UK Opinion Polls Thread

[Matt Damon™]

SamSpade, why not do a megathread covering your opinions on how the world in general is likely to handle the recession? I may not know enough to comment alot but I'd read it.

[Sam Spade]

SamSpade, why not do a megathread covering your opinions on how the world in general is likely to handle the recession? I may not know enough to comment alot but I'd read it.

I don't really have the time, except to make passing comments.

As to how the world is likely to handle the depression (and I say depression because that's what it will be in the near future):  Probably badly and with the wrong economic plans.  Heck, with a couple of minor exceptions, the crisis up to this point has been handled horribly worldwide, so why should we expect any changes.

[afleitch]

Now a 15 point lead with ComRes; 43-28-16

[afleitch]

Bit of a Lib Dem resurgence (from a low point) in the past two polls. Tories dropping back but Labour falling back even sharper as they fall below 30%. Support for Greens, Nats and BNP up.

[Hashemite]

Do any pollsters break down the "others" in detail?

[afleitch]

Do any pollsters break down the "others" in detail?

Yes. But the subsample is usually so small it's meaningless in most cases. Especially if support is regional.

[afleitch]

The Lib Dem surge continues, just 3 points behind Labour

ComRes

CON 41 (-2)
LAB 25 (-3)
LIB 22 (+6)

Labour are effectively in freefall shedding 9 points since the last ComRes poll of 2008.

[Sibboleth]

Every time we beat the Enemy in the Six Nations a shit poll is out the same night. I'm calling this a conspiracy to (mildly) deflate my mood. I think the evidence is clear enough.

Labour are effectively in freefall shedding 9 points since the last ComRes poll of 2008.

Meh. That says almost as much about the hilarious volatility of ComRes as much else. Sort of obvious that Labour support has been falling again, though (same sort of reasons as last year as well).

[afleitch]

Different picture from YouGov

CON 44 (+1)
LAB 32 (-)

No confirmation of Lib Dem figures.

[Sibboleth]

I believe that this is one of those "lol@thepollingindustry" moments.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Con: 48%
Lab: 28%
Who: 17%






A survey by Ipsos MORI put the Tories up four points on 48%, Labour down two on 28% and the Lib Dems unchanged on 17%.
The Prime Minister's personal ratings are also down.
Almost two thirds (64%) are dissatisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job, and a quarter (26%) are satisfied.
A third (33%) were satisfied with Mr Brown last month, and three in five (59%) dissatisfied.
Sky's political correspondent Glen Oglaza said the survey is "dire news" for Labour.
He said: "This is not the worst poll of Gordon Brown's premiership - that was last September, when the Conservatives hit 52% - but nevertheless it is absolutely dreadful for Labour and very good for the Tories."
Ipsos MORI’s February 2009 Political Monitor was carried out by telephone between February 13 and 15 among 1,001 British adults.

So, I just had my head sawed off by a whiner, so I'll ask this as best I can. Why are Labour MPs not battering down Browns door at this very moment to tear him out of his office. Why are the LD's not about to get traction?

[Sam Spade]

Anyone who approves of Gordon Brown at this point in the game needs to have his/her head examined.  Might be above Bush/Carter levels of incompetency.

[Verily]

Because Labour are a party of the working class, and the LDs are not. And British politics is all about class.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Because Labour are a party of the working class, and the LDs are not. And British politics is all about class.

Ok, so, form that response I can gather Labour has reached the floor of their support levels at somewhere between 22-25%, but that means there's a lot of space to fill, why can't the LDs tame more than a few points off Labour losses?

[Sibboleth]

When the Labour percentage goes up and down it's usually turnout (ie; within the various parts of society prone to Labour voting, rather than society as a whole) related. At least when we're in an environment in which the swingers have already swung firmly away anyway (which we are right now. Make no mistakes about that).

---

Slightly amusing that of all the polls published over the past few weeks, days even, the one to get the most attention is the one by the company with a very bad record in recent years and which is currently using a largely untested methodology (and much of the bits that aren't untested are a little dubious and tend to greatly magnify swings) Life is funny.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

When the Labour percentage goes up and down it's usually turnout (ie; within the various parts of society prone to Labour voting, rather than society as a whole) related. At least when we're in an environment in which the swingers have already swung firmly away anyway (which we are right now. Make no mistakes about that).

---

Slightly amusing that of all the polls published over the past few weeks, days even, the one to get the most attention is the one by the company with a very bad record in recent years and which is currently using a largely untested methodology (and much of the bits that aren't untested are a little dubious and tend to greatly magnify swings) Life is funny.

Would you like to be the first to suggest that the poll isn't in the general areas of the public mood?

[Verily]

When the Labour percentage goes up and down it's usually turnout (ie; within the various parts of society prone to Labour voting, rather than society as a whole) related. At least when we're in an environment in which the swingers have already swung firmly away anyway (which we are right now. Make no mistakes about that).

---

Slightly amusing that of all the polls published over the past few weeks, days even, the one to get the most attention is the one by the company with a very bad record in recent years and which is currently using a largely untested methodology (and much of the bits that aren't untested are a little dubious and tend to greatly magnify swings) Life is funny.

Would you like to be the first to suggest that the poll isn't in the general areas of the public mood?

Well, it's more extreme than the other four polls to come out over the past week. Doesn't make it wrong, but it does make it a bit questionable. MORI is, after all, not the most reliable firm historically, which is pretty established fact.

The other four polls all had the Conservatives at 41-42%, and Labour at 28-32%. (The 32% was an outlier as well; without it they all had Labour at 28% IIRC.) Which seems to me to be a very reasonable projection of the current mood.

[Sibboleth]

Would you like to be the first to suggest that the poll isn't in the general areas of the public mood?

Not quite sure what you mean.

I'm broadly (and increasingly) sceptical of the value of opinion polls, though I've no doubt that they're correct as to who the winner of the next election will be. Besides, like I said...

we're in an environment in which the swingers have already swung firmly away anyway (which we are right now. Make no mistakes about that).

Don't mistake me for someone with me head in the sand loudly yelling "lalalalalaeverythingisfiiiiiiiiiiine". Srsly.

[afleitch]

It is good to see that Labour's post conference bounce has now vanished. It will be interesting to see how closely the polls match with the result...but that is still a year away.

As way off as the Labour at 55% polls were in 1996, the end result was right - landslide.

[Verily]

It is good to see that Labour's post conference bounce has now vanished. It will be interesting to see how closely the polls match with the result...but that is still a year away.

As way off as the Labour at 55% polls were in 1996, the end result was right - landslide.

There is some credibility to the claim that the polls in 1996 were inherently flawed while the current polls are not. Of course, to some degree there may be tightening once a campaign begins--but the Progressive Conservatives could tell you that an ailing government does not always regain ground during a campaign.

[afleitch]

The 1992 General Election was a polling fiasco. Labour 'overperformed' in all the 52 polls in the month prior and in all 16 in the week prior. The Conservatives overperformed in just 1 poll out of 52 and no pollster got the vote share right (42%)

In 1997 Labour were overestimated by 4 or 5 points on average in the final week polls (and not too dissimilar to their overestimation on 1992 but the result disguised the error) Tories were underestimated by less than 0.5 points

In 2001 Labour were overestimated by 5 (4. points again in the final weeks polling and the Tories again by about a half point (0.6)

In 2005 Labour were overestimated by 2 points on average (1.9) . The pollsters were spot on with the Tories and less than a 10th of a point out on average.

Based on the last weeks polling (when pollsters start to implement and tweak turnout models) they seem to get the Tories spot on. As for Labour there may still be a slight overestimation of their vote. There is of course PoliticalBettings 'Smithson's Rule' – the lowest vote share for Labour in an opinion poll (if a few are released with overlapping fieldwork) is likely to be the correct one. We can only wait and see if that is correct.

[London Man]

So, I just had my head sawed off by a whiner, so I'll ask this as best I can. Why are Labour MPs not battering down Browns door at this very moment to tear him out of his office.

Simply put, there's no viable alternative leader out there at the moment. Everyone likely is too inexperienced (Milliband), too radical (McDonnell) or guilty by association.

I'm pretty sure we'll lose the next election and a leadership contest is unlikely to change that. A recovery before May 2010 is unlikely.

[Smid]

I'm pretty sure we'll lose the next election and a leadership contest is unlikely to change that. A recovery before May 2010 is unlikely.

When a political party is heading to almost certain defeat, it would be unwise to change leaders in an attempt to stave off the inevitable. If you install a new leader who is young and less experienced, you'll taint them with defeat and they won't be able to come back. A term or two (or even three) in Opposition may give them the necessary media experience to come back and lead the party to a future victory.

[afleitch]

Some interesting results from Populus. The headline figures were CON 42, LAB 30, LIB 19 but the pollster has started looking at employment demographics...at least as a start

Employed by the Private Sector Support CON 45, LAB 29, LIB 17
Enployed by the Public Sector (woot!) CON 38, LAB 26, LIB 23

So a healthy lead in both. While the Times reported the Tories strength amongst the private sector, to me the real interest is the public sector. It was noted that The Tories are ahead amongst NHS and local government workers, while support amongst teachers splits almost evenly between the three main parties. Hopfully there will be more polls on this later with larger sub samples.

[afleitch]

Recent roundup....

G20 seems along time ago. Brown (read Labour) may, or may not have had a bounce as a result. However the recent 'smeargate' story, which has had legs for the best part of a week and a bit has thrown Labour back below the 30% mark with 2 polls showing Labour on 26% (one was by BPIX who are unregistered so should be discarded) This may be short term; Labour last trailed in the mid 20's from June - September 2009. The Tories, treading at 40% appear to have had a slight uptick and the Lib Dems are at the high teens, low 20's...a gradual improvement in recent months.