who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[© tweed]

historically...

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

August 2007

Mitt Romney 42.6%
Rudy Giuliani 31.1%
Mike Huckabee 16.4%
Fred Thompson 4.9%
Ron Paul 4.9%

September 2007

Mitt Romney 52.4%
Rudy Giuliani 31%
Ron Paul 9.5%
Fred Thompson 4.8%
John McCain 2.4%

October 2007

Mitt Romney 44.9%
Rudy Giuliani 30.6%
Mike Huckabee 10.2%
Ron Paul 6.1%
Condoleeza Rice 4.1%
John McCain 2%
Fred Thompson 2%

[Tender Branson]

Still Romney, but there´s a good chance Giuliani may end up as the nominee as well.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Mike Huckabee or Ron Paul if something goes really wrong

[Verily]

I predict that this will be the first one of these polls in 2007 with Giuliani in neither first nor second.

[© tweed]

Mitt more than ever...

.. the Huckabee surge in Iowa is a cause for concern, because Mitt getting beat there looks bad... but Huck isn't going to win NH and a distant fourth or whatever for Rudy in Iowa is going to look even worse unless he 'officially' gives up on Iowa, ala McCain 2000.  but that's unlikely because it's been revealed his campaign is still doing some things behind-the-scenes and still think they can do will.

Iowa is Mitt by 5, Rudy in low teens...
NH is Mitt raping everyone
MI is inconclusive/Rudy by a hair, but after IA/NH I think Mitt will win
somehow Mitt is pulling into leadish territory in SC...

it goes on and on... even one of Rudy's safety nets (Florida) isn't so safe anymore.  Rudy will still perform well in NY/NJ/maybe CA on Feb, but not as well as he should and he's in a great deal of trouble that nobody in the media will acknowledge.  because, reporting anything bad about our 9/11 Saviour is tantamount to treason...

Mitt over Rudy over Huckabee, rest insignificant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Romney. Agree with Tweed's analysis.

[© tweed]

also, MSM's annointation of Rudy as the Republican nominee is going to make his IA destruction look even worse.  when the results show something like Mitt 40% Huck 30% Rudy 15%, people will wonder who the f*** these two clowns are that beat Saviour Rudy and how that's possible and how the Saviour got so badly murdered.

[Hash]

Lolz Condoleeza Rice is still on this list.

[Boris]

Tweed makes excellent points. Rudy is going to get screwed over when he, as the media-declared front runner, loses Iowa and New Hampshire to some no-name ex-Governor of Massachusetts.

[Eraserhead]

Voting for Romney instead of Giuliani for the first time but he better figure out a way to take care of Huckabee in Iowa or his battle plan may be screwed. I wonder if the Giuliani camp will start funding the Huckster in Iowa...

[Robespierre's Jaw]

As I said last month Mitt Romney will win the 2008 Republican Nomination. I think there is a good chance that Mike Huckabee could get the GOP nomination if the Romney campaign goes horribly wrong.

[MarkWarner08]

Willard Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.

[MarkWarner08]

Mitt more than ever...

.. the Huckabee surge in Iowa is a cause for concern, because Mitt getting beat there looks bad... but Huck isn't going to win NH and a distant fourth or whatever for Rudy in Iowa is going to look even worse unless he 'officially' gives up on Iowa, ala McCain 2000.  but that's unlikely because it's been revealed his campaign is still doing some things behind-the-scenes and still think they can do will.

Iowa is Mitt by 5, Rudy in low teens...
NH is Mitt raping everyone
MI is inconclusive/Rudy by a hair, but after IA/NH I think Mitt will win
somehow Mitt is pulling into leadish territory in SC...

it goes on and on... even one of Rudy's safety nets (Florida) isn't so safe anymore.  Rudy will still perform well in NY/NJ/maybe CA on Feb, but not as well as he should and he's in a great deal of trouble that nobody in the media will acknowledge.  because, reporting anything bad about our 9/11 Saviour is tantamount to treason...

Mitt over Rudy over Huckabee, rest insignificant.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Eraserhead]

Is Sam Spade the one Giuliani vote?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who's the Rice vote?

[Eraserhead]

Who's the Rice vote?

Some jokester no doubt.

[Erc]

Still Rudy, and personally I'm more sure of my vote this month than last month, where I nearly switched over to Romney.

Personally, I think that Huck helps Giuliani out.  If Romney is still competitive in IA but loses, I think he gets the major hit in NH, not Rudy.  Michigan being returned to the 15th also helps Rudy out, as, if Romney takes a hit from IA (and even further, NH), Rudy can take MI and put himself in a very good position to hold through Super Tuesday.  Even should he lose SC, he's got FL in the bag, still.

Essentially, Huck decreases Romney's chances more than Giuliani's chances, without Huck passing Giuliani himself.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Mr. Mitt - pretty confident at this  point in time - but we'll see what Huckabee does - he could put up a good fight against Romney.

[The Mikado]

Romney if he wins Iowa, Giuliani if Huckabee wins Iowa.

Romney wins Iowa.

Therefore, Romney wins the nomination.

[ShadowRocket]

His leads are pretty large in both Iowa and New Hampashire, so I would say Romney at this point.

[Eraserhead]

Mr. Mitt - pretty confident at this  point in time - but we'll see what Huckabee does - he could put up a good fight against Romney.

Either way you will be happy.

[© tweed]

a little bump to try to squeeze out more votes because it's historically important.

[Sam Spade]

Still Rudy, and personally I'm more sure of my vote this month than last month, where I nearly switched over to Romney.

Personally, I think that Huck helps Giuliani out.  If Romney is still competitive in IA but loses, I think he gets the major hit in NH, not Rudy.  Michigan being returned to the 15th also helps Rudy out, as, if Romney takes a hit from IA (and even further, NH), Rudy can take MI and put himself in a very good position to hold through Super Tuesday.  Even should he lose SC, he's got FL in the bag, still.

Essentially, Huck decreases Romney's chances more than Giuliani's chances, without Huck passing Giuliani himself.

This is about right, though no state is in the bag at this point in the game.

Rudy, but I've said that since mid-2006.

[Erc]

...Even should he lose SC, he's got FL in the bag, still....

This is about right, though no state is in the bag at this point in the game.

And the recent polling out of FL (showing Huckabee doing rather well) proves that point quite nicely.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Mr. Mitt - pretty confident at this  point in time - but we'll see what Huckabee does - he could put up a good fight against Romney.

Either way you will be happy.

No, b/c I don't see Huck winning the General.