NY-19: GOP opponent drops out; Hall's "still the one."

[MarkWarner08]

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002631799

Andrew Saul was one of the NRCC's top, and few, well-funded recruits. This is the second major blow in as many days for Republican House strategists.

[Erc]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

[Mr.Phips]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

[Mr.Phips]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

They will extend the district down into the Bronx. 

[Verily]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess my only point here is that Bush carried the district by 8 points.  To make Hall "heavily protected," one would think you'd need to swap a heck of a lot of voters out.  Kerry won NY-22 by 8, so I don't think Democrats are going to want to experiment with pushing that district significantly to the right when Hinchey turns 70 next year.  That district has got to come open before 2022.

[Speed of Sound]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Unlike in that game, incumbents aren't "happy" when you turn their safe districts into ones that they can with with 52–53%.

[Sam Spade]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Unlike in that game, incumbents aren't "happy" when you turn their safe districts into ones that they can with with 52–53%.

Yet, you would be surprised how often that happens.  See, e.g. Georgia and Texas in the 1990s and Pennsylvania (GOP has gotten lucky in Michigan) in this decade.  Things change.

[MarkWarner08]

Aw.  He'd have lost anyway, but still.  Damn shame.

Here's hoping Hall will get swept out in the 2010 / 2014 / ? anti-Democrat wave, then.

He is likely to be heavily protected by the 2012 redistricting. 

Are there any GOP seats around NY-19 anymore to make that possible?

Hinchey is safe in NY-22, and Lowey is very safe in NY-18. The district won't be pushed down into the Bronx, but the Democratic-leaning areas around New City may replace a good chunk of Orange County. Not a big change, but enough to make Hall safer while leaving both Lowey and Hinchey safe.

http://www.redistrictinggame.org/

Unlike in that game, incumbents aren't "happy" when you turn their safe districts into ones that they can with with 52–53%.

Yet, you would be surprised how often that happens.  See, e.g. Georgia and Texas in the 1990s and Pennsylvania (GOP has gotten lucky in Michigan) in this decade.  Things change.

Michigan's a fine example of a partisan gerrymander. Gov. Engler wanted to reserve the delegation's 9-7 Democratic edge. With a little tinkering, the GOP gained two seats, the Democrats lost one, and Knollenberg and Rogers were solidified.

Six years later the "wave" comes and Democrats fall short in MI-08 and MI-09. The redistricting plan worked so well that Thad McCotter and Joe Knollenberg will come close enough to defeat that the DCCC will be tempted to make some IE's, but safe enough to survive a partisan tidal wave. Michigan's 2002 redistricting is to Pennsylvania's 2002 redistricting, as Abe Lincoln is to James Buchanan.

Club for Growther Tim Walberg is one of the few Congresspeople with the remarkable ability to singlehandedly lower his district's PVI. If the Walberg loses in 2008, which is quite possible, his defeat will likely be much closer than it should be.