UK Opinion Polls Thread

[afleitch]

The SNP have opened up a lead in Holyrood voting intentions with Ipsos-MORI

Holyrood Constituency: CON 13%(nc), LAB 36%(-5), LibDEM 10%(nc), SNP 37%(+6)

Holyrood Regional: CON 13%(+1), LAB 33%(-3), LibDEM 13%(+1), SNP 35%(+3), Greens 6%

[afleitch]

Just some comments on the poll internals

The Lib Dems are less popular among the 18-24 age group than any other (7%)
SNP support is strongest amongst those aged 25-34

The Labour lead over SNP amongst women is 7%
The SNP lead over Labour amongst men is 10%

Conservative support amongst voters born elsewhere in the UK is 28% equal with Labour

The SNP lead over Labour in the 'least affluent 20%' is 9%. It's lead in the 'most affluent 20%' is 6%

[Sibboleth]

Very different figures than from other polls recently, not that there have been many. Should probably go in the thread for the election as well.

[afleitch]

Very different figures than from other polls recently, not that there have been many. Should probably go in the thread for the election as well.

There is the problem. Anything by System 3's successor is easily ignorable. Ipsos-Mori are polling Holyrood every 3 months. The only downside is that they didn't poll during the 2007 election.

Labour were behind in most polls prior to the 2010 GE, since then they have bounded ahead. The question of course is what was this bounce based on; was it a reflection on what was happening in Westminster. Who know's. For the record they sample days were during a terrible week for 'Scottish' Labour who were caught out by the Megrahi issue and were lambasted for voting down a budget despite getting the concessions they had demanded.

Though the effect of that is weakened by the hoardes of voters who would say 'What's a budget, whats Megrahi and who is Iain Gray?'

[Vasall des Midas]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

[afleitch]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

What is this 'National' Government you speak of?

[You kip if you want to...]

UKIP gaining on the Liberals on Angus Reid (joke pollster)

41 (+1)
34 (+1)
10 (-1)
7 (+1)

[Vasall des Midas]

I fail to see any poll showing the SNP "opening a lead". Unless you meant against the National Government.

What is this 'National' Government you speak of?

The English one. It is called the National Government because it is supported by only one of the four nations of the United Kingdom.

[Sibboleth]

Apparently YouGov give us an eleven point lead. A bit like that cream that comes in squirty can thing; pleasant enough, but you know it's artificial.

[Vasall des Midas]

It's not artificial - it's sweetened though. More than you would if you whipped your own cream.

[You kip if you want to...]

If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

[afleitch]

If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

I would agree, and not for any partisan reason. Labour's support is based on opposition to the government. The same was true until about this time last year for the Tories.

[You kip if you want to...]

If David Cameron went to the palace tomorrow and asked for an April 10th election, it's safe to say he'd probably still be PM on April 11th. Hypothetically, in my opinion and all that...

I would agree, and not for any partisan reason. Labour's support is based on opposition to the government. The same was true until about this time last year for the Tories.

Exactly. Although the I doubt the Liberals would pick much support back up. Also, don't forgot, Labour (as a party) is beyond skint. The 2010 election was done on such a budget, i'm suprised that Lidl didn't endorse them.

[You kip if you want to...]

ComRes
40 (-2) 37 (+1) 11 (nc)

The Budget:
I believe that George Osborne, the Chancellor, is “on my side” in dealing with the country’s economic problems

Agree: 23%

Disagree: 50%

Unsurprisingly, 53% of Conservative voters agree – compared with 8% of Labour and 28% of Lib Dem voters.

When Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, talks about the “squeezed middle” he is talking about people like me and my family

Agree: 48%

Disagree: 28%

On this question, there is less of a partisan divide: 68% of Labour voters agree, compared to 40% of Conservative and 42% of Lib Dem voters.

Cancelling the planned 1p increase in fuel duty in the Budget would not be enough to help motorists

Agree: 80%

Disagree: 10%

The cuts are unfair because they will be felt more by the poor than by wealthier households

Agree: 63% (Nov: 56%; Dec: 57%, Feb: 63%)

Disagree: 25% (Nov: 30%; Dec: 28%, Feb: 24%)

There is a significant party split: 90% of Labour supporters agree, compared with 27% of Conservative and 53% of Lib Dems.

Bankers are making a fair contribution to the cost of getting the public finances back on track

Agree: 9%

Disagree: 78%

Finally, we asked about the Duke of York:

David Cameron should have sacked Prince Andrew from his role as an international trade ambassador when his judgement over personal friendships was first called into question

Agree: 38%

Disagree: 33%

Don’t know: 29%

[You kip if you want to...]

March's Ipsos/Mori
41 (-2) 37 (+4) 10 (-3)

Approval ratings (approve/disapprove):
David Cameron - 43/51 (+4/-1)
Nick Clegg - 34/56 (nc/-1)
Ed Miliband - 37/42 (+3/-1)
"The Government" - 36/59 (+5/-1)
George Osbourne - 36/45 (-4/+22, changes since June 2010)

Economy:
"Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will
improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?"
23/23/51 (+4/nc/-5)

"Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy?"
31/28/6

"Who do you think would make the most capable Chancellor?"
Ed Balls - 36%
George Osbourne - 35%

"Do you think the government has on the whole made the right decisions or the wrong decisions about where spending cuts should be made?" (Changes since October 2010)
Yes 35 (-6)
No 55 (+17)

Libya:
"Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the government is
handling the crisis in Libya?"
42/42

Mori notes that Yugoslavia handling in 1999 was 49/28. Not sure how useful their point is though...

The preferred chancellor numbers have gotten me all excited for the opposition response to the budget! I wonder how Labour's gonna try and spin any fuel duty reduction as bad...

[afleitch]

Only posted as it is a curious poll

ICM

Conservative 37
Labour 36
Lib Dem 16

[Sibboleth]

What's particularly curious is that it's not that different from their last one; for some reason ICM are showing a subtly different landscape to the other companies (which is more interesting than the ups and downs all polling firms will inevitably show from time to time). Who's right?

(of course if the last General Election is anything to go by, the answer to that is 'no one').

[You kip if you want to...]

YouGov
44 (+3) 36 (-2) 9 (-2)

ComRes (Phone)
41 (+2) 35 (nc) 13 (+1)

End of the budget bounce? Ed Milibandela/Suffrag'Ed bounce? Who knows?

[You kip if you want to...]

Interesting stuff from this week's Sunday Times/YouGov:

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-st-results-22-240711.pdf

43 (-1) 35 (-1) 10 (+1)

David Cameron approval:
39 (-2)/55 (+2) (-16 net)

Ed Miliband approval:
35 (+3)/50 (-3) (-15 net)

Nick Clegg approval:
24 (nc)/66 (nc) (-42 net)

To those who subscribe to the mantra that approval is more important than voting intention.

At the start of the month, Ed (when he was just that idiot who repeated the "get around the table" soundbite) was a -34.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

What's up with this sky-rocketing LibDem vote?

They've gone from

8-8-9-8-8-9-9-8-8-9-8-9-8-9-8-9
in the polls to
10-10-11-11-10-10-11-10-11-10-11-11-10

What gives?

[You kip if you want to...]

What's up with this sky-rocketing LibDem vote?

They've gone from

8-8-9-8-8-9-9-8-8-9-8-9-8-9-8-9
in the polls to
10-10-11-11-10-10-11-10-11-10-11-11-10

What gives?

Nick Clegg has barely reared his head (bar a forgettable soundbite or two) since the referendum. That'll be why. No doubt the questions about the Liberal leadership will come back once we hit conference season.

Their popularity's lack of movement over the past few months is just a reflection of how totally irrelevent they are.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

My theory is that the Tories look dirty, and saying you back the LibDems is a way of saying "I back Cameron, but he's dirty"

[You kip if you want to...]

My theory is that the Tories look dirty, and saying you back the LibDems is a way of saying "I back Cameron, but he's dirty"

Saying you back the LDs is like saying you no ideals of your own anyway. How anyone who voted for their last manifesto can still back them is beyond me...

[Sibboleth]

People read manifestos?

[You kip if you want to...]

People read manifestos?

Alright, anyone who voted for this, this or even this.