UK Opinion Polls Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low.

MORI/Times, 21/8/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 26/7/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 27/6/89, LD 4%

Yes, because a 22 year low is so much better. YouGov's never had them lower in the company's existance anyway. And to be fair, the party was called "The Democrats" until October of '89.

Ok Cameron seriously needs to drop Clegg and either have the balls to call another election or try and govern with a minority government. What good is the man doing him? Nothing, all he was full of hotair during the campaign, and a wasted vote on the part of the electorate that could have saved Britain from going through the travesty of him in government if they had actually voted for real change in the Tories or voted Labour.

As if Cameron would get anything passed in a minority if he suddenly dropped the Liberals. Although, it wouldn't exactly do Cameron any harm if the coalition collapsed soon. The Tories would probably win any ensuing election. Can't wait for Clegg at the debates next time round though.

[Sibboleth]

Thought they were the SaLaDs?

---

Look, Clegg gives Cameron a sizeable Commons majority of the sort he wouldn't (and won't) win on his own and a precious edge in the Lords. Why dump him? Think logically!

[Јas]

LD 7

Tonight's YouGov. The LDs hit another all time low.

MORI/Times, 21/8/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 26/7/89, LD 4%
MORI/Times, 27/6/89, LD 4%

Yes, because a 22 year low is so much better. YouGov's never had them lower in the company's existance anyway. And to be fair, the party was called "The Democrats" until October of '89.
 

I was just pointing out that 7% wouldn’t be an all-time low; not that the LDs current polling is anything better than dismal.

Anyway, assuming your rejection of the pre-Oct 89 data, the new benchmark for “all time low” would presumably be the series of 5% results between Oct 89 and Jun 90 (same source as above polls), the last one being:
ICM/Guardian, 9/6/90, LD 5%

[Vasall des Midas]

Thought they were the SaLaDs?

The new party was named Social and Liberal Democrats (SLD); after shortening this to The Democrats in October 1988, it changed to Liberal Democrats in October 1989.

[You kip if you want to...]

EdMil plummeting. Cameron more popular amoung Liberals than Clegg.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/09/ed-opens-20111-with-a-further-ratings-drop/

[Χahar]

EdMil plummeting. Cameron more popular amoung Liberals than Clegg.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/09/ed-opens-20111-with-a-further-ratings-drop/

Do you say "amoung" in Britain? I didn't know that.

[You kip if you want to...]

EdMil plummeting. Cameron more popular amoung Liberals than Clegg.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/01/09/ed-opens-20111-with-a-further-ratings-drop/

Do you say "amoung" in Britain? I didn't know that.

*among

School boy error.

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes phone
42 (+2)
34 (-2)
12 (nc)

Biggest Labour lead of the parliament. The Liberals appear to be stabalizing between 8-12, depending on the pollster.

Tonight's YouGov:
43 (+2)
40 (+2)
8 (-2)

Still, if there was an election next month, the Tories would win. They're still trusted over Labour on most things and it's hard to know how much of Labour's rise is just a protest vote, a la 1992.

[afleitch]

You have a serious simmering problem with your leader that will have to be adressed quite soon.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Ftr, the Tories didn't poll all that badly under IDS.

[You kip if you want to...]

You have a serious simmering problem with your leader that will have to be adressed quite soon.

Probably, and I trust that the powers-that-be will fix any problems. Although, there's also the issue of the Deputy Prime Minister being nothing but toxic to the government. If this was a majority or minority Tory government, the Tories would be about 10% ahead. If Labour lose the by-election, Ed'll be gone before the end of the year.

[Keystone Phil]

Ftr, the Tories didn't poll all that badly under IDS.

Thank you for standing up for a great, great man. He should be leader of the party and of the United Kingdom.

[You kip if you want to...]

Ftr, the Tories didn't poll all that badly under IDS.

Thank you for standing up for a great, great man. He should be leader of the party and of the United Kingdom.

Sure.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Holyrood Constituency: CON 9%, LAB 49%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%
Holyrood Regional: CON 9%, LAB 47%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%, GRN 3%

[afleitch]

Holyrood Constituency: CON 9%, LAB 49%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%
Holyrood Regional: CON 9%, LAB 47%, LDEM 7%, SNP 33%, GRN 3%

LOL

[afleitch]

I'll expand upon that a little. To start off with the Lib Dem figures seems about 'right'; it's in line with both Holyrood and Westminster polls. (Lib Dems have a ratio of Westminster-1 : 0.93-Holyrood in terms of votes) Labour on 49% would probably be it's largest vote share in any election in Scotland ever. SNP on 33% would actually be higher than their 2007 score, so again it might be just a few percentage points off the mark.

The Tories have been underpolled in Holyrood elections since...well ever. Not one (okay - well maybe one) Holyrood opinion poll in Scotland in 11, nearly 12 years has predicted the Tory share correctly (which has held up). They always underestimate their support. The Tories in Scotland are not really affected by being in government as they hold little mainstream support anyway. However their core vote is constant and it comes out to vote on the day.(Scottish polls haven't got to grips with turnout models so far)

Labour are vastly over estimated. I don't think that with the campaign still to get under way, they are even above 40%. I cannot see where Labour has aquired an extra 18 points from. It will be interesting to see what past Lib Dem voters are doing. Lib Dem voters in Scotland (excepting students...and what they will do this year will be interesting) are not the same beast as they are in England. The residual SDP presence is not as strong either in the party structure or where they pick up seats.

The regional poll is way off if you look at it. That's all that really needs to be said.

If I was to take a stab in the dark on constituency support I'd probably say LAB 31-37, SNP 30-35, CON 15-18, LIB 8-12

[Sibboleth]

Who did the poll? Of course the answer to 'where are these extra votes coming from?' could easily be 'people who didn't vote last time' (perhaps combined with people who did vote last time not voting this time), although that would be a massive increase even taking that into account.

[State Comptroller Atkins]

TNS/BMRB did the poll.

[afleitch]

TNS/BMRB did the poll.

Ah! That explains it. Its System 3's successor.

[Sibboleth]

Ah, right. lol.

[afleitch]

Who did the poll? Of course the answer to 'where are these extra votes coming from?' could easily be 'people who didn't vote last time' (perhaps combined with people who did vote last time not voting this time), although that would be a massive increase even taking that into account.

Now we know who conducted the poll it's not one to cause some concern.

What concerns me is any movement at all on the constituency vote from Conservative to Labour. It would mean that the Tories core vote has deserted to Labour. What YouGov etc have been showing is more interesting. The Tories are polling around 13-14% which is down on '07 (though as I mentioned, polling that in a Holyrood poll is pretty good for them). Internals seem to suggest that there is movement to the SNP.

The Tories constituency majorities, combined with the individual MSP's who hold these seats are sufficient enough to see them maintain all 5 (notionally)  I have excluded Dumfriesshire which I have as a notional Labour seat. It's an ultramarginal but considering the sitting MSP they will hold on and probably increase their majority (given that Labour voters in Upper Nithsdale/Stewartry have a reason to come out and vote...)

There are of course a slew of SNP/LAB maginals that are vulnerable but the SNP do have a chance in a number of Lib Dem held seats. Aberdeen South and Edinburgh Western are two examples. The Lib Dems with these figures (and with their two Highland MSP's retiring) are vulnerable to wipe out in the north of Scotland (less Orkney and Zetland) Notionally they don't hold the two Border seats either. This would mean we have something we have not seen in Scotland for some time; the Liberals reduced to an 'urban' presence.

[You kip if you want to...]

ICM/Guardian:
39 (nc)
35 (-2)
15 (+2)

Prefered Prime Minister
Dave Cameron - 38%
Ed Miliband - 25%
Nick Clegg - 12%

Who's best place to deal with the nation's problems?
41% Conservative-led government
36% Labour

[crypto-fascist superhero]

ICM/Guardian:
39 (nc)

Who's best place to deal with the nation's problems?
36% Labour

That seems a slight bit odd...

[Sibboleth]

Questions like that always end up with lower numbers than 'who would you vote for' questions. Note that the composition of the current government is given 41% but that the combined vote for its parties is 50.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Note that the composition of the current government is given 41% but that the combined vote for its parties is 50.

But that makes sense since the poll asked about "the Coalition" and I'm sure quite a few voters from both parties answered neither, since they would prefer a majority for their party.