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Author Topic: UK Opinion Polls Thread  (Read 46608 times)
politicaltipster
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« on: November 23, 2007, 06:59:46 am »
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Hope this is in the correct place, if not feel free to move it.

What does everyone about the lastest YouGov poll. Essentially, I'm projecting a Conservative majority of 30 based on putting the latest polls through Samplemiser (see link for detailed figures). Labour's economic team still have a positive rating for economic competance, which indicates that the damage from the Inland Revenue scandal is only a flesh wound.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/23/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-of-30/
« Last Edit: November 23, 2007, 07:09:57 am by politicaltipster »Logged

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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2007, 07:27:49 am »

I'm happy with it to remain here (hopefully Peter agrees) Al is not a big fan of having these things in the International Elections board but I think a 'rolling thread' with discussion should be established.
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« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2007, 07:31:21 am »
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Put them here by all means, but I'll still be reviewing UK polls on my thread on a weekly basis

Dave
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2007, 07:34:36 am »
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A rolling thread is certainly preferable to a new thread for every poll. And yes, here's better than over at elections.
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afleitch
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2007, 02:49:16 pm »

ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2007, 03:23:22 pm »
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ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18


Which leaves 15 for others. Which, ahem, stretches credibility somewhat. Almost as the fact that it was done by a polling company with such a dreadful track-record and with so little credibility that they had to change their name a while back.
 
While we're talking bilge polls, various useless polls were published on Sunday and can be found here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1075 (who the hell are "BPIX"?). Other than to sell papers, I don't get the point in all the dodgy polls by dodgy firms seen over the past week. It isn't as though we'll learn anything.
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afleitch
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« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2007, 03:37:07 pm »

ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18


Which leaves 15 for others. Which, ahem, stretches credibility somewhat. Almost as the fact that it was done by a polling company with such a dreadful track-record and with so little credibility that they had to change their name a while back.
 
While we're talking bilge polls, various useless polls were published on Sunday and can be found here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1075 (who the hell are "BPIX"?). Other than to sell papers, I don't get the point in all the dodgy polls by dodgy firms seen over the past week. It isn't as though we'll learn anything.

They are all hairs on the same brush. You can't really escape that even if you treat every pollster as 'dodgy' (the only one that is is BPIX which isn't a member of the council) Even polls comissioned by parties really can't pull numbers out of their own ass as they have to abide by certain rules. What % lead the Tories have is meaningless but it is now outwith the margin of error. They lead Labour by a comfortable (but only just majority enducing) margin comparable with what we were seeing before April and Labours 'I'm off' post-Blair period.

The main difference between then and now is that the Tories may have led the polls but the internals on trust, economy etc still weighed in Labours favour. That has been overturned.

People on both sides were blinded by the need for a 'Black Wednesday' moment. We've not had one, we don't need one or should expect one. It wasn't needed to throw out the Liberals after a decade of strong economic growth. At present it's looking like a slow 'death by a thousand tiny cuts' for the current government.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #7 on: November 26, 2007, 03:58:53 pm »
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I'm not complaining that polls are showing the Tories leading (they would certainly win the popular vote if an election was held today; denying that would be nothing short of delusional).

I just don't like rubbish polls that tell us nothing interest/nothing likely to accurate (except by chance) and that seem to be churned out in a vain hope of bolstering flagging newspaper sales. A poll that, for example, shows "others" on 15% is clearly not credible, even if it is correct in showing the Tories ahead.
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afleitch
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« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2007, 04:19:21 pm »

I'm not complaining that polls are showing the Tories leading (they would certainly win the popular vote if an election was held today; denying that would be nothing short of delusional).

I just don't like rubbish polls that tell us nothing interest/nothing likely to accurate (except by chance) and that seem to be churned out in a vain hope of bolstering flagging newspaper sales. A poll that, for example, shows "others" on 15% is clearly not credible, even if it is correct in showing the Tories ahead.

High 'others' in opinion polls often occurs immediately after a 'big' event before the polls settle again and they shrink back to below 10%. It's very much part of the 'ouch' factor when many loyalists become disenfranchised with the party for a short period of time. I'd be worried if we weren't seeing it after the week Labour has had (and as a result in the next round of polls we may see a 'deadcat bounce' for Labour as they correct themselves) If there is high SNP support on Scotland that could count for 3 or 4% of the others.
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« Reply #9 on: November 26, 2007, 08:04:11 pm »
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ComRes

CON 40
LAB 27
LIB 18


I don't doubt the Tories are ahead but I'd need to see more polls from other pollsters to back up whether a 13% Conservative lead is for 'real'. Apparently, the Conservatives lead Labour among every demographic apart from 18-24s and Scotland and on that I'm sceptical

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« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2007, 08:34:13 pm »
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High 'others' in opinion polls often occurs immediately after a 'big' event before the polls settle again and they shrink back to below 10%. It's very much part of the 'ouch' factor when many loyalists become disenfranchised with the party for a short period of time. I'd be worried if we weren't seeing it after the week Labour has had (and as a result in the next round of polls we may see a 'deadcat bounce' for Labour as they correct themselves)

Which is precisely why it's so bloody stupid to commision so many polls at the moment! (other than for the purposes of selling newspapers. Or trying to sell them).

O/c Comres (sounds like a disease of the foot) almost always shows a weirdly high "others" vote and the internals are often "strange" even by the stands of poll internals (which... certainly isn't a good sign).
You don't have to reject all polling firms to declare one to be worthless. I believe that Comres is worthless and I believe that this is shown by a quick check of the, frequently way out of line, numbers that it's been pumping out for the last two years or so.

No problem with accepting that the Tories are ahead. No problem accepting that a sizeable chunk of the Labour vote might currently be pretending that they won't vote out of protest. Big problem with accepting any value in the rubbish pumped out by certain polling companies.

---
Does this post read like one written by someone in a bad mood? If it does; apologies. I am in a bad mood, though its nothing to do with this sort of thing. Basically I'm not well at the moment, am tired and can't sleep and have overworked myself today. And my computer is playing up, because it always does that when I'm tired and irritable. Apologies if I accidentally snap at anyone.
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politicaltipster
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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2007, 12:08:29 pm »
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I might have my own misgivings about these polls but I'm going to project a Conservative majority after putting this (and other polls) through the filtering program Samplemiser.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/11/27/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-of-54/
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afleitch
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2007, 04:59:47 pm »

Based on the ComRes poll (for fun) and the probabilistic forecast we would see the following

CON 347
LAB 229
LIB 44




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True Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2007, 05:13:08 pm »
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Could someone tell me the purpose of the Lib Dems?  I just don't see it.
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politicaltipster
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2007, 11:18:59 am »
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New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/
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« Reply #15 on: December 16, 2007, 02:01:51 pm »
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New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/

It's more a feeling of becoming depressed unutterably rather than pessimistic

Dave
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afleitch
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« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2007, 04:47:03 pm »

New YG poll. Filtering it through SM produces a Conservative majority of 100 (92 with UNS).
Even a Labour hack like myself is getting a bit pessimistic and I've sold off all my Labour contracts until they fall a bit lower.

http://thepoliticaltipster.wordpress.com/2007/12/16/filtered-polling-data-conservative-majority-100/

Good lord! I had no idea Smiley I've not been checking the polls. Goody goody. I'll punch in another map to celebrate Smiley
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« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2007, 04:53:03 pm »
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Could someone tell me the purpose of the Lib Dems?  I just don't see it.

Comedy.
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afleitch
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« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2007, 05:07:04 pm »

Could someone tell me the purpose of the Lib Dems?  I just don't see it.

Comedy.

The moment the Lib Dems work out what they are for then they will dissapear in a puff of smoke due to some paradox.
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« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2007, 05:50:00 pm »
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Based on the ComRes poll (for fun) and the probabilistic forecast we would see the following

CON 347
LAB 229
LIB 44






If Hague or Howard was still Tory leader, that map would give me nightmares. But since Cameron is okay with me, its all cool. Labour can't win indefinetely.

You show the Lib Dems going from 62 seats to 44. I understand why their vote would decline (Iraq fueled their 2005 gains) but I can't see large numbers of people switching from Lib Dem to the Tories, the ideologies are too different. Or do Lib Dems hate Labour more than the Tories?

In rural and suburban England, do the Tories overperform because Labour and the Lib Dems split the left wing vote? All that blue reminds me of a generic Kansas or Nebraska county map.
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« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2007, 07:12:53 pm »
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Based on the ComRes poll (for fun) and the probabilistic forecast we would see the following

CON 347
LAB 229
LIB 44






Is that green thing in Brighton a Green gain?
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« Reply #21 on: December 19, 2007, 07:33:18 pm »
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but I can't see large numbers of people switching from Lib Dem to the Tories,

Traditionally very few (relatively speaking...) people switch their vote directly from Labour to the Tories or vice versa. A vote for the Centre Party (whether it calls itself Liberal, Alliance or LibDem) is often a stepping-stone for a switch between the two big parties. Tory victories are usually accompanied by a drop in Centre support (see 1951, 1970 and 1979). Other movements (in real elections) are usually the result of shifts in turnout patterns. Usually; you do get an election like 1997 every few decades or so.

Never forget that the party system in Britain is founded upon the fault line(s) of Class.

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In rural and suburban England, do the Tories overperform because Labour and the Lib Dems split the left wing vote? All that blue reminds me of a generic Kansas or Nebraska county map.

There is nowhere in England like Kansas or Nebraska.
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« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2007, 01:46:48 am »
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There is nowhere in England like Kansas or Nebraska.

I know, but that unbroken expanse of blue does look the same, even though the parties and voters are completely different.
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« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2007, 01:59:29 am »
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Besides, members of the BNP are closer to NE and KS voters than most tories.

OK, does anyone actually think that these early 40's numbers are going to hold for the tories?

I put in a prediction of 39% 33% 18% - and it was a CON majority of 30.
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« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2007, 03:01:47 am »
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Is that green thing in Brighton a Green gain?

Yes; that would be Brighton, Pavilion, where the Greens came third (ahead of the Lib Dems and just a hair behind the Conservatives) with 22% of the vote in 2005. Their candidate isn't running again, but one of their MEPs is, and it is certainly the Greens' best chance at a seat, so they'll be pouring all of their resources in.

There's been talk that the Lib Dems will tacitly endorse Caroline Lucas, the Green candidate (possibly using the argument that proportionally the Greens should have seats), and the Conservatives really can't advance beyond 25% there so tactical anti-Tory voting will be minimal.

It's worth noting that this was once a very safe Conservative seat. Their vote share has declined there in every election since 1979, though they didn't lose it until 1997. The Brighton & Hove Council is NOC with the Greens holding the balance; the Liberal Democrats are somewhat discredited in Brighton because of some scandal when they were in power back in the '90s; they're the smallest of the four parties on the Council. The Conservatives and Labour are stronger in the Hove and Brighton, Kemptown seats, though, while the Greens are heavily concentrated in Brighton, Pavilion.

Brighton and Hove Council
Conservative: 26
Labour: 13
Green: 12
Liberal Democrats: 2
Independent: 1
« Last Edit: December 20, 2007, 03:12:10 am by Verily »Logged
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