A month between conventions - who does it help?

[The Vorlon]

The 4 week gap between the Dem and GOP conventions is, I believe, the longest ever.

Who does this help/hurt... and why?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 4 week gap between the Dem and GOP conventions is, I believe, the longest ever.

Who does this help/hurt... and why?

Neither. Conventions are over-rated.

[MODU]

I'm in agreement with Al.  Conventions have gone from defining the party, to simply Partying.  Both candidates have been the predetermined representatives of their parties for months.  

Something that might influence polling results from the GOP convention is the fact that you have the olympics before the convention (higher US nationalism as the Golds keep coming in) and the 9/11 rememberance following the convention (higher US nationalism and resolution against terror).  There will be no true way to identify how Bush did during the convention, since following 9/11 comes the debates.

[Mort from NewYawk]

It's gotta help the Republicans, if only because of the spending limit on Kerry.

Besides that, the challenger has already made his presentation and has a month to watch the Republicans and other news dominate the media.

If you were confident about a presentation, wouldn't you rather present after all of your challengers?

[ATFFL]

It's an edge to the Bush camp.  He gets time to massively outsepnd Kerry, and Kerry suffers from having to use some of his $75 million this month.  

He also gets to see how the charade the Dems played at their convention plays out.  If the tiny bounce sticks he can try a different tactic to try and get a bigger bounce.

[NHPolitico]

That's not really the big deal. It's that 2 weeks of Athens. Boston will be a distant memory after that regardless of whether the GOP had MSG on tap.

[AuH2O]

Eh, doesn't matter too much but it helps Bush a little.

Thing is, Kerry got no real boost from his convention, and I'm not really sold on the whole horse race business anyway. So how much can Bush really do between now and then? Timing not all that critical...

[TheWildCard]

If Kerry was getting a major bounce from the Democratic  convention I'd say the advantage would be in his favor. But, since the bounce has been less than steller and Bush has one more month to raise money and such it is his advantage...


Plus already knowing what your opponents have said and getting the last chance to get a major bounce before the debates is an advantage in and of itself

[© tweed]

I think it helps Bush.

[Giant Saguaro]

I don't know, but I'll say one thing about conventions - don't tell Bill Clinton, Bush 41, or Al Gore that they're over-rated. The conventions assisted all three men greatly, put all 3 in the lead, and 2 of the 3 in the lead for good, and by fairly large margins. Conventions almost always give the candidate a bounce - it's just up to the candidate to keep bouncing.

All things being normal, I'd say the month between the conventions helps Bush - assuming he uses it to his advantage, especially considering that he's got a window mainly through a decided spending advantage in which he can hit Kerry. Plus, aside from 1992, I think it usually helps the person going last the most and I don't know to what degree Kerry has impressed everyone. Bush has got to talk up the economy and go after Kerry on his votes in the Senate. Bush has a window right now, so we'll see. Because if he does not take full advantage of it now, he is WRONG.

[MODU]

Well then, we should be asking "How much of a bounce should Bush expect?"  If Bush gains a 5 point bounce (removing the boost that he might gain from Olympic national pride and the lead up to the 9/11 remembrances), it would be a clear sign that this election is all about Bush, and not Kerry.  If Bush loses, it is by his own doing, and not being out campaigned by Kerry.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It helps Bush, because he has 5 fewer weeks where he's restricted to spending $75 million.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are the Olympics usually before the conventions or after them?  I know 2000 was unusual, because the Olympics were so late.

I don't know who this helps, but I think the GOP is missing an opportunity by not having their convention immediately before the Olympics.  I think this would sustain their bounce longer.

[ijohn57s]

It helps Bush because of advertising.

[TeePee4Prez]

Helps Bush slightly, but I can say the DNC convention helped tremendously.  I think Kerry really just had to prove he could be a good candidate as opposed to Anyone But Bush and he did.  Bush is too known and all the oratory skills and visits in the world will help him little, if any.  As for the PA Poll, 12% is being too optimistic.  I would say 6-8% at this point.  One thing I did notice is the higher percentage in "For Candidate" instead of "Against Candidate" by far.