democratic."

New Mexico is strange in its politics, but a generic conclusion that Mark Udall is a stronger bet to win in a general election in Colorado over Tom is wrong.

Novak should stick to getting dirt on Hillary Clinton.

[Conan]

You keep mentioning Al Gore. However, who you should be focusing on is John Kerry who underperformed in NJ and still got 47% here IIRC. Unless Rudy Giuliani is the nominee, and I believe Mitt Romney will be, than Hillary Clinton is going to do much better than Kerry did. Usually that means she'll do better in all the districts that Kerry did.  You don't seem to grasp the concept that these districts aren't around 50/50 or even unsafe for republicans.

John Kerry lost the district by over 6 points while winning the state by over 6 points.

Again, this is a district that Doug Forrester carried twice (easily), Tom Kean Jr. carried, Bob Franks carried, and George Bush carried (twice).  I don't know if Bob Dole carried it (I'd assume not, though he probably would have without Perot on the ballot).

Republicans outnumber Democrats here in registration, no Democrat has carried the district in a very long time, the GOP Presidential nominee is likely to either carry the district or come very close, blah blah blah.  Nothing there convinces me that this is a "Lean Democratic Takeover" district.

I'm not saying it's leaning dem right now....we need to wait to see who the GOP nominee is. Just answer this question...will this be one of the top races in the country?